The predictions thread

POSTED BY: kpo
UPDATED: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 18:54
VIEWED: 144481
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KPO

Friday, February 20, 2015 6:56 PM

kpo - "That zerohedge is a clown. I still say if Putin moves on Mariupol his covert war will start to unravel."

It's not personal. It's just war.

KPO

Friday, February 20, 2015 7:00 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KPO, at one time your thread served a useful function, but you're quoting posts of mine that aren't even predictions. That's just biased and mean-spirited.

I am certainly posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong. That for me IS the function of this thread. But if there is any quote of yours that you feel has been taken out of context please expand on and clarify it.

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Sunday, February 22, 2015 10:43 PM

Quote:
I am certainly posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong

There are endless spaces in OTHER threads to debate the general correctness of anyone's particular ideas. I'm going to start posting into this thread every single idea of yours that I think is "wrong".

This used to be a PREDICTIONS thread.

Glad to see you screwed up your own (at one time) originally neat idea with your own pettiness and hatred! You just outed yourself as a small-minded bigot- but I knew that anyway.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

KPO

Sunday, February 22, 2015 11:19 PM

What I said was:

Quote:
posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong.

Quote:
I'm going to start posting into this thread every single idea of yours that I think is "wrong".

So long as it's something that will be proved right or wrong in time, please do!

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Monday, February 23, 2015 8:43 PM

Originally posted by THGRRI: Thursday, August 14, 2014 7:37 PM
Putin is creating a situation that is very short term. No one is going to want to invest in a country that is so unpredictable. Children born today will see the oil fields of Russia start drying up before they hit mid-life. Russia manufactures very little except hackers. They are fast retreating back into a criminal state like North Korea. To bad because a rouge state such as theirs has a negative effect on the world.

SIGNYM

Monday, February 23, 2015 9:05 PM

Quote:
What I said was:
posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong. - KPO

I'm going to start posting into this thread every single idea of yours that I think is "wrong".-SIGNY
So long as it's something that will be proved right or wrong in time, please do!-KPO

But it's not that the quotes of mine that you posted didn't begin with "I predict", they didn't even have to do with the future. They were about things that were happening at the moment, or had happened in the recent past, and they were described by other people- heck, they weren't even mine!

With your logic, ANY quote or post about some current or recent event could be xfered here because, yanno, time will tell whether Russia really invaded Ukraine on Aug 14 2014, or whether 2014 really WAS the hottest year, or whether the Hennessey Venom supercar really broke the landspeed record at 270+mph or did it fall a shade short.

The most excellent thing about predictions - the thing that sets them apart from discussions/interpretations/noodlings/ opinions on events - is their ability to demonstrate whether the person's mental model is robust enough to be projected on events that haven't even happened yet

That's a powerful tool, and necessary for any sort of scientific understanding of the world. People can noodle on and discuss and interpret until the cows come home, but until someone says When I drop these two balls of different weights at the same time they will land at the same time ... and the prediction turns out to be true ... ONLY THEN can you have some confidence that the person has a fundamental grasp of processes that are driving events.

This thread should be preserved for predictions ... no matter how phrased, but actual predictions ... that can be traced back to specific posters (not a post that begins "Rumors say that....") and their understanding of current events which leads them to make predictions. All of the other threads are already devoted to the rightness and wrongness of various opinions.

I think you're just sick of me being right about Ukraine, and are trying to dilute my actual predictions with chaff and fluff that isn't even mine, so that you can prove me "wrong".

And I think you're doing this with other people too. This thread needs a more objective moderator.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

KPO

Monday, February 23, 2015 10:31 PM

Quote:
This thread should be preserved for predictions ... no matter how phrased, but actual predictions ... that can be traced back to specific posters (not a post that begins "Rumors say that....")

I disagree. All predictions come with probabilities attached, and those probabilities are rarely 100% - they don't even have to be more than 50%. For example I think it's possible that in the next couple of years we could see a major air disaster around the airspace of a NATO country involving a civilian airliner and a Russian military aircraft with its transponder turned off. I would put that prediction at maybe 30% - in other words I think it probably WON'T happen, but still a 30% chance of a major air disaster is significant and worth mentioning.

When you say things like "There are rumours that X..." or "I'm not sure myself but some are saying that Y..." you are effectively giving predictions with low probabilities. You are not confident that they will happen, and maybe you think that they most likely won't, but YOU obviously think there's a chance that they could be right otherwise you wouldn't be mentioning them.

Quote:
I think you're just sick of me being right about Ukraine,

Lol, that's definitely not it.

Quote:
posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong. - KPO

I should adjust that. It's not about me being certain that your predictions are wrong, but being a lot more doubtful of them than you. So your prediction that Ukraine's goverment could be toppled by far right groups seems to be in the 'it could happen but most likely won't' range, i.e. a probability of something like 10-40% (judging by the wording in your post, you can correct me if I'm wrong). I on the other hand am fairly confident that this won't happen, so my confidence in this prediction is about 1%. We have a large discrepancy between our probability estimates. If in the next few years time Ukraine has a far right revolution it will be a big dent to the validity of my worldview, because it's something that I thought had almost no chance of happening. And it will be a victory for your worldview. If on the other hand Ukraine has no far right revolution, and doesn't even come close to one, that will seem to vindicate my worldview.

So no, predictions don't have to be confident - they just have to be confident compared to other people's. The predictions I dislike and want to ban from this thread are the predictions that are really obvious, that anyone could have made, like "The IMF will implement an austerity plan in Ukraine." Well, duh.

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Wednesday, February 25, 2015 7:55 PM

KPO, nearly every single sentence that you posted is wrong, quite often in multiple ways. All you're doing is justifying your bias (again). But since you're willing to bend your ethics and adjust your "evidence", I guess it's not surprising that you'd twist a few definitions and pervert the scientific method.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

KPO

Thursday, February 26, 2015 7:24 AM

To make Signy happy, here's one from Kiki, that I missed:

Kiki (August 30th 2014) - "But I think Russia has reached the point where it's as ready as it can be to withstand full-on economic (and perhaps other) warfare. And after months of genuine attempts at negotiations it's as clear as it can possibly be that nothing Russia does, or refrains from doing, or says, or offers or proves, is going to change the actions of the Washington-London financialists. So, rather than interpret this as a snit-fit, perhaps it's a considered option. The west has made negotiations fruitless, and Russia can now afford to stop trying."

It's not personal. It's just war.

KPO

Thursday, February 26, 2015 7:43 PM

Another Signy set of predictions, from September:

Signy - "But, as I said, just as autopsies and an investigative report of the Odessa Trades Union killings will never come out, an investigation of the sniper shooting will never be published either, and there's serious question about results of the MH17 investigation ever seeing the light of day as well - most of the principal investigating parties- Nederlands, Ukraine, Australia, Belgium signed a “Non-disclosure Agreement”."

You've done a lot of boasting about the 'accuracy' of your Ukraine predictions Signy, and that's why I've made an effort to start recording them. My guess is people remember the predictions they got right, but forget the ones they got wrong. Good luck with the MH17 one...

It's not personal. It's just war.

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