Trump's Budget
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Monday, July 13, 2026 16:10
VIEWED: 32160
PAGE 7 of 32
Reposting for ease of comparison:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
From the President's Federal Budget, FY2018:
Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2027 $5,724B $5,708B $-26B $31,053
2026 $5,417B $5,527B $110B $29,557
2025 $5,130B $5,306B $176B $28,134
2024 $4,864B $5,073B $208B $26,779
2023 $4,615B $4,933B $319B $25,489
2022 $4,390B $4,832B $442B $24,261
2021 $4,161B $4,617B $456B $23,093
2020 $3,982B $4,470B $488B $21,981
2019 $3,814B $4,340B $526B $20,947
2018 $3,654B $4,093B $440B $20,014
2017 $3,460B $4,062B $603B $19,162
2016 $3,268B $3,853B $585B $18,407
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. The GDP for 2016 are revised down to the reality of Obamanomics.
Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I'm wondering if maybe these tables would be easier to read if there were something other than a single space between cells?
Maybe a pair of "||", and however many you'd have to throw between column headers to get everything even.
EDIT:
Quote:
Year || Revenue ||| Outlays ||| Deficit || Nat GDP
2027 || $5,724B || $5,708B || $-26B || $31,053
2026 || $5,417B || $5,527B || $110B || $29,557
2025 || $5,130B || $5,306B || $176B || $28,134
2024 || $4,864B || $5,073B || $208B || $26,779
2023 || $4,615B || $4,933B || $319B || $25,489
2022 || $4,390B || $4,832B || $442B || $24,261
2021 || $4,161B || $4,617B || $456B || $23,093
2020 || $3,982B || $4,470B || $488B || $21,981
2019 || $3,814B || $4,340B || $526B || $20,947
2018 || $3,654B || $4,093B || $440B || $20,014
2017 || $3,460B || $4,062B || $603B || $19,162
2016 || $3,268B || $3,853B || $585B || $18,407
Don't know what the column headers are since they weren't on the table, but the data seems a lot easier to read this way.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:You don't see the column headers in the post above yours?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'm wondering if maybe these tables would be easier to read if there were something other than a single space between cells?
Maybe a pair of "||", and however many you'd have to throw between column headers to get everything even.
EDIT:Quote:
2027 || $5,724B || $5,708B || $-26B || $31,053
2026 || $5,417B || $5,527B || $110B || $29,557
2025 || $5,130B || $5,306B || $176B || $28,134
2024 || $4,864B || $5,073B || $208B || $26,779
2023 || $4,615B || $4,933B || $319B || $25,489
2022 || $4,390B || $4,832B || $442B || $24,261
2021 || $4,161B || $4,617B || $456B || $23,093
2020 || $3,982B || $4,470B || $488B || $21,981
2019 || $3,814B || $4,340B || $526B || $20,947
2018 || $3,654B || $4,093B || $440B || $20,014
2017 || $3,460B || $4,062B || $603B || $19,162
2016 || $3,268B || $3,853B || $585B || $18,407
Don't know what the column headers are since they weren't on the table, but the data seems a lot easier to read this way.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
I'll think more about the vertical bars. Too many of them cause word-wrapping, further reducing the amount of data per line.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
You don't see the column headers in the post above yours?
My mistake.
They are a bit harder to line up because the way they look in the "Write your response here: " box is different then they ultimately look when posted to these forums. Sucks we can't use a monospace font.
It's also harder since the forum seems to ignore any more than one single space character next to each other.
In any case, this is infinitely easier to read now.
Quote:
Year ||| Revenue || Outlays ||| Deficit || Nat GDP
2027 || $5,724B || $5,708B || $-26B || $31,053
2026 || $5,417B || $5,527B || $110B || $29,557
2025 || $5,130B || $5,306B || $176B || $28,134
2024 || $4,864B || $5,073B || $208B || $26,779
2023 || $4,615B || $4,933B || $319B || $25,489
2022 || $4,390B || $4,832B || $442B || $24,261
2021 || $4,161B || $4,617B || $456B || $23,093
2020 || $3,982B || $4,470B || $488B || $21,981
2019 || $3,814B || $4,340B || $526B || $20,947
2018 || $3,654B || $4,093B || $440B || $20,014
2017 || $3,460B || $4,062B || $603B || $19,162
2016 || $3,268B || $3,853B || $585B || $18,407
Quote:
I'll think more about the vertical bars. Too many of them cause word-wrapping, further reducing the amount of data per line.
Yeah. Word wrapping would again make these graphs next to unreadable on the forums here.
Maybe I'll take the dive and create yet another Google account to put these spreadsheets into. I don't want to use an account with my name in it, and my dummy account I used to make the alternate ID I was using around here I can no longer get into since I didn't save the password anywhere and I lost access when my old computer crashed.
Have you ever used Google Spreadsheets? I love the ability to make a document and then share it with anyone on the fly just by opening access to anybody with the link and then giving it to them. They're pretty amazing considering they're free, compared to paying hundreds of dollars for a software package like M$. They're advertisement free as well, which is even more amazing.
I wouldn't go putting any important or personal information in them though. :)
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Well, maybe not.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Finally, now this could be a useful link:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPQuote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
From the President's Federal Budget, FY2019:
Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177
Here should be a link to the source data (bunch of Excel at this site):
https://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2018/gdp1q18_adv.htm
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&ste
p=3&isuri=1&1921=survey&1903=89
This one looks helpful:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&ste
p=3&isuri=1&1921=survey&1903=86
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Sounds like yesterday the CBO released a report, showing a half Trillion dumped into the coffers in April. That is apparently the most in any month in history.
I gotta look that up in detail.
It was $515 Billion.
Revenues from Individual Income is $30-40 Billion more than CBO projected for April.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9
Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2
CBO to issue analysis of FY2019 Budget on 24 May.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/5365
1-outlook.pdf
These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.
The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.
Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.
Figures in Billions.
CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept
Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107
Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -616 -616 --616 --544 --544 --544 --544 --544
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%
Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06
Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -603 -603 --603 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%
Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209
Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --738
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --633
Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Doing this again using new data from CBO:
Quote:Apparently the Q1 2018 update has GDP at 19.965 Trillion.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
From the President's Federal Budget, FY2019:
Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).
The projected change from 19.177 to 20.029 for 4 quarters (0.852) would average 0.213 per quarter.
Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,085. An increase of $56 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.
Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,658 $5,935B $6,148B $213B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,145 $5,623B $5,923B $301B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,703 $5,348B $5,717B $369B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,309 $5,063B $5,497B $433B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $26,956 $4,792B $5,320B $527B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,661 $4,503B $5,133B $630B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,425 $4,206B $4,916B $710B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,250 $3,955B $4,730B $775B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,123 $3,726B $4,573B $847B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,059 $3,539B $4,386B $846B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,085 $3,457B $4,194B $738B
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177
This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $1.570 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.
And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.
Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,207 $6,042B $6,143B $101B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,639 $5,727B $5,919B $193B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,142 $5,447B $5,713B $266B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,693 $5,162B $5,494B $331B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,285 $4,892B $5,317B $424B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,935 $4,572B $5,131B $559B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,644 $4,282B $4,914B $632B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,414 $3,997B $4,729B $732B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,232 $3,747B $4,572B $845B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,113 $3,559B $4,386B $846B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,085 $3,457B $4,194B $738B
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177
This method of GDP projection results in a total of $2.320 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028.
Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget state
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Doing this again using new data from CBO, using 2016 as model:
Quote:Apparently the Q1 2018 update has GDP at 19.965 Trillion.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
From the President's Federal Budget, FY2019:
Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).
The projected change from 19.177 to 20.029 for 4 quarters (0.852) would average 0.213 per quarter.
But the economy is accelerating so fast that the Second Quarter already increased by 0.788 Trillion. Maintain that pace would result in 1.576 increase, or 20.753 GDP for 2018. That level is not even projected until Midway thru 2019.
This is 5% more than the projection. That 5% more will result in more Revenue, perhaps $84 - $167 Billion more. This reduces the Deficit to $706 - $789 Billion for 2018.
Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,085. An increase of $56 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.
Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,658 $5,912B $6,010B $098B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,145 $5,600B $5,786B $187B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,703 $5,325B $5,581B $256B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,309 $5,040B $5,362B $321B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $26,956 $4,769B $5,186B $416B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,661 $4,480B $5,000B $520B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,425 $4,183B $4,784B $601B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,250 $3,932B $4,599B $667B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,123 $3,703B $4,443B $740B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,059 $3,516B $4,257B $740B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,085 $3,434B $4,066B $632B
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177
This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $2.780 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.
And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.
Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,207 $6,019B $6,000B --$19B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,639 $5,704B $5,777B $074B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,142 $5,424B $5,573B $149B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,693 $5,139B $5,355B $215B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,285 $4,869B $5,180B $310B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,935 $4,549B $4,995B $446B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,644 $4,259B $4,780B $521B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,414 $3,984B $4,596B $61
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I finally found the CBO's scoring of the FY 2018 Budget, from July 2017. It is in https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52846
I'll add their figures in the Table from the President's Federal Budget, FY2018:
Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP || CBORev CBOOut CBODf CBO GDP
2027 $5,724B $5,708B $--26B $31,053 || $5,052B $5,772B $720B $27,999B
2026 $5,417B $5,527B $110B $29,557 || $4,842B $5,561B $719B $26,927B
2025 $5,130B $5,306B $176B $28,134 || $4,636B $5,332B $696B $25,896B
2024 $4,864B $5,073B $208B $26,779 || $4,439B $5,075B $636B $24,905B
2023 $4,615B $4,933B $319B $25,489 || $4,259B $4,939B $681B $23,951B
2022 $4,390B $4,832B $442B $24,261 || $4,085B $4,830B $745B $23,037B
2021 $4,161B $4,617B $456B $23,093 || $3,921B $4,613B $692B $22,165B
2020 $3,982B $4,470B $488B $21,981 || $3,780B $4,444B $664B $21,380B
2019 $3,814B $4,340B $526B $20,947 || $3,632B $4,321B $689B $20,671B
2018 $3,654B $4,093B $440B $20,014 || $3,479B $4,072B $593B $19,924B
2017 $3,460B $4,062B $603B $19,162 || $3,315B $4,008B $693B $19,120B
2016 $3,268B $3,853B $585B $18,407 || $3,268B $3,853B $585B $18,407B
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. The GDP for 2016 are revised down to the reality of Obamanomics.
Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).
Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:
2017 $3,316.2B $3,981.6B $665.4B
2016 $3,268.0B $3,852.6B $584.7B
2015 $3,249.9B $3,688.4B $438.5B
2014 $3,021.5B $3,506.1B $484.6B
2013 $2,775.1B $3,454.6B $679.5B
2012 $2,450.0B $3,536.9B 1087.0B
2011 $2,303.5B $3,603.1B 1299.6B
2010 $2,162.7B $3,457.1B 1294.4B
2009 $2,105.0B $3,517.7B 1412.7B
2008 $2,524.0B $2,982.5B $458.6B
2007 $2,568.0B $2,728.7B $160.7B
2006 $2,406.9B $2,655.1B $248.2B
2005 $2,153.6B $2,472.0B $318.3B
2004 $1,880.1B $2,292.8B $412.7B
2003 $1,782.3B $2,159.9B $377.6B
2002 $1,853.6B $2,010.9B $157.8B
2001 $1,991.1B $1,862.8B +128.2B
2000 $2,025.2B $1,789.0B +236.2B
1999 $1,827.xB $1,702.xB +126.xB
1998 $1,722.xB $1,653.xB +069.3B
1997 $1,579.xB $1,601.xB $021.9B
1996 $1,453.xB $1,561.xB $107.4B
1995 $1,351.xB $1,516.xB $164.xB
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME