Real World Event Discussions

Trump's Budget

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Monday, July 13, 2026 16:10
VIEWED: 32160
PAGE 16 of 32

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, April 2, 2019 12:44 PM

I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2

These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%

Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%

Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%

Rev19 253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst --98 --203 --012 +$09 --227
Act19 -100 -205 --013 +$09 --234

Rev19 253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst --98 --303 --317 --310 --537
Act19 -100 -305 --318 --310 --544
Projtd -985 -985 --985 -

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, April 2, 2019 1:08 PM

Reposted for top of the page reference:

And with today's new data:
2019Q1 data downgraded from $233.2 B to $206.9 B, which was the Quarter that the Election was in, ending in December.

The 3rd consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.

Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

370.9 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

246.3 FY2018 Q4
244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
233.2 FY2019 Q1 (est)
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4

Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So

RUE

Tuesday, April 2, 2019 3:20 PM

Are these figures in inflation-adjusted (constant) dollars? Sorry if I've asked in the past and forgotten the answer.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, April 2, 2019 10:26 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

Each of the Agencies that I pull data from has refinagled their historical data retroactively, but I don't revise the entire table to adapt to the change. I mention in the posts when I see these occur, and I revise some of the past data, to mesh or show trends when it is too conflicting. I have not deleted the posts which have the pre-revised data. I don't know how often they do these historical revisions, I only post about the ones which occurred since the start of each thread.
You can see "new data" notations - I think those changes were last summer, but whenever, I discussed how I treated them. I did need to deal with them, because the data under the existing formulas was discontinued, and I'm not going to make up numbers on my own. For these reasons, much of the older data or older posts contain data no longer available, because the agency has erased from history those figures from the online database.

My intent has always been to use the hard number data, as expressed at that moment in time, in the hope that those historical figures would not change. I try to avoid percentages comingled with the raw numbers, and Seasonally Adjusted nonsense. Those are tools for summary or analysis to be applied to the raw data. I'm not going into the nuts and bolts data, but I strive to use as raw of data as can be reliably obtained.
The Employment Facts data on Initial Jobless Claims is the worst, because I post only the figure of the first reporting, and they vastly revise those numbers a week later, which I do not alter or reflect in my table.

Also, thanks for asking. In the interest of transparency it is important for the numbers and discussion to be clear and commonly understood, and this helps me know if I am being clear enough. Some of my continuing posts have become a mess, and although I periodically clean and prune them a bit, I expect there is still too much that I leave in.

Edit: it looks like with new data GDP, I went back to 2000. The posts prior to 27 July 2018 have the prior version of data.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, April 6, 2019 7:16 AM

Updated with today's CBO report, to make do until MTS is released.

I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2

These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%

Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%

Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%

Rev19 253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst --98 --203 --012 +$09 --227
Act19 -100 -205 --013 +$09 --234

Rev19 253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst --98 --303 --31

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, April 8, 2019 4:02 AM

Budget. Reposted for top of the page reference.

From February.

In May 2018 CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of the PRIOR MONTH, or 7 weeks before.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The new CBO report is from January 2019. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54918
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.

The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018, and then Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates from January 2019:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBR CBOt CBOD CBDb CBGDP || CBR CBOt CBODb CBGDP
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5264 6351 1087 33851 29803 || 5446 6881 32581 29862
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5063 6029 $965 32542 28677 || 5254 6446 31353 28738
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 4886 5778 $893 31367 27608 || 4956 6160 30331 27667
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4659 5553 $895 30042 26595 || 4647 5859 29175 26656
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4446 5305 $859 28730 25583 || 4448 5539 28020 25642
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4232 5202 $971 27468 24621 || 4208 5347 26922 24672
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4016 5055 1039 26179 23716 || 4012 5140 25759 23778
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3830 4775 $945 24877 22872 || 3841 4814 24598 22939
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3682 4548 $866 23675 22034 || 3686 4589 23522 22120
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3493 4448 $955 22546 21136 || 3515 4412 22465 21252
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3339 4131 $792 21375 20103 || 3329 4108 21461 20236
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 20206 19178

2029: 5672 7042 33681 31006

In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

In the middle section, the CBO Analysis from May 2018:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.

The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028. The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period.
Which would exaggerate by $3 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected.

The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget, from January 2019.

Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.

Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA.

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

As can be seen, actual figures have GDP far outpacing the forecasts, as well as Outlays are less

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, April 8, 2019 4:05 AM

Budget. Reposted for top of the page reference.

From 8 November.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is a repost from 18 May, with Budget Deficit, Actual Deficit, Federal Debt, and GDP. The Excess column is the amount the Debt exceeds the GDP.

I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.

Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:

FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt FY NatGDP Excess
(EST) $ 3,329 B $ 4,108 B $ 779 B || $~ 779 B $~ 20,985 $20,210.9B $~774 B
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 $19,177.2B 1028.5B
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 $18,469.9B 1069.6B
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 $17,982.9B $137.2B
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 $17,243.6B $550.9B
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 $16,515.9B $203.5B
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 $16,027.2B $023.7B
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 $15,379.2B
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 $14,798.5B
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 $14,414.6B
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 $14,752.4B
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 $14,322.9B
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4 $13,684.7B
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3 $12,888.9B
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7 $12,088.6B
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0 $11,332.4B
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4 $10,876.9B
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 $10,564.6B
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7 $10,148.2B
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5 $09,510.5B
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2 $08,954.8B
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2 $08,483.2B
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5 $07,978.3B
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6 $07,583.4B

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Quote:
Once I add in FY2018 figures, we should see that with Deficit growth slowing, GDP growth exploding, the Excess will be well under $1 Trillion for the first time since Obama raced to get there.

Compared to the Brink of Economic Nightmare Horror that Obama brought us to, this now shows promise, hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a reversal of the path we were on.

Obama's trajectory has been Trumped

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, April 11, 2019 8:29 AM

Updated with today's MTS.

I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2

These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%

Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%

Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%

Rev19 253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst --98 --203 --012 +$09 --227
Act19 -100 -205 --013 +$09 --234

Rev19 253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst --98 --303 --317 --310 --537
Ac

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, April 11, 2019 11:36 AM

Updated with some 2018 data from CBO.

Budget.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is a repost from 18 May, with Budget Deficit, Actual Deficit, Federal Debt, and GDP. The Excess column is the amount the Debt exceeds the GDP.

I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.

Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:

FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt FY NatGDP Excess
(EST) $ 3,329 B $ 4,108 B $ 779 B || $~1255B $~ 21,461 $~20,236 B $1225 B
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 $19,177.2B 1028.5B
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 $18,469.9B 1069.6B
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 $17,982.9B $137.2B
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 $17,243.6B $550.9B
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 $16,515.9B $203.5B
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 $16,027.2B $023.7B
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 $15,379.2B
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 $14,798.5B
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 $14,414.6B
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 $14,752.4B
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 $14,322.9B
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4 $13,684.7B
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3 $12,888.9B
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7 $12,088.6B
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0 $11,332.4B
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4 $10,876.9B
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 $10,564.6B
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7 $10,148.2B
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5 $09,510.5B
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2 $08,954.8B
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2 $08,483.2B
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5 $07,978.3B
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6 $07,583.4B

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Quote:
Once I add in FY2018 figures, we should see that with Deficit growth slowing, GDP growth exploding, the Excess will be well under $1 Trillion for the first time since Obama raced to get there.

Compared to the Brink of Economic Nightmare Horror that Obama brought us to, this now shows promise, hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a reversal of the path we were on.

Obama's trajectory has been Trumped.

My prior table had underestimated this year&#

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, April 26, 2019 9:22 PM

And with today's new GDP data:
$197.6 B for 2019Q2 (est). More than I expected, and enough to surpass the 4-Quarter $1 T Mark.

The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21062.7

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.