fears of becoming the next Ukraine

POSTED BY: THGRRI
UPDATED: Wednesday, April 9, 2025 20:27
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In Kazakhstan, fears of becoming the next Ukraine

"About a quarter of Kazakhstan’s citizens are ethnic Russians, and many have the same grievances as their compatriots in Ukraine. Some say they feel pressured to speak Kazakh, whose use has spread in recent years. Few Russians are represented in state leadership positions.

Some ethnic Russians are already calling on the Kremlin to send preemptive, peaceful aid, even as they voice their effusive support for Nazarbayev, a former Soviet apparatchik. The Kazakh leader, meanwhile, has promised to crack down on anything that smacks of ethnic division."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/in-kazakhstan-fears-of-beco
ming-the-next-ukraine/2015/05/01/10f7e73c-e878-11e4-8581-633c536add4b_story.html

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Is Russia about to collapse? Could we be so lucky? Yep, with putin leading them it's probable.

Vladimir Putin seems to be taking a page from his historical mentor Stalin as he is using Victory Day to whip up nationalist fervor as he attempts to rewrite history and paint a false picture that Russia is still fighting fascism, but this time it’s Europe and the U.S. who are out to subjugate Mother Russia.

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Kazakhstan: Protesters 'seize airport' as state of emergency declared throughout oil-rich Kazakhstan | World News

https://news.sky.com/story/kazakhstan-state-of-emergency-declared-in-c
apital-nur-sultan-as-protests-intensify-in-almaty-and-other-cities-12509441

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Fuel price cap ends, triggering riots

Kazakh Security Council chief (and former President) is sacked, ministers resign
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resi
gns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/

CTSO sends peacekeepers
https://www.chron.com/news/article/Reports-Protesters-in-Kazakhstan-st
orm-city-16750464.php

A detailed explanation of Kazakh history and current politics

Kazakh faces





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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Okay, so having listened to two videos on the topic, and knowing that there was something of an power struggle between the current President (Tokayev) and the former President (Nazarbayev, former President and - until today- head of the Security Council and chief of the military)...

and having read that Putin spoke with each one separately not even a week ago...

I have an offbeat idea to suggest.

First of all, what I read is that the # of rioters is rather small. Supposedly, only 46 people stormed the airport. However, they do seem to be organized and weaponized since they were able to "storm" and burn a number of key points.

Also, apparently, Nazarbayev, who (until today) was head of the military, did not call out the troops to quell the riots. Why not?

So, what if this WASN'T just a protest over fuel prices? What if this was an attempt by Nazarbayev to retake power?

More interestingly, what if Tokayev triggered this protest ON PURPOSE by dropping the price caps, and used the riots as an excuse to a)sack Nazarbayev b) round up the trouble-makers and c) put CTSO boots on the ground?

Furthermore, what if PUTIN told him to do that, hoping to engineer another Belarus which would put a closer ally firmly in power? That would be kind of a judo-move, wouldn't it? I can imagine Putin telling Tokayev, "Drop the price caps. Nazarbayev can't resist the bait. He'll set up rioters, then you can sack him for not doing his security job, round up partisans, and we'll support you with peacekeepers". It would be a high-risk move, but it might work.

Also, Kazakhstan's sovereign wealth fund is something like 30pct of GDP. They could have subsidized fuel prices for the foreseeable future. Dropping price caps seems an entirely arbitrary move. Not necessitated by finances.

ETA: one last puzzle piece. When a family/ political dynasty is in power as long as Nazarbayev has been, he likely has his fingers deep in the massive Kazakh energy sector and a lot of wealth is probably flowing his way. Displacing him may interrupt a lot of corruption.

Anyway, sheer speculation on my part. Possibly saying 2+2= 22. Interesting to see what happens next!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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THUGR, can you edit your title to be less obscure? How about just retitling it "Kazakhstan 2022" or something like?

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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A collection of short videos of the riots and looting in Kazakhstan.

https://www.rt.com/russia/545259-kazakh-fuel-riots-videos/

Interestingly, there don't seem to be a lot of people involved. No mass protests. Seems as if smallish groups of highly mobile people doing as much as damage as possible and moving on very quickly.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Looks like a probably failed regime change operation, abetted by an internal power struggle. More about that later.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Quote:

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Sitrep Kazakhstan: President Tokayev addressed the nation
January 07, 2022

Kazakhstan is undergoing an anti-terrorist operation

An anti-terrorist operation is underway in our country. The police, National Guard and army are all carrying out an extensive and coordinated work to establish law and order in accordance with the Constitution.

Yesterday, the situation in the cities of Almaty, Aktobe and the Almaty region stabilized. The introduction of the state of emergency regime is yielding results. Constitutional legality is being restored throughout the country.

But terrorists still damage state and private property and use weapons against citizens.

I have given orders to law enforcement agencies and the army to shoot to kill without warning.

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Better not be out on the streets.

Quote:

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There have been calls from abroad for the sides to negotiate for peaceful solutions. What nonsense! How can you negotiate with criminals and murderers?

We had to deal with armed and trained bandits, both local and foreign. It is with bandits and terrorists. So they have to be eliminated. And this will be done in the near future.

The forces of law and order are morally and technically prepared to carry out this task.

As you know, based on the main provisions of the CSTO charter documents, Kazakhstan has asked the heads of participating states to introduce a joint peacekeeping contingent to assist in the establishment of constitutional order.

This contingent arrived in our country for a short period of time to provide cover and support functions.

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the Prime Minister of Armenia, which chairs the CSTO, and to the Presidents of Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

A special word of thanks to Russian President Vladimir Putin. He responded very quickly and, most importantly, in a comradely and warm manner to my appeal.

---

An interesting point was made that within a few short hours of the request, somewhere between 3,000-5,000 paratroopers were on their way. Their bags must have been packed and ready to go, with weapons, ammo, provisions, equipment and everything. They were expecting this.

Quote:

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I also thank the President of the People’s Republic of China, the Presidents of Uzbekistan and Turkey, and the leaders of the United Nations and other international organizations for their words of support.

The tragic events in our country shine a new light on democracy and human rights.

Democracy is not permissiveness and, moreover, not incitement, including in the blogosphere, to unlawful actions.

In my speech on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of Independence, I said that the law and order are the main guarantee of the well-being of our country.

And not only in Kazakhstan, but in all civilized countries.

This does not mean an attack on civil liberties and human rights. On the contrary, as shown by the tragedy of Almaty and other cities in Kazakhstan, it is the lack of respect for the law, permissiveness, and anarchy that lead to violations of human rights.

In Almaty, not only administrative buildings, but also the personal property of civilians suffered at the hands of terrorist bandits. Not to mention the health and lives of hundreds of civilians and military personnel.

I express my sincere condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims.

Let me remind you that at my suggestion, the Law on Peaceful Assemblies of Citizens was passed in May 2020.

This law is, in fact, a major step forward in the promotion of democracy in our country, because it provides for the not permissive, but notificatory nature of rallies and assemblies. Moreover, in central districts of all cities of the country.

But some so-called “human rights activists” and “activists” put themselves above the law and think that they have the right to gather wherever they want and say whatever they want.

Because of the irresponsible actions of these do-gooder activists, police officers are distracted from their basic law enforcement acti

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