What is Putin's end game?
POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Wednesday, July 16, 2025 02:35
VIEWED: 15018
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Quote:You crave lies like an alcoholic craves booze.
6IXSTRINGJACK:
Nobody cares.
SECOND: Putin cares too much.
SIX: He's got a reason to.
You don't.
SECOND: Putin is the richest man in the world...
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:You crave lies like an alcoholic craves booze.
6IXSTRINGJACK:
Nobody cares.
SECOND: Putin cares too much.
SIX: He's got a reason to.
You don't.
SECOND: Putin is the richest man in the world...
Yup. It's like the government took Trump away from him and now his only source of Copeium is Putin.
Turn that frown upside down, little buddy. Trump is coming back.
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Me: "Remember Covid?"
Useless Idiots: "What's Covid, durr? Russia, Ukraine, Putin, NATO *drool*. DURRRR!!!!"
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Quote:Trump is 4 times more likely to be assassinated than to be reelected. Four Presidents have been assassinated, but only one President, Grover Cleveland, served non-consecutive terms. There could be a John Wilkes Booth for Trump. Maybe there are two? The second one is for Putin.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Turn that frown upside down, little buddy. Trump is coming back.
In other speculative news, Russia already has phases 2 and 3 planned after Ukraine
Russia will not stop at Transnistria if Moscow is successful and the Western world loses interest in Ukraine as the war drags on. The potential “third phase” would be a drive to connect the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast, which borders NATO members Poland and Lithuania. This action would entail the Russian military seizing the Suwalki Gap, which is the border between Poland and Lithuania – with Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus on the two endpoints. The Suwalki Gap is a mere 65 miles end-to-end. Those 65 miles between the exclave and Belarus (which Moscow is using as a staging area for its invasion of Ukraine) is NATO territory.
Putin might risk a wider European war – specifically an attack on two NATO member-states, plus drawing in non-member Moldova. As part of the defense of the Suwalki Gap, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has advocated for the U.S. to establish a permanent military base in her country. Estonia shares a land border with Russia and has a minority Russian-speaking population that may need “liberation” if Russia is not expelled from Ukraine.
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/opinion/2022/04/28/russia-already-
aiming-nato-nations-borders-after-ukraine/9551808002/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Use the Weapon the Russians Can’t Match
It’s nowhere near as expensive as it sounds, and much more humane: offer every Russian soldier who defects $100,000 and the right to settle in any EU/North American country of their choice. It might not work, especially if Russia uses deadly force against soldiers who lay down their arms or violent reprisals against their families back home. But if a large enough portion of their troops accept the offer, the Russian war effort would be crippled.
Of course, Putin will claim that this is an inducement to the worst sort of betrayal, selling out your country’s fundamental values and interests in exchange for a bribe. If this were really what’s at stake in the war, he’d be right. But if not just a few, but thousands, including whole units, opt for the deal, it sends the message that Putin’s war aims are hollow. Of course, defectors can send that message directly as well, for instance through social media, and it would take a much higher level of repression than today’s to block it.
Too expensive? Way cheaper than war in every way. As an upper bound, consider that if 100,000 troops defect—which would likely end the war on the spot—the cost would come to $10 billion, far less than what will be spent on arms and lost through death and destruction.
Note that this is a weapon only the West can wield, since Russia can neither afford such largesse, nor would settlement in Russia be as attractive.
https://angrybearblog.com/2022/04/in-ukraine-use-the-weapon-the-russia
ns-cant-match
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:Trump is 4 times more likely to be assassinated than to be reelected. Four Presidents have been assassinated, but only one President, Grover Cleveland, served non-consecutive terms. There could be a John Wilkes Booth for Trump. Maybe there are two? The second one is for Putin.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Turn that frown upside down, little buddy. Trump is coming back.
That's not how statistics work, I'm afraid.
In any event... archived.
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Me: "Remember Covid?"
Useless Idiots: "What's Covid, durr? Russia, Ukraine, Putin, NATO *drool*. DURRRR!!!!"
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Quote:I'm afraid you, Signym and Putin are full of it. Putin made his statistical calculation of when there would be a victory in Ukraine. His calculation was too optimistic, but that doesn't mean victory will never happen. Nor does it mean that nobody will kill Putin for his mathematical errors.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
That's not how statistics work, I'm afraid.
In any event... archived.
NASA said the same as 6ix says, but about Space Shuttle. NASA management said the probability of a catastrophic loss was a million to one. Richard Feynman did a back of the envelope calculation after 25 space shuttle flights and one crash to arrive at one chance in a hundred. Eventually there would be 135 Space Shuttle flights, 2 crashes, 14 dead. Feynman’s approximation was pretty close, but if he wanted the accuracy that 6ix wants, there would have to be thousands of Space Shuttle crashes and thousands of USA Presidents being assassinated in order to get the best estimate of the likelihood of Trump being murdered.
NASA’s Understanding of Risk in Apollo and Shuttle
Harry W. Jones NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, 94035-0001
Mathematical risk analysis was used in Apollo**, but it gave unacceptably pessimistic results and was discontinued. Shuttle was designed without using risk analysis, under the assumption that good engineering would make it very safe. This approach led to an unnecessarily risky design, which led to the Shuttle tragedies. Although the Challenger disaster was due to a mistaken launch decision, it might have been avoided by a safer design. The ultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies was the Apollo era decision to abandon risk analysis.
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20190002249/downloads/20190002249.
6ix, if you do a risk analysis of Trump blowing up on TV like the Space Shuttle Challenger, it is more likely than him being reelected. That makes Trump as heroic as an astronaut, assuming Trump runs again for President. He'd be safer going to the Moon or Mars.
** Apollo 1 was expected to fly to Earth orbit in 1967 with astronauts Gus Grissom, Roger Chaffee and Ed White on board. During a test on the launch pad, however, a fire erupted and rapidly asphyxiated all three astronauts.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:I'm afraid you, Signym and Putin are full of it.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
That's not how statistics work, I'm afraid.
In any event... archived.
If we're talking statistics for kindergartners where there is only one variable, sure, you're on to something.
That's not how the real world works.
If it were, any dumb asshole like you could be a Statistician.
--------------------------------------------------
Me: "Remember Covid?"
Useless Idiots: "What's Covid, durr? Russia, Ukraine, Putin, NATO *drool*. DURRRR!!!!"
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Before Mr. Putin’s troops rolled into Ukraine, says Joanna Bryson, an ethics professor at the Hertie School in Berlin, it was easy to argue either for or against the idea that Mr. Putin may be a reliable partner for the West.
“Everyone could turn their heads both ways,” says Dr. Bryson. “Large numbers of people staked their entire identities and professional histories in saying things like ‘The Cold War was over, and we have these institutions that will secure us.’ Then suddenly Russia proved that one narrative was false and one narrative was true” – shaking Germany’s long-held policy foundation toward Russia to its core.
Prior to the invasion, government language and media coverage describing Mr. Putin’s troop buildup around Ukraine left it all open to different interpretations. The language allowed for nuance. Instead of “soldiers” it was “pro-Russian separatists,” for example.
“Now we’re falling back to old language that’s much more connected to Cold War times and classical war coverage,” says Dr. Liefke. “It’s Putin’s war. And it’s very clear that the Russian side are the bad guys and Ukrainians are the good guys. That is a big change. It’s an indication to society that it’s actually no longer acceptable to be somehow pro-Putin.”
This morality has brought trouble to public figures such as Gerhard Schröder, the former German chancellor who’s a close friend of Mr. Putin’s. After leaving public office, Mr. Schröder joined the board of Russian energy giant Gazprom with an accompanying hefty salary. Now Mr. Schröder’s political party is being pressured to oust him.
Mr. Schröder’s “relationship to Putin was always somehow disputable, but in the OK zone. It no longer is,” says Dr. Liefke.
Germany’s welcome to thousands of Ukrainian refugees also has a strong moral foundation, as society has opened its arms with donations of food and shelter, while the government proclaims there is no upper limit on the numbers of Ukrainians who can pass into the country. Analysts say the Ukraine war hits the right combination of factors: namely, flight from war or persecution by a population that’s geographically close and similar in culture and religion. (More than 70% of Ukrainians are Christian, as are the majority of Germans.)
Hence what ensued was a mass outpouring of empathy.
“It’s very clear and prominent in news media and political speeches that Ukrainians really are fleeing a war,” says Christian Cyzmara, a sociologist at Goethe University Frankfurt. “It also feels very drastic and close, which boosts acceptance among Germans and Europe in general.”
Germany is moving away from Russian energy, which will ultimately “help rid the world of the dictatorship of a degrading country.”
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2022/0428/Moral-nation-Why-Germ
any-changed-course-so-radically-on-Russia
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:I'm afraid you, Signym and Putin are full of it.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
That's not how statistics work, I'm afraid.
In any event... archived.
If we're talking statistics for kindergartners where there is only one variable, sure, you're on to something.
That's not how the real world works.
If it were, any dumb asshole like you could be a Statistician.
--------------------------------------------------
Me: "Remember Covid?"
Useless Idiots: "What's Covid, durr? Russia, Ukraine, Putin, NATO *drool*. DURRRR!!!!"
Awwwwwwww...
You're done with that dead-end line of thought, huh?
*pout*
--------------------------------------------------
Me: "Remember Covid?"
Useless Idiots: "What's Covid, durr? Russia, Ukraine, Putin, NATO *drool*. DURRRR!!!!"
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