Real World Event Discussions

Capital Offense

POSTED BY: AnthonyT
UPDATED: Sunday, November 16, 2025 04:49
VIEWED: 11738
PAGE 15 of 22

FINN MAC CUMHAL

Sunday, September 14, 2008 9:48 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
SignyM

I was going to mention that but you got there ahead of me - it doesn't matter what they thought Iraq might possibly have had in 1999 - by 2003 the biologicals and most of the chemical weapons would have been less useful than rocks. Without production to constantly replenish them, the stocks would have degraded to nothing, along with Iraq's CBW capability. And as Finn's own quotes show, Iraq had no production capability.

And as we all know, and knew at the time, Iraq was not engaged in developing nuclear weapons.

So much for those WMDs.

So you’re a chemist too, huh? Well so much for that. Neither of you know what you’re talking about. Chemical weapons are stored as precursors. And biological agents can, in fact, be stored long term, if stored correctly. Chemical agents, of course, are not biological – they don’t die. VX remains deadly indefinitely, and its precursors are stable too. Iraq had both, agents and precursors.

Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

SIGNYM

Sunday, September 14, 2008 3:22 PM

Quote:
So you’re a chemist too, huh? Well so much for that. Neither of you know what you’re talking about.

Actually, since I worked on CWA-detection and readiness response project for the DOD I do, in fact, know what I'm talking about.

Quote:
And biological agents can, in fact, be stored long term, if stored correctly.

Let's start with bioweapons. Saddam HAD anthrax. Liquid anthrax. There is NO WAY to store that "properly". When Colin Powell showed the UN a vial full of powder... that was a big fat lie.

Quote:
Chemical agents, of course, are not biological – they don’t die. VX remains deadly indefinitely, and its precursors are stable too. Iraq had both, agents and precursors.

Now, onto chemical weapons... The "shelf life" of a chemical weapon (except mustard gas) or its precursors is highly dependent on its purity and storage conditions. As a chemist, I know that chemicals which are stored for a long time can change.... they indeed "die" from oxidation or catalyzed decomposition. Saddam's chemicals were low-grade: not highly purified, and therefore subject to catalyzed decomposition. Here's a detailed quote on th topic

Quote:
In some cases, it is quite clear that any stocks that were retained no longer exist in usable form. Most chemical and biological agents are subject to processes of deterioration. A working paper by UNSCOM from January 1998 noted that: "Taking into consideration the conditions and the quality of CW-agents and munitions produced by Iraq at that time, there is no possibility of weapons remaining from the mid-1980's" (quoted in Arms Control Today, June 2000). As discussed below, mustard constitutes an exception to this general pattern. This point was acknowledged by UNMOVIC in its 6 March 2003 working document, specifically about remaining warheads which had been filled with chemical agents, but seemingly applicable to any storage of chemical weapons:

"While 155-mm projectiles filled with Mustard could be stored for decades, it is less likely that any remaining warheads filled with nerve agents would still be viable combat munitions."

UNMOVIC, "Unresolved Disarmament Issues" (6 March 2003), p.55.

If the allegations that Iraq possessed a stockpile of illicit weapons were to be true, then the UK and US would need to present credible evidence that Iraq had managed to stabilise its chemical and biological agents to a greater extent than it is previously thought to have done.

Which the USA and the UK never contended. This site specifically addresses VX stability BTW. Iraq tried four different production techniques, but didn't get to a successful one until very late, and therefore did not produce much viable VX.

Also, if you look at this site you will see reference to the "accounting problem".

Quote:
Up to 1998, a substantial part of the work of the weapons inspectors in Iraq was to track down chemical and biological agents that Iraq had produced before their entry in 1991, and to check the documentation that showed how much of each agent Iraq had manufactured. However, the amount Iraq is thought to have produced in the 1980s was found to be greater than the quantity that Iraq or the inspectors verified as having destroyed. The discrepancy between the two levels is the amount that remains - in the inspectors' language - "unaccounted for".

The levels of agents that are unaccounted for in this way is large, as many of the US and UK claims above rightly identify. But the fact that these quantities are unaccounted for does not mean that they still exist. Iraq has never provided a full declaration of its use of chemical weapons against Iran in the 1980-88 war, and it claims to have destroyed large quantities of its own stocks of these weapons in 1991 without keeping sufficient proof of its actions.

When inspectors went to the claimed destruction sites, there was evidence that large amounts of WMD had been destroyed, but no way to determined exactly how much.

And finally...

Quote:
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FINN MAC CUMHAL

Sunday, September 14, 2008 4:12 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Quote:
So you’re a chemist too, huh? Well so much for that. Neither of you know what you’re talking about.
Actually, since I worked on CWA-detection and readiness response project for the DOD I do, in fact, know what I'm talking about.

Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Let's start with bioweapons. Saddam HAD anthrax. Liquid anthrax. There is NO WAY to store that "properly". When Colin Powell showed the UN a vial full of powder... that was a big fat lie.

According to you. Can you show me conclusive evidence that Saddam Hussein did not weaponize anthrax, based on what we knew prior to 2003? Probably not.

Secondly, while VX may degrade in long-term storage, it remains lethal for a very long time. It does not degrade into corn syrup, and even very tinny amounts of VX are deadly.

Then there’s mustard – an agent, which even you don’t deny, remains dangerous past its shelf life, and many munitions containing mustard have in fact been found in Iraq. So we know for a fact the Iraq did not destroy all of its Chemical weapons.

SIGNYM

Sunday, September 14, 2008 4:40 PM

Quote:
According to you. Can you show me conclusive evidence that Saddam Hussein did not weaponize anthrax, based on what we knew prior to 2003? Probably not.

Actually, yes, I can. Because UNMOVIC looked at that very issue. It was well-known that Iraq produced liquid anthrax, but had problem drying it. As UNMOVIC reported

Quote:
It is most likely that, as it had declared, Iraq was unsuccessful in 1989/90 in acquiring a special dust-free spray dryer to safely dry large quantities of anthrax. [...] In any event, it seems likely that no bulk drying of agent took place in either 1989 or 1990.Apparently, in 1989, large-scale BW agent production was in its initial phase and Iraq was expecting to obtain from an overseas company a special dryer for its future requirements. Therefore, there seemed to be little reason, at that time, to modify existing dryers to make them safe for BW agent drying. An Al Hakam annual report for 1990 makes no reference to large scale drying of BW agents, implying that no drying occurred in that year either. The annual report, which UNMOVIC considers reliable, indicates that research into the drying of anthrax continued in 1990, but even this ceased for that year when the foreign company failed to supply the special dryer.

Same site as before.

Rue is has an advanced degree in biology. I defer to her knowledge about the topic, but my understanding of anthrax production (which is what Iraq was focusing on) is that it is difficult to obtain dry spores, and even harder to mill them down to uniform micron-sized particles and treat them with de-static agent -otherwise they re-clump and fall out of the air. In fact, that was why everyone was in such a sweat over the anthrax letters- They had all the hallmarks of sophisticated production techniques: uniform particle size, and effective surface-treatment previously unknown to any nation except Russia.

Quote:
Secondly, while VX may degrade in long-term storage, it remains lethal for a very long time. It does not degrade into corn syrup, and even very tinny amounts of VX are deadly. Then there’s mustard – an agent, which even you don’t deny, remains dangerous past its shelf life, and many munitions containing mustard have in fact been found in Iraq. So we know for a fact the Iraq did not destroy all of its Chemical weapons.

But were those "massive stockpiles"?

No.

"Deployed"?

No

Did they represent any threat to us, other than someone accidentally stumbling on to them?

No.

A few drums here and there, buried in caves and forgotten in the Gulf War rout. A few warheads, here and there, with traces of degraded CW. Sites which showed evidence of WMD and BW destruction. Nothing akin to the picture that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice et al were painting of robust, massive (and yet somehow completely covert!!

) WMD production, storage, and deployment. Like I said: If it was so massive and so obvious that the Admin could point to it as a certainty... Hell, they even knew (they said) where the weapons were deployed... why couldn't they direct UNMOVIC to find them????

I'm sorry Finn, but the plain fact of the matter is that the horror story that the Administration painted was just that: a story. It was far away from the reality of the situation ... a reality readily available to anyone who chose to listen to ground-based evaluations.

And getting back to the original point: That is how I knew that Saddam DIDN'T have WMD.

---------------------------------
Any idea, no matter how much you may agree with it, can be radicalized and employed as an excuse for violence. There is no such thing as a righteous or untouchable philosophy, and when you start thinking that there is, you have become an extremist.- Finn Mac Cumhal

KWICKO

Sunday, September 14, 2008 5:05 PM

Also, as far as I know, chemical and bioweapons don't have the telltale "mushroom cloud" that was the lynchpin of the invasion argument - that the "smoking gun" would be in the form of a mushroom cloud. That and the claims about yellowcake from Niger were the strongest "facts" that the Administration relied on for selling its favorite little war.

Mike

This world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel.

SIGNYM

Sunday, September 14, 2008 5:19 PM

That too.

Maybe my experience gives me a little more info than the average, but I work in the uncomfortable interface between politics and science. The one thing I know for sure is that in the world of politics ANYTHING is do-able (according to them). I've heard politicians describe things in a way that made me cringe, and promises made that pissed me off no end. ("Yeah, we can fingerprint that". Except... we can't.) But at some point "the rubber meets the road". Technical, organizational, and resource difficulties ensue. A sure promise becomes an unsure project.

The reality is that reality trumps all. Promises, fears, scare stories, might-haves and maybes are limited by physical reality. It's easy to inflate our fears.... look at the panic that HIV set off. But when research is done and the limits are known, paranoia should be laid to rest.

---------------------------------
Any idea, no matter how much you may agree with it, can be radicalized and employed as an excuse for violence. There is no such thing as a righteous or untouchable philosophy, and when you start thinking that there is, you have become an extremist.- Finn Mac Cumhal

KWICKO

Sunday, September 14, 2008 5:26 PM

Quote:
But when research is done and the limits are known, paranoia should be laid to rest.

But only AFTER it's served its political purpose!

This world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel.

SIGNYM

Sunday, September 14, 2008 5:31 PM

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!

*wipes tears from eyes*

---------------------------------
Any idea, no matter how much you may agree with it, can be radicalized and employed as an excuse for violence. There is no such thing as a righteous or untouchable philosophy, and when you start thinking that there is, you have become an extremist.- Finn Mac Cumhal

CHRISISALL

Sunday, September 14, 2008 7:20 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:

And getting back to the original point: That is how I knew that Saddam DIDN'T have WMD.

Signy, Finn is showing no flexibility in his thinking on this, he has gone all Herbert on us. Your arguments, while magnificent, are wasted on him I'm afraid. Good show, though.

Other fun facts:

We didn't see Saddam's army moving towards Kuwait by satellite before they invaded.

Reagan didn't know what Ollie North was up to.

Nixon was not a crook.

Vietnam was a necessary war for the domino reasoning.

Columbus was nice to the peeps digging gold for him.

Spartacus never touched little boys in any wrong fashion, as Roman dudes were wont to do.

Some of the first homosapien chicks looked like Raquel Welch.

isall

FREMDFIRMA

Sunday, September 14, 2008 9:09 PM

Although I share this begrudgingly, no harm can come of it now.

Part of the basis for the accusation was the pesticides sold to Saddam by Dow Chemical Corp, you see - stuff we gave him...

BUT, and this is a very, very important but.

Dow emuslified them in such a way as to make them damn near impossible to weaponise before shipping.

Siggy or Rue can explain the importance of that to you in detail if you like.

I sure as hell ain't the type to stand up for a buncha critters like DowChem, but in this particular case they weren't stupid about it, and more importantly, they didn't initially tell Saddam or anyone else that they had done so.

But if you care to verify what I just told you, you will find that it is correct.

As for the accused Bio stuff, what was shipped to him were the standard CDC samples used as a basis for creating and testing both vaccines and other medications to mitigate the effects of known biotoxins like botulism, and frankly you'd play merry hell trying to actually create a bioweapon from those samples, they'd do you less good than an in-the-wild sample cause the strains are just not suited to the purpose of weaponisation, nor could you in any way hide such a program because of the materials you would need to purchase or procure to do it.

As for the rest, to be downright blunt about it, conventional weapons of ANY kind are far more dangerous and on a pound for pound ratio, straight HE will do MORE damage than any Chem or Bio weapon warhead, which is one reason why they're not used - because they DO NOT EFFECTIVELY WORK TO CAUSE CASUALTIES.

They cause fear and panic, but for inflicting casualties, HE or White Phosphorous in particular are far, far more destructive.

Red Thomas has a writeup on it, and as a former NBC specialist trainee* I can attest that nothing I was taught in any way contradicts this assessment.
http://www.sightm1911.com/lib/other/nbc.htm

So it's not like this crap is all that scary to someone who knows anything about it, which is good cause otherwise the mere sight of a can of RAID would drive folk into a panic.

Yes, Raid is prettymuch Sarin gas, don't believe me, go look it up yourself.

The difference is that it's in a concentration intended to be lethal to bugs and not you...
And as anyone who's tried to use it on the little fuckers will tell you, usually not effectively lethal to them either, especially german cockroaches... grrr
bugs!

Anyhow, the PRIMARY intent of NBC shit is to panic and demoralise, and frankly that happens whether it hits anyone or not simple due to it's presence and the fear factor it causes in those who know diddly shit about it.

If you wanna kill someone, use HE.

If you wanna kill em REAL dead and scare the piss out of anyone nearby, use White Phosporous.

Anything else is just not time-cost effective for the purpose, this is proven fact.

Oh, and as an aside - I worked right next to WAY scarier shit, anyone here know what Titanium Tetrachloride aka "Tickle" is ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanium_tetrachloride

It's the REASON that the city of Baltimore has those left over civil defense emergency alarms that get tested every 1pm on monday, cause if that plant ever has a major release, that crap is gonna slide right downwind into the 21225 area code and wipe out a civvie neighborhood.
http://www.mcall.com/features/bal-to.siren20jul20,0,331090.story?page=
1

Tickle is serious shit, and compared to it, VX, Sarin and Anthrax... just ain't scary no more.

-Frem
*completed all but one week of it, before moving to reserve status, and never bothered to complete it as there was no point.