It's not a significant correction until the DOW hits 15,000
POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Thursday, February 19, 2026 00:08
VIEWED: 2896
PAGE 1 of 3
That's approximately 20% lower than its recent peak of about 18,500. In 2011, the DOW was about 10,000. But below 15,000, it becomes a rout.
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Sometimes when I read your posts, I want to take hostages.
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Yanno, I'm sorry to say but it's common knowledge that the stock market is overvalued. It wasn't a question about IF it would go down, but simply "when". I told a co-worker about six months ago that the market had more-or-less-topped out, that you would see a lot of 400-point "chop", but that it would move when the Fed decided to raise interest rates.
Because the market clearly hasn't been responding to the economy. In the past, the market went up when the economy was doing well. That's because investors could look forward to increasing corporate revenues and increasing corporate earnings.
But lately, it's been the opposite: The market goes UP when an economic indicator goes DOWN. That's because everybody's got an eye on The Fed and it's zero-interest-rate policy which stays in place as long as economic indicators are anemic ... banks and corporations are investing in stocks by borrowing money at near-zero-rates, leading to a stock market "bubble". Once rates change, that comes to a screeching halt and the bubble bursts.
I'm not sure what the market is responding to this time ... it's all run by algos anyway ... but a news source (I don't remember which) accidentally released FOMC (Fed Open Market Committee) notes which indicated that they might raise rates next month.
Or maybe the stock market is FINALLY responding to collapsing world-economic activity, as indicating by collapsing commodities (you don't need copper, oil, and steel if you're not making/ building anything).
My point is that I wouldn't invest in stocks until they had corrected by 20% or more.
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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.
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Patience. There's 1000 more points down to go. Even then, you might decide to wait and see.
These are good times for day-traders, and people who do options. If you've got the time and the money and the nerve and the knowledge ... but mostly the time to watch the stock market like a hawk, minute-by-minute ... you can try to outplay the algos.
But if you're like most people and you have a job that requires your attention 40 hours a week ... or at least 20 hours a week! ... you won't be able to keep up. The best you can do is follow the long-term trends, when markets change by 20% or more. It may take several years for the market to go up again, but if you buy near the bottom with money you don't need right away, you can afford to wait.
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A lot depends on what the Fed does. If the Fed raises interest rates, the stock markets will go down, the dollar will go up, foreign currencies will go down, and gold will go down (relative to the dollar). If the Fed DOESN'T raise interest rates the stock markets will explode with joy and zoom up a few thousand points. I've never seen such a manipulated market before. There is a lot of pressure on the USA to raise rates, and curiously it's coming from foreign nations who would like their currencies to become cheaper (relative to the dollar) so that the USA can once again become the World Shopper, and they can start exporting stuff. Basically, so that we can play along with their currency war.
What that would do is hurt the USA economy, of course. Production and employment would decrease ... but heck, people would probably be pacified by cheap imports. It doesn't bode well for the future of the USA, but I"m not sure what pressures the Fed is responding to. So I'm in a wait-an-see mode.
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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
That's approximately 20% lower than its recent peak of about 18,500. In 2011, the DOW was about 10,000. But below 15,000, it becomes a rout.
LOL....
I haven't paid attention to the DOW since I cashed out and bought my house....
18,500!!!!!!
So I see that you're just throwing around Fiat Money all Willy Nilly now, huh?
Never got to 18.5 before most people I knew were ruined.
Then again, nobody had to pay $4.50 for a lb of normal ground beef back then either.....
I HAVEN'T PAID ATTENTION TO DOW SCORES IN OVER 5 YEARS.
I own my house and have only made less than $5k this year and lived off of it.
I fucking feel for the rest of you who tie your own happiness to that particular sinking anchor.
Good luck to you all! :) and or :(
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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A sight for sore eyes to the blind would be awful Majestic!
It would be the most beautiful thing that they ever did see.
It would cause such surprise, it would make all of their minds electric.
How could anyone tell them that somethings are not what they seem?
In such disbelief I thought I was asleep when I met you...
My heart liquefied and I sighed oh this must be a dream....
If I forget to set the alarm and sleep all through the dawn, don't remind me.....
I'd rather be dreaming of someone that living alone!!!!
If you're searching the lines for a point, well you've probably missed it!!!!
There was never anything there, in the first place!
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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The only thing I can think to follow this song up with is Glorfied G....
It doesn't mean what you might think it means, yet at the same time it means exactly what you think it means.....
The fact that it was one of Pearl Jam's least successful singles ever says it all....
It should never have been a single.
The "B" sides is where they brainwash your kids when you're not looking.
Don't hate Eddie Vedder for it now....
your kids today are so brainwashed by music they can't even think for themselves anymore.
Blame it on "Good Parenting"....
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Nobody noticed though, because everyone was wrapped up in jams directed towards some elderly woman behind a counter in some small town...
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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It wasn't until the last few years that most women around these parts might have started thinking about themselves as the elderly women behind the counter, and wondering why they never did break out of this place....
It's too late now...
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I just want to scream.... HEEEEELLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
By God it's been so long! Never dreamed You'd return!
But now here you are!
And Here I am!
Hearts and thoughts they fade, AWAY!
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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