Do you feel like the winds of change are blowing today too?
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Saturday, September 12, 2026 16:11
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Quote:Have you ever seen a zombie movie where the zombies talk? Me neither. But if they did talk, the zombies would probably be saying things like "Fuck Ukraine" or "Nobody Cares" or "He's shit" or "Your party is dead".
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:Quote:He was right when he praised this book.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
When's the last time Frum was right about anything?
Be specific.
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
Great. Tell him to stick to doing book reviews then, because he's shit at his day job.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Cooking the Federal Reserve’s Credibility
Did Wile E. Coyote just make a cameo appearance?
By Paul Krugman | Sep 04, 2025
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/cooking-the-federal-reserves-credib
ility
After markets closed Wednesday, financial news sites were full of talk about a “global bond rout.” The headlines were over the top: long-term interest rates were up, but not all that much. Call it “Apocalypse Not Yet”. And as I write this, rates have retreated again in the aftermath of a jobs report that strongly suggests a weakening labor market.
Still, market movements since Donald Trump announced that he was (probably illegally) firing Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors offer a preview of what to expect if the courts allow Trump to destroy the Fed’s independence. Spoiler: Not good.
Trump began his effort to replace Cook on Friday, Aug. 25, after the markets had closed. Below is a graph of the probability that Trump will succeed assigned by betting markets. After a sharp uptick on August 25th, the probability dropped down to around 30%, reflecting a belief that he will probably fail. However, it’s important to note that a 30% probability is not trivial.
Chart 1
If Trump does succeed in firing Cook, it would be a step on the road toward a fully Trumpified monetary policy.
What would happen if Trump gained control of the Fed?
He would be able to push through large cuts in the Federal funds rate, the short-term interest rate on overnight loans banks make to each other. And I mean large: he’s been talking 300 basis points. We have in the past seen rate cuts that big, but only in the face of serious recessions. Trump, however, insists that the U.S. economy is booming, and a cut that big in the absence of a recession — and with inflation both above target and set to rise due to tariffs, deportations and surging electricity prices — would be unprecedented.
Standard economics says that a big Fed funds rate cut in the absence of a severe economic slump would be inflationary. It would also damage the Fed’s credibility — investors’ belief that it will do what is necessary to fight future inflation. Eventually, however, inflation would force even a Trumpified Fed to raise rates.
What would you expect to see in bond markets if investors put a high probability on Trumpification of the Federal Reserve? You would expect short-term interest rates, which mainly reflect expectations about Fed policy over the next one to two years, to fall. But very long-term rates, which mainly reflect expectations about long run inflation, should rise. So what did we see between Aug. 25 and Sept. 2? Two-year rates fell by 7 basis points, while 30-year yields rose by the same amount.
Granted, these weren’t huge moves, reflecting the markets’ belief that Trump is unlikely to be able to fire Cook. Yet, this was a cameo appearance by Wile E. Coyote. The divergence between short-term rates and long-term rates was a reminder that Trump’s move to undermine the Federal Reserve’s independence is a real threat to the Fed’s credibility. And that matters.
At the Federal Reserve’s most recent Jackson Hole conference — its annual shindig in the Grand Tetons — Emi Nakamura, Venance Riblier and Jón Steinsson presented a paper on the effects of central bank credibility, as indicated by the ability of the Fed and its counterparts to "look through" post-Covid inflation, allowing the temporary inflation surge caused by supply chain disruptions to work itself out without needing to impose high unemployment.
Specifically, they looked at the ability of central banks to temporarily deviate from the Taylor rule, a basis for interest rate policy initially suggested by the economist John Taylor in a 1993 paper. Taylor argued that when responding to tradeoffs between inflation and unemployment, the Fed shouldn‘t fly by the seat of its pants; it should commit in advance to a specific rule linking interest rates to the inflation rate and the unemployment rate or some other measure of economic slack.
The Fed
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Trump Is Trying to Blackmail the Supreme Court
The legal arguments for Trump’s tariffs are weak, so he’s arguing their rejection would bring ruin.
Donald Trump is making a last-ditch effort to salvage his beloved, beleaguered tariff policy, heading to the Supreme Court in hopes that the Republican appointees will come to his rescue. The desperation is both palpable and warranted given the conspicuous weakness of the administration’s legal arguments, as underscored by a series of lower court rulings against him. That has in turn led the president and his aides to make increasingly histrionic public claims about what will happen if the Supreme Court does not cave and side with Trump.
Call it The Chicken Little Defense: If the courts do not sign off on the administration’s tariffs, it “would be a total disaster for the Country” and “would literally destroy the United States of America,” Trump said on Friday after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that the bulk of the president’s tariffs are illegal. He doubled down on those claims on Tuesday while tacking on the transparently ridiculous assertion that the U.S. is “taking in $17 trillion … because of tariffs.”
Trump claimed last month that a loss would yield “a GREAT DEPRESSION.” Solicitor General John Sauer and Brett Shumate, who heads the Justice Department’s Civil Division, told the court that “the United States was a dead country” before Trump took office and that “the economic consequences” of a loss “would be ruinous, instead of unprecedented success.”
If Trump is right — if his tariffs are necessary and wonderful and will stave off a Great Depression while also bringing an end to the Russia-Ukraine war — then he should go to Congress and get it to pass a law codifying them.
That would moot the whole legal challenge. The reason it will not happen, at least so far, is because the public is not buying the Trump administration’s claims, the tariffs are very unpopular and most GOP lawmakers have no interest in voting for them.
More at https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/09/04/trump-tariffs-suprem
e-court-appeal-column-00543196
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Survivors of Epstein's crimes held a press conference outside of the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday, where several of them shared their personal stories and called on Congress to release the files. A few moments after the press conference ended, Trump spoke with reporters in the Oval Office, where he said the Epstein files are "a Democrat hoax that won't go away."
Brad Todd, a GOP strategist, discussed the events. "One of the cardinal rules of politics is that you don't get in a fight with someone who is the victim of a sexual abuse crime," Todd said. "It's pretty high up on the list, and people have made that mistake. Believe me."
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-2673958367/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Fox News anchor Gretchen Carlson warned that the Republican Party is destroying their brand with their mismanagement and apparent cover-up of the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking case files review — an issue President Donald Trump has tried to dismiss in recent days by calling it "irrelevant" and a "hoax."
"I want to play some of what the president and and others around him, many of whom are in the administration, have said about this before for quite some time," said Anderson Cooper, playing an extensive list of clips of various Trump administration officials, like Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel, saying the public deserves the truth on Epstein and it would be coming soon. "Gretchen, it's crazy. They ran on this. They've been talking about this. They're the ones running the FBI now, and the Justice Department. It's remarkable to see what they said and what they're saying now."
"Exactly," said Carlson, who herself faced sexual harassment and won $20 million in a lawsuit against Fox News over it. "And I think that this is actually political suicide, not necessarily for Donald Trump, but as this story continues to grow without more information being given out. This is political suicide for the midterm elections."
https://www.rawstory.com/gretchen-carlson-2673959047/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:Quote:Have you ever seen a zombie movie where the zombies talk? Me neither. But if they did talk, the zombies would probably be saying things like "Fuck Ukraine" or "Nobody Cares" or "He's shit" or "Your party is dead".
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:Quote:He was right when he praised this book.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
When's the last time Frum was right about anything?
Be specific.
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
Great. Tell him to stick to doing book reviews then, because he's shit at his day job.
What? Is that supposed to be funny?
I also make 3 page long thoughtful posts, which is something you two goobers would be completely incapable of without stealing those ideas word for word, as I've caught you doing dozens of times already.
You just keep being wrong about everything right up until the day you die and driving yourself crazy as everything I tell you that will happen is going to happen, just as it's always been.
You're on the losing side of every argument, and you realize that now. It's why the two of you are constantly lashing out with personal attacks. You're two little rats trapped in the corner.
Awwwwww
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:Quote:Have you ever seen a zombie movie where the zombies talk? Me neither. But if they did talk, the zombies would probably be saying things like "Fuck Ukraine" or "Nobody Cares" or "He's shit" or "Your party is dead".
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:Quote:He was right when he praised this book.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
When's the last time Frum was right about anything?
Be specific.
Great. Tell him to stick to doing book reviews then, because he's shit at his day job.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
too funny...
T
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Quote:6ix, don't get proud of yourself. ChatGPT is more articulate than you, yet it isn't alive. 6ix, you are no better than a zombie like all the other Trumptards I know. Are you surprised when the walking dead don't prosper in America? I'm not because I have seen what happens to Trumptards, even the most articulate ones.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
What? Is that supposed to be funny?
I also make 3 page long thoughtful posts, which is something you two goobers would be completely incapable of without stealing those ideas word for word, as I've caught you doing dozens of times already.
You just keep being wrong about everything right up until the day you die and driving yourself crazy as everything I tell you that will happen is going to happen, just as it's always been.
You're on the losing side of every argument, and you realize that now. It's why the two of you are constantly lashing out with personal attacks. You're two little rats trapped in the corner.
Awwwwww
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
https://chatgpt.com/overview/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:Quote:6ix, don't get proud of yourself. ChatGPT is more articulate than you, yet it isn't alive. 6ix, you are no better than a zombie like all the other Trumptards I know. Are you surprised when the walking dead don't prosper in America? I'm not because I have seen what happens to Trumptards, even the most articulate ones.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
What? Is that supposed to be funny?
I also make 3 page long thoughtful posts, which is something you two goobers would be completely incapable of without stealing those ideas word for word, as I've caught you doing dozens of times already.
You just keep being wrong about everything right up until the day you die and driving yourself crazy as everything I tell you that will happen is going to happen, just as it's always been.
You're on the losing side of every argument, and you realize that now. It's why the two of you are constantly lashing out with personal attacks. You're two little rats trapped in the corner.
Awwwwww
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
Say hi to Kevin Drum for me.
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Quote:The only people who would mourn Trump's death
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Say hi to Kevin Drum for me.
By John Stoehr | Sept 4, 2025
https://www.alternet.org/alternet-exclusives/trump-press-conference-26
73959693/
As far as I can tell, Donald Trump is not dead, but he was an hour late to today’s White House presser, where he announced something. It doesn’t matter what it was, because the purpose of the announcement was proving he’s alive, though he’s clearly in a state of steep decline.
I think Garrett Graff’s piece this week says pretty much what needs saying about the newsworthiness of the subject, but I will take it a step farther: the reason Trump’s health has not made the leap from “news story” to “news event” is because the Washington press corps, especially the people who cut checks, doesn’t have the incentive.
The press corps needs attention. It’s the kind of need normal people cannot understand, nor should they, for their own sake. Trump, meanwhile, provides attention, especially when he says insane things.
So the incentive is not toward revealing the truth about Trump’s failing health but concealing it, even going so far as to accept uncritically the preposterous claim that he’s the fittest man to ever hold the office. If there’s nothing to see, even though it’s happening in front of television cameras, the gravy train can continue, and “everyone” is happy.
Here’s an example. At today’s presser, Trump was asked by one of the Fox chodes whether he would send National Guard troops to Chicago and other major cities. Trump hemmed and hawed, as he usually does, searching for an answer. He was clearly not trying to make an announcement, just saying whatever popped into this demented head.
Then the AP pushed this breaking news alert, in effect giving an improvised response the look and feel of serious presidential thought: “President Donald Trump said he will order federal law enforcement intervention in Chicago and Baltimore, despite local opposition.”
Joe Biden did not do that. He did not bring mindless attention to himself. He did not invite reporters into the White House every day. He did not say crazy things in front of cameras, though he could mangle the English language like few others could. He did not speak with absolute contempt for facts and the truth. And he did not provide attention-seekers with what they needed more than anything else.
So like junkies, they went looking for what Biden would not give them. They accepted as true Trump’s allegation that the Afghan withdrawal was the worst disaster in history, even though Trump negotiated the disastrous terms of it. Reporters also accepted as true allegations made by a federal prosecutor who said Joe Biden was old and tired.
These are two examples of dozens of stories that generated enormous public interest, that is, enormous attention for the attention-seekers. Together, along with Biden’s terrible debate performance, these stories paved the way for Jake Tapper’s post-election book alleging a secret and massive cover-up of Biden’s health, especially his mental decline, and even that Biden is somehow responsible for Donald Trump’s victory.
If reporters like Jake Tapper (and Alex Thompson) really believed what they said about a massive cover up of Biden's infirmities, you would expect them to never, ever, make that mistake again. You would think professional integrity and service to the public would compel them to chase down every tip as to the well-being of the current president.
But here we are in the middle of the near-total absence of any serious and sustained reporting on Trump's visible infirmities – as Graff said, the bruised hands, the swollen ankles, the changes to his personal habits (since when does he spend a holiday weekend at the White House?) and, most of all, the utterly confabulated things he says daily.
This near-total absence is reason alone to believe that Tapper, Thompson and others did not themselves believe what they said about Biden, only that saying i
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