Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
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Weakness is Lethal: Why Putin Invaded Ukraine and How the War Must End
Nataliya Bugayova, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan
October 1, 2023
Putin didn’t invade Ukraine in 2022 because he feared NATO. He invaded because he believed that NATO was weak, that his efforts to regain control of Ukraine by other means had failed, and that installing a pro-Russian government in Kyiv would be easy. His aim was not to defend Russia against some non-existent threat but rather to expand Russia’s power, eradicate Ukraine’s statehood, and destroy NATO, goals he still pursues.
Putin had convinced himself by the end of 2021 that Russia had the opportunity to safely launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine to accomplish two distinct goals: establish Russian control over Ukraine without facing significant Western resistance and break the unity of NATO.
Russia deployed the principal units designed to protect Russia from NATO to Ukraine, which posed no military threat to Russia, in 2021 and 2022.[3] In 2023 - at the height of Russia’s anti-NATO rhetoric - Russia continued to withdraw forces and military equipment from its actual land borders with NATO to support the war in Ukraine.[4] Putin‘s fear of NATO manifested in his preoccupation with the West’s supposed hybrid warfare efforts to stage “color revolutions,” which Russia claimed the West had done in various former Soviet states including Ukraine.[5]
Putin has always been more concerned about the loss of control over Russia’s perceived sphere of influence than about a NATO threat to Russia. Putin’s actual issue with NATO and the West has been that they offered an alternative path to countries that Putin thought fell in Russia’s sphere of influence or even control. The “color revolutions” that so alarmed Putin were, after all, the manifestations of those countries daring to choose the West, or, rather the way of life, governance and values the West represented, over Moscow. NATO and the West threatened Russia by simply existing.
There is no path to real peace other than helping Ukraine inflict an unequivocal military defeat on Russia and then helping to rebuild Ukraine into a military and society so strong and resilient that no future Russian leader sees an opportunity like the ones Putin misperceived in 2022. This path is achievable if the West commits to supporting Ukraine in the prolonged effort likely needed to walk down it. If the West instead is lured by the illusion of some compromise, it may end the pain for now, but only at the cost of much greater pain later. Putin has shown that he views compromise as surrender, and surrender emboldens him to reattack. This war can only end finally not when Putin feels that he can save face, but rather when he knows that he cannot win.
More at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/weakness-lethal-why-puti
n-invaded-ukraine-and-how-war-must-end
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Foreign ministers from the European Union have convened in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, for talks on the country's accession to the bloc.
It is the first time that all of the bloc's top diplomats have met beyond the EU's own borders.
Ukraine was officially granted EU candidate status last year in an unusually rapid decision by the bloc, which is relatively cautious about the speed of expansion.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-october-2/live-66978039
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Whenever a Russian official calls something a “proven fact,” it should set off alarms. And sure enough, here too the facts were invented out of thin air. Repeated exhaustive investigations — including by not only the Nuremberg trials but also the British, Canadian and even Soviet authorities — led to the conclusion that no war crimes or atrocities had been committed by this particular unit.
But this is just the latest twist in a long-running campaign by the Russian Embassy in Ottawa, dating back even to Soviet times, when the USSR would leverage accusations of Nazi collaboration for political purposes as part of its “active measures” operations.
And given Moscow’s own history of aggression and atrocities during World War II and its aftermath, there’s a special cynicism underlying the Russian accusations. Russia feels comfortable shouting about “Nazis,” real or imaginary, in Ukraine or elsewhere, because unlike Nazi Germany, leaders and soldiers of the Soviet Union were never put on trial for their war crimes. Russia clings to the Nuremberg trials as a benchmark of legitimacy because as a victorious power, it was never subjected to the same reckoning. And yet, both before and after their collaborative effort to carve up eastern Europe between them, the Soviets and the Nazis had so much in common that it’s now illegal to point these similarities out in Russia.
More at https://www.politico.eu/article/fight-against-ussr-nazi-waffen-ss-troo
per-yaroslav-hunka-world-war-ii-soviet-union-germany/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
The British are coming...
SECOND: Instead of Ukrainians going to Britain for training, the Brits go to Ukraine to train.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/30/british-troops-could-dep
loy-to-ukraine-to-train-soldiers-says-grant-shapps
And you keep insisting there is no USA military in Ukraine?
Your mind... it's a clusterfuck, SECOND. You literally can't keep track of what you posted from one day to the next.
Reality check. Any NATO troops that are in Ukraine are there to protect their diplomats; their embassies. They are not fighting on the front.
And I for one am ambivalent about the Brits going in to train the Ukrainian military.
T
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'War of forecasts'. How close is Ukraine to victory: What the West and experts say
Mon, October 02, 2023 - 19:55
The Russia-Ukraine war will last at least until 2025, according to Oleksandr Musiienko, the head of the Center of Military Law Researches. This is partly because Russia hopes for a change in U.S. policy after the presidential elections. Therefore, Ukraine has no choice but to develop a counteroffensive strategy for 2024 and defense against Russian attacks.
In September, while speaking at the YES-2023 conference, German General Christian Freuding, the head of the Bundeswehr's Situation Center, assured of long-term support for Kyiv.
"The German parliament has presented a plan for military support to our Ukrainian friends until 2032. We are ready to provide long-term support. And we are ready to make time our ally, not Putin's," he said.
Oleksandr Kovalenko believes the "9-year scenario" is absolutely unrealistic.
"This is not quite the right understanding of what the senior officer of the Bundeswehr was talking about. It was about supporting Ukraine both during and after the war. Because after the war, we will also need assistance in restoring the combat readiness of our military structures, and our defense forces. This is a long-term project, designed not only for the period of hostilities but also for the future," he told RBC-Ukraine.
More at https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/war-of-forecasts-how-close-is-ukraine-
to-1696265720.html
Unless Ukraine permanently closes the Kerch Strait Bridges, the war never ends. There have been several attacks on the road and railroad bridges, but Russia can repair them because this is the War of Dumb vs. Dumber. Ukraine needs some smart structural engineers who understand where the bridge is weak and then some even smarter smart bombs to hit the weak spots until the bridge falls. Then Ukraine needs to sink the ferry boats running between Russia and Crimea. Can Ukrainians figure out how to do those things? I don't know. Maybe God or NATO will do it for Ukraine.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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How Dumb Are Ukrainians? Dumber Than Russians? The US had the same problem with Afghan officials, including Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani, stealing almost as fast as the military aid arrived. Last time I checked, that corruption ruined Afghanistan.
Leaked U.S. strategy on Ukraine sees corruption as the real threat
Politico reports:
Biden administration officials are far more worried about corruption in Ukraine than they publicly admit, a confidential U.S. strategy document obtained by POLITICO suggests.
The “sensitive but unclassified” version of the long-term U.S. plan lays out numerous steps Washington is taking to help Kyiv root out malfeasance and otherwise reform an array of Ukrainian sectors. It stresses that corruption could cause Western allies to abandon Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion, and that Kyiv cannot put off the anti-graft effort.
“Perceptions of high-level corruption” the confidential version of the document warns, could “undermine the Ukrainian public’s and foreign leaders’ confidence in the war-time government.”
That’s starker than the analysis available in the little-noticed public version of the 22-page document, which the State Department appears to have posted on its website with no fanfare about a month ago.
The confidential version of the “Integrated Country Strategy” is about three times as long and contains many more details about U.S. objectives in Ukraine, from privatizing its banks to helping more schools teach English to encouraging its military to adopt NATO protocols. Many goals are designed to reduce the corruption that bedevils the country.
The quiet release of the strategy, and the fact that the toughest language was left in the confidential version, underscores the messaging challenge facing the Biden team. [Continue reading at https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/02/biden-admin-ukraine-strategy-
corruption-00119237 ]
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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'They're just meat': Russia deploys punishment battalions in echo of Stalin
October 3, 2023, 3:24 AM CDT
Fighters from a Storm-Z squad explain why they will no longer fight in Ukraine
By Polina Nikolskaya and Maria Tsvetkova
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/theyre-just-meat-russia-deploys-p
unishment-battalions-echo-stalin-2023-10-03/
LONDON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Drunk recruits. Insubordinate soldiers. Convicts.
They're among hundreds of military and civilian offenders who've been pressed into Russian penal units known as "Storm-Z" squads and sent to the frontlines in Ukraine this year, according to 13 people with knowledge of the matter, including five fighters in the units.
Few live to tell their tale, the people said.
"Storm fighters, they're just meat," said one regular soldier from army unit no. 40318 who was deployed near the fiercely contested city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine in May and June.
He said he'd given medical treatment to a group of six or seven wounded Storm-Z fighters on the battlefield, disobeying an order from a commander - whose name he didn't know - to leave the men. He said he didn't know why the commander gave the order, but claimed that it typified how Storm-Z fighters were considered of lesser value than ordinary troops by officers.
The soldier, who requested anonymity because he feared prosecution in Russia for publicly discussing the war, said he had sympathy for the men's plight: "If the commandants catch anyone with the smell of alcohol on their breath, then they immediately send them to the Storm squads."
When contacted by Reuters, an officer at unit no. 40318 declined to comment on Storm-Z and ended the call. The Kremlin referred Reuters questions to the Russian defence ministry, which didn't respond to a request for comment.
Russian state-controlled media has reported that Storm-Z squads exist, that they took part in intense battles and some of their members received medals for bravery, but it has not disclosed how they are formed, or the losses they take.
Reuters is the first news organisation to compile a comprehensive account of how the squads are put together and deployed, by speaking to multiple sources with direct knowledge of what is happening.
Like the soldier from unit no. 40318, the 13 people interviewed - who also include four relatives of Storm-Z members as well as three soldiers in regular units who interacted with the squads - all requested anonymity, citing fear of reprisals. Reuters verified the identities of all the fighters involved using criminal records, social media accounts, or by speaking to their fellow serviceman and their families.
The penal squads, each about 100-150 strong and embedded within regular army units, have typically been sent to the most exposed parts of the front and often sustain heavy losses, according to Reuters interviews with the people, who identified at least five Storm-Z teams fighting to repel a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east and south.
Three of the five Storm-Z fighters interviewed by Reuters, and the relatives of three other Storm-Z fighters, described nightmarish engagements that saw much of their squads wiped out.
One fighter, with a conviction for theft who was recruited from prison, said all but 15 of the 120 men in his unit embedded with the 237th regiment were killed or wounded in fighting near Bakhmut in June.
The deployment of such squads marks a departure for Russia in Ukraine: while the Wagner mercenary group - now being disbanded after a June mutiny - sent convicts to fight on the frontline, the Storm-Z units come under the direct command of the defence ministry.
The squads also combine convicts who volunteer to fight in exchange for the promise of a pardon with regular soldiers being punished for disciplinary breaches, the people interviewed said.
The Storm-Z squads are useful to the Russian defence ministry because they can be deployed as expendable infantry, according to Conflict Inte
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Following Military Summary Channel, it seems that there are very few Ukrainian attacks along the entire front, except just south of Bakhmut,where Ukrainians have concentrated drone and artillery strikes.
OTOH rumors abound of a pending Ukrainian offensive across the Dneiper river in the Kherson area, and possibly at Zaparozhiy Nuclear Power Plant. Again, rumors say that Ukraine has stopped attacking Russian fortified positions in order to build forces for this upcoming offensive.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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A Russian elite unit's motivation to fight dropped to "critical levels" amid high casualties in Ukraine, analysts said.
The respected Institute for the Study of War said that morale was ebbing in the VDV paratrooper force deployed near the city of Bakhmut.
It cited the analysis to a post by a recently-departed commander, Alexander Khodakovsky, who served on the front lines. He is now a member of Russia's active miliblogger community, a source of unofficial but often accurate information about Russia's war effort.
In the post, Khodakovsky recalled a conversation with another senior officer, the VDV's Andrei Kondrashkin, who was in Bakhmut.
Kondrashkin said, per the post, that "his forces suffered personnel losses and that their motivation to fight dropped to a critical level."
Russia's VDV units have been deployed in the region to make counterattacks to slow Ukraine's counteroffensive, suffering high casualties.
"Kondrashkin reportedly stated that the Russian military command demanded that his forces undertake 'decisive actions,' while he knew that his personnel were suffering a critical lack of motivation," the ISW said.
Khodakovsky said that he told Kondrashkin that had to "make a choice to either 'waste' his troops in combat or protest the Russian military command's order at the expense of his career."
But Khodakovsky claimed that Kondrashkin was killed in action before he could decide.
A senior commander, General Mikhail Teplinsky, then stepped in and "saved" the VDV unit by allowing them to take a break from front line combat, risking the wrath of superiors by doing so.
Russia's VDV units suffered high casualties in the initial weeks of the conflict, when they spearheaded Russia's ultimately unsuccessful attempt to quickly conquer Ukraine and seize its capital.
In more recent weeks, they've been deployed to try and stem Ukraine's counteroffensive. Traditionally, the units are used for specialised operations, not infantry combat.
Reports have emerged in recent weeks of heavy casualties in Russian units launching counterattacks to slow Ukraine's counteroffensive in the east and south of the country.
https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/an-elite-russian-uni
ts-morale-is-at-critical-levels-after-being-sent-to-stop-ukraines-counteroffensive-analysts-say/articleshow/104134300.cms
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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October 4, 2023, 5:15 AM
A court in Moscow on Wednesday handed a former state TV journalist an 8 1/2-year prison term in absentia for protesting Russia's war in Ukraine, the latest in a months-long crackdown against dissent that has intensified since Moscow's invasion 20 months ago.
Marina Ovsyannikova was charged with spreading false information about the Russian army, a criminal offense under a law adopted shortly after the Kremlin sent troops to Ukraine.
She held a picket in the Russian capital in July 2022 and held a poster that said “(Russian President Vladimir) Putin is a killer. His soldiers are fascists. 352 children have been killed (in Ukraine). How many more children need to die for you to stop?”
Ovsyannikova, who until March 2022 worked for Russia's state-run Channel One, was detained and placed under house arrest, but managed to escape to France with her daughter. Russian authorities put her on a wanted list and prosecuted and tried her in absentia.
In March 2022, Ovsyannikova made international headlines after appearing behind the anchor of an evening Channel One news broadcast with a poster that said “Stop the war, don’t believe the propaganda, they are lying to you here.” She quit her job at the channel, was charged with disparaging the Russian military, and fined 30,000 rubles ($270 at the time).
Thousands of Russians have been fined and hundreds have faced criminal charges over publicly speaking out or protesting against the war in the last 20 months. The Kremlin has used legislation outlawing criticism of what it insists on calling a “special military operation” to target opposition figures, human rights activists, and independent media.
Top Kremlin critics have been handed lengthy prison terms, rights groups have been forced to shut down, independent news sites were blocked and independent journalists have left the country, fearing prosecution.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/former-russian-state-tv
-journalist-gets-8-12-103713651
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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