Trump's Budget

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Sunday, August 5, 2018 7:55 AM

Here I'll add a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.

That revision is a huge manipulation of data, so I'll try to flesh it out a bit here.

Did we really need to redefine what the GDP was in 2000? In 1930?
Did we not know what the GDP was within a few years, so now we
should rewrite history?
The Deep State Obamabots at BEA have feverishly been endeavoring to deny reality.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

New report today from BEA. This is for the Quarter ending with June.
Updating some figures.



This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm
Guess I need to specify Table 1.1.5.


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

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FY2015Q1, Cal YRQ4 17,710.7 17,701.3 17,703.7 17,703.7 --07.0
FY2015Q2, Cal YRQ1 17,710.0 17,665.0 17,693.3 17,649.3 --60.7
FY2015Q3, Cal YRQ2 17,840.5 17,902.0 17,913.7 17,913.7 +73.2
FY2015Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,034.8 18,064.7 18,060.2 18,060.2 +25.4
FY2016Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,128.2 18,148.4 18,164.8 18,164.8 +36.6
FY2016Q2, Cal YRQ1 18,221.1 18,229.5 18,230.1 18,281.6 +60.5
FY2016Q3, Cal YRQ2 18,437.6 18,436.5 18,450.1 18,450.1 +12.5
FY2016Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,651.2 18,657.9 18,675.3 18,675.3 +24.1
FY2017Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,860.8 18,855.5 18,869.4 18,905.5 +44.7
FY2017Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,007.3 19,027.6 19,027.1 19,057.7 +50.4

FY2017Q3, Cal YRQ2 19,226.7 19,246.7 19,250.0 19.250.0 +23.3
FY2017Q4, Cal YRQ3 19,495.5 19,509.0 19,500.6 19,500.6 +05.1
FY2018Q1, Cal YRQ4 19,738.9 19,736.5 19,754.1 19,754.1 +15.2
FY2018Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,965.3 19,956.8 19,960.1 (19963.3)-2.0
FY2018Q3, Cal YRQ1(20324.8) gain 361.5

Now placing equivalent figures in parentheses, following 27 July 2018 revisions.

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Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX


FY2000 Q1 09926.1 Q2 10031.0 Q3 10278.3 Q4 10357.4 FY 10148.2
FY2001 Q1 10472.3 Q2 10508.1 Q3 10638.4 Q4 10639.5 FY 10564.6
FY2002 Q1 10701.3 Q2 10834.4 Q3 10924.8 Q4 11037.1 FY 10876.9
FY2003 Q1 11103.8 Q2 11230.1 Q3 11370.7 Q4 11625.1 FY 11332.4
FY2004 Q1 11816.7 Q2 11988.4 Q3 12181.4 Q4 12367.7 FY 12088.6
FY2005 Q1 12562.2 Q2 12813.7 Q3 12974.1 Q4 13205.4 FY 12888.9
FY2006 Q1 13381.6 Q2 13648.9 Q3 13799.8 Q4 13908.5 FY 13684.7
FY2007 Q1 14066.4 Q2 14233.2 Q3 14422.3 Q4 14569.7 FY 14322.9
FY2008 Q1 14685.3 Q2 14668.4 Q3 14813.0 Q4 14843.0 FY 14752.4
FY2009 Q1 14549.9 Q2 14383.9 Q3 14340.4 Q4 14384.1 FY 14414.6
FY2010 Q1 14566.5 Q2 14681.1 Q3 14888.6 Q4 15057.7 FY 14798.5
FY2011 Q1 15230.2 Q2 15238.4 Q3 15460.9 Q4 15587.1 FY 15379.1
FY2012 Q1 15785.3 Q2 15973.9 Q3 16121.9 Q4 16227.9 FY 16027.2
FY2013 Q1 16297.7 Q2 16475.4 Q3 16541.4 Q4 16749.3 FY 16515.9
FY2014 Q1 16999.9 Q2 17031.3 Q3 17320.9 Q4 17622.3 FY 17243.6
FY2015 Q1 17735.9 Q2 17874.7 Q3 18093.2 Q4 18227.7 FY 17982.9
FY2016 Q1 18287.2 Q2 18325.2 Q3 18538.0 Q4 18729.1 FY 18469.9
FY2017 Q1 18905.5 Q2 19057.7 Q3 19250.0 Q4 19500.6 FY 19178.4
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2 est3 19960.1 trending FY 20101 - 4.9%
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2(19963.3)Q3(20324.8) (advanced est)

Calendar Year 2017 GDP was 19,391 according to CBO. $19,390.6 from above.

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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, August 7, 2018 3:54 PM

Double posty.

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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, August 7, 2018 4:06 PM

This was posted 24 May, but now I'll add the new GDP data:

Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Today CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of LAST MONTH, or 7 weeks ago.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The CBO report is from April 2018, which was delayed from January due to the legislation passed in November 2017, February, March 2018. It only includes non-legislative factors up to mid-February. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.

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In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

In the middle section, the CBO projections:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.
The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $20 Trillion in that period - practically doubling from it's current level. Which would exaggerate by $7 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected, or about 150%

The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget.
The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period. Which trims off about $4 Trillion of their own exaggeration from only 7 weeks before - more than half of their bloated figures.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump,

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