A thread for Democrats Only
POSTED BY: THGRRI
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 15:36
VIEWED: 755368
PAGE 166 of 725
Why Presidents have less control over the economy than you think they do.
More at www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-29/what-economists-still-don-t
-get-about-2008-crisis
All of these papers have one thing in common — they use debt to predict recessions years in advance. That fits with the emerging post-crisis wisdom that problems in credit markets are the source of both financial crashes and the ensuing economic slowdowns.
Gennaioli and Shleifer explain these patterns by turning to their own preferred theory of human irrationality — the theory of extrapolative expectations. Basically, this theory holds that when asset prices rise — home values, stocks and so on — without a break, investors start to believe that this trend represents a new normal. They pile into the asset, pumping up the price even more, and seeming to confirm the idea that the trend will never end. But when the extrapolators’ money runs out, reality sets in and a crash ensues. Gennaioli, Shleifer, and their coauthors have been only one of several teams of researchers to investigate this idea and its implications in recent years.
When extrapolative expectations are combined with an inherently fragile financial system, a predictable cycle of booms and busts is the result. At some point during good economic times, irrational exuberance takes hold, pushing stock prices, house values, or both into the stratosphere. When they inevitably come down, banks collapse, taking the rest of the economy with them.
This story, if it became the standard model of the business cycle, would represent a true revolution in macroeconomics. It discards two pillars of recent macroeconomic thought — rational expectations, and shock-driven unpredictable recessions. It would represent a triumph for Minsky’s ideas, and for those outside the academy who have long urged macroeconomists to pay more attention to debt markets and human psychology. And if the code of booms and busts can finally be cracked, there may be ways for central banks, regulators or other policy makers to head off crises before they begin, instead of cleaning up afterward.
So far, Gennaioli and Shleifer’s story isn’t close to achieving dominance in macro. But of all the ideas being put forth in the field, this seems like the most interesting to watch.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Trump says Don Jr. wanted dirt on Clinton from Russian lawyer
Donald Trump acknowledged Sunday that his oldest son was trying to dig up dirt on Hillary Clinton when he met a woman linked to the Kremlin in 2016 — an attempt to re-cast the Trump Tower meeting as an innocuous part of campaigning as the president gets energized about hitting the trail again this year.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/05/trump-donald-junior-clinton-
russia-764357
T 
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For decades the right has tried to shout down any attempt to sand down some of the rough edges of capitalism, whether through health guarantees, income supports, or anything else, by yelling “socialism.” Sooner or later people were bound to say that if any attempt to make our system less harsh is socialism, well, they’re socialists.
The truth is that there are hardly any people in the U.S. who want the government to seize the means of production, or even the economy’s commanding heights. What they want is social democracy – the kinds of basic guarantees of health care, protection against poverty, etc., that almost every other advanced country provides. The GOP is opposed.
Denmark, where tax receipts are 46 percent of GDP compared with 26 percent in the U.S., is arguably the most social-democratic country in the world. According to conservative doctrine, the combination of high taxes and aid to “takers” must really destroy incentives both to create jobs and to take them in any case. So Denmark must suffer from mass unemployment, right? The GOP is wrong.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kM3v
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kM3O
Denmark runs a welfare state beyond the wildest dreams of U.S. progressives and still has a highly successful economy.
More at www.nytimes.com/2018/08/05/opinion/notes-on-a-butter-republic.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Trump says Don Jr. wanted dirt on Clinton from Russian lawyer
Donald Trump acknowledged Sunday that his oldest son was trying to dig up dirt on Hillary Clinton when he met a woman linked to the Kremlin in 2016 — an attempt to re-cast the Trump Tower meeting as an innocuous part of campaigning as the president gets energized about hitting the trail again this year.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/05/trump-donald-junior-clinton-
russia-764357
T
Isn't that story over a year old now?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
For decades the right has tried to shout down any attempt to sand down some of the rough edges of capitalism, whether through health guarantees, income supports, or anything else, by yelling “socialism.” Sooner or later people were bound to say that if any attempt to make our system less harsh is socialism, well, they’re socialists.
The truth is that there are hardly any people in the U.S. who want the government to seize the means of production, or even the economy’s commanding heights. What they want is social democracy – the kinds of basic guarantees of health care, protection against poverty, etc., that almost every other advanced country provides. The GOP is opposed.
Denmark, where tax receipts are 46 percent of GDP compared with 26 percent in the U.S., is arguably the most social-democratic country in the world. According to conservative doctrine, the combination of high taxes and aid to “takers” must really destroy incentives both to create jobs and to take them in any case. So Denmark must suffer from mass unemployment, right? The GOP is wrong.
Denmark runs a welfare state beyond the wildest dreams of U.S. progressives and still has a highly successful economy.
More at www.nytimes.com/2018/08/05/opinion/notes-on-a-butter-republic.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
If I paid 46% of my income to taxes instead of what I currently do, I'd be homeless.
I'll pay 15% for Social Security and Medicare (Yes, you absolutely do count the half the company pays for you). I'll pay 10% on roughly 4k income Federal tax, so about 3% more. 5% on almost every dime to the state. About 10% of my income will pay my property taxes, and since I'm looking at spending about 80% of what I make this year another 7.5% is going to sales taxes.
Oh... silly me.
I'm already going to be paying 40.5% of my income to taxes this year.
And I make signifigantly less than the Federal Poverty level for a single person.
Sucks to be me, huh?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:There is poverty in Denmark, but far less than in America. Unless you learned to speak Danish, you would be poor there, too, 6ixStringJack.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
If I paid 46% of my income to taxes instead of what I currently do, I'd be homeless.
I'll pay 15% for Social Security and Medicare (Yes, you absolutely do count the half the company pays for you). I'll pay 10% on roughly 4k income Federal tax, so about 3% more. 5% on almost every dime to the state. About 10% of my income will pay my property taxes, and since I'm looking at spending about 80% of what I make this year another 7.5% is going to sales taxes.
Oh... silly me.
I'm already going to be paying 40.5% of my income to taxes this year.
And I make signifigantly less than the Federal Poverty level for a single person.
Sucks to be me, huh?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
www.demos.org/blog/10/20/15/united-states-vs-denmark-17-charts
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:There is poverty in Denmark, but far less than in America. Unless you learned to speak Danish, you would be poor there, too, 6ixStringJack.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
If I paid 46% of my income to taxes instead of what I currently do, I'd be homeless.
I'll pay 15% for Social Security and Medicare (Yes, you absolutely do count the half the company pays for you). I'll pay 10% on roughly 4k income Federal tax, so about 3% more. 5% on almost every dime to the state. About 10% of my income will pay my property taxes, and since I'm looking at spending about 80% of what I make this year another 7.5% is going to sales taxes.
Oh... silly me.
I'm already going to be paying 40.5% of my income to taxes this year.
And I make signifigantly less than the Federal Poverty level for a single person.
Sucks to be me, huh?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
www.demos.org/blog/10/20/15/united-states-vs-denmark-17-charts
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
I'm not poor.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Trump says Don Jr. wanted dirt on Clinton from Russian lawyer
Donald Trump acknowledged Sunday that his oldest son was trying to dig up dirt on Hillary Clinton when he met a woman linked to the Kremlin in 2016 — an attempt to re-cast the Trump Tower meeting as an innocuous part of campaigning as the president gets energized about hitting the trail again this year.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/05/trump-donald-junior-clinton-
russia-764357
T
Isn't that story over a year old now?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Here you go dummy. How is it you could be in thread after thread giving opinions on whats going on with Trump and still be so clueless? We've been debating the collusion ( conspiracy ) of the Trump administration and the russians since before the election with you and others, and still you act or remain clueless about the facts.
Because you're a moron let me spell it out for you. Trump admits to collusion, collusion, collusion...tick tock dummy
T
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Quote:a second quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
And I make signifigantly less than the Federal Poverty level for a single person.
Sucks to be me, huh?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Quote:You are confusing me, 6ixStringJack. You say "I'm not poor" and you also say "And I make signifigantly less than the Federal Poverty level for a single person. Sucks to be me, huh?" Maybe the word "signifigantly" with two g's (your spelling, not mine) means something different than the alternative word significantly with one g?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'm not poor.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
6ixStringJack, it might be time to decide if you are a member of the political party for poor people or the political party for rich people. Or are you in the political party of independent people? I don't know the name of that party. I don't think it exists.
This is probably as good a place as any to say that the Democratic party is extremely different from the Republican party. I know it is to the advantage of Russia to claim both parties are equal failures, but I believe that is absolutely false. Russia wants indecision, gridlock or random chaos in American government. One party really is superior to the other. Decide one way or the other. And there is no third way.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:a second quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
And I make signifigantly less than the Federal Poverty level for a single person.
Sucks to be me, huh?
Do Right, Be Right. :)Quote:You are confusing me, 6ixStringJack. You say "I'm not poor" and you also say "And I make signifigantly less than the Federal Poverty level for a single person. Sucks to be me, huh?" Maybe the word "signifigantly" with two g's (your spelling, not mine) means something different than the alternative word significantly with one g?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'm not poor.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
6ixStringJack, it might be time to decide if you are a member of the political party for poor people or the political party for rich people. Or are you in the political party of independent people? I don't know the name of that party. I don't think it exists.
This is probably as good a place as any to say that the Democratic party is extremely different from the Republican party. I know it is to the advantage of Russia to claim both parties are equal failures, but I believe that is absolutely false. Russia wants indecision, gridlock or random chaos in American government. One party really is superior to the other. Decide one way or the other. And there is no third way.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Both sides suck. Neither is superior to the other. I don't have to decide anything. And if you're going to play the Russian card and call all people who believe the truth that both sides suck Russians, I'm going to choose whatever side your not on every time.
Think about that when Trump gets re-elected in 2020.
And no. I'm not poor. Just because I'm currently making below the poverty level doesn't make me poor. I have no mortgage, I have zero debt, I've got an 822 credit score with easy access to 5 times my current yearly wages in credit, I've got over a year of wages that are in liquid funds and I'll bank at least 20% of my income this year even after paying for some major purchases that need paying.
Most Americans can't even put $400 together for an emergency, and most Americans make more money than me.
I'm not rich, but I'm certainly not poor.
There's a whole world of grey in the middle, Second. You need to stop looking at everything in only Black or White.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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