Predictions for life 100 years from now

POSTED BY: kpo
UPDATED: Sunday, October 6, 2024 21:22
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KPO

Monday, January 16, 2012 6:42 PM

An interesting read, two futorologists discuss some of people's predictions for the future.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16536598

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Last week we asked readers for their predictions of life in 100 years time. Inspired by ten 100-year predictions made by American civil engineer John Elfreth Watkins in 1900, many of you wrote in with your vision of the world in 2112.

Many of the "strange, almost impossible" predictions made by Watkins came true. Here is what futurologists Ian Pearson (IP) and Patrick Tucker (PT) think of your ideas.

1. Oceans will be extensively farmed and not just for fish (Jim 300)

IP: Likelihood 10/10. We will need to feed 10 billion people and nature can't keep up with demand, so we will need much more ocean farming for fish. But algae farming is also on the way for renewable energy, and maybe even for growth of feedstock (raw materials) or resource extraction via GM seaweed or algae.

PT: Good chance. According to Dennis Bushnell, chief scientist at the Nasa Langley Research Center, saltwater algae that's been genetically modified to absorb more nitrogen from the air than conventional algae could free up to 68% of the fresh water that is now tied up in conventional agriculture. This water could go to thirsty populations.

2. We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission (Dev 2)

IP: Likelihood 10/10. Transmission will be just as easy as other forms of brain augmentation. Picking up thoughts and relaying them to another brain will not be much harder than storing them on the net.

PT: Good chance. Synthetic telepathy sounds like something out of Hollywood but it is absolutely possible, so long as "communication" is understood to be electrical signals rather than words.

3. Thanks to DNA and robotic engineering, we will have created incredibly intelligent humans who are immortal (game_over)

IP: Likelihood 9/10. It is more likely that direct brain links using electronics will achieve this, but GM will help a lot by increasing longevity - keeping people alive until electronic immortality technology is freely available at reasonable cost.

PT: Good chance. The idea that breakthroughs in the field of genetics, biotechnology and artificial intelligence will expand human intelligence and allow our species to essentially defeat death is sometimes called the Singularity.

4. We will be able to control the weather (mariebee_)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. There is already some weather control technology for mediating tornadoes, making it rain and so on, and thanks to climate change concerns, a huge amount of knowledge is being gleaned on how weather works. We will probably have technology to be able to control weather when we need to. It won't necessarily be cheap enough to use routinely and is more likely to be used to avoid severe damage in key areas.

PT: Good chance. We will certainly attempt to. A majority of scientists in the US support a federal programme to explore methods for engineering the Earth's climate (otherwise known as geoengineering). These technologies aim to protect against the worst effects of manmade climate change.

5. Antarctica will be "open for business" (Dev 2)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. The area seems worth keeping as a natural wilderness so I am hesitant here, but I do expect that pressure will eventually mean that some large areas will be used commercially for resources. It should be possible to do so without damaging nature there if the technology is good enough, and this will probably be a condition of exploration rights.

PT: Pretty close. Before there is a rush to develop Antarctica we will most likely see a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over the region's resources, or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead. Successful (if not necessarily sustainable) development of the Arctic portends well for the development of Antarctica.

6. One single worldwide currency (from Kennys_Heroes)

IP: Like

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NIKI2

Monday, January 16, 2012 7:22 PM

Interesting, thanx KPO. 1, 4, and 14 are already in existence, or damned close to it, aren't they? 8 and 13 (thank you Aasimov) are already in the works, I've read/seen about them. 11 and 17 are on their way, tho' as noted, in some places it will take a LOT longer! 15 saddens me greatly, but it's what I've guessed will be true for a long time now and am glad I (hopefully) won't be around to see it. 12 fascinates me, tho'. I thought Texas was always the one screaming secession? I've never heard anyone here talk about seceding, seems to me we mostly take for granted that we're one of the states which "gives" more than it "takes", that our wealth keeps us comfortable enough not to mind all that much.

I know for ages and ages we've wanted to split into two Californias, but I've not heard anything about actually seceding. Interesting. Have to look that up.

The rest I either know too little about to comment, or else think are wrong. I thought Joss' belief that Chinese would be a common language was more on point, given their increasing super-power status.

WISHIMAY

Monday, January 16, 2012 8:24 PM

Hey, thanks for the article!!
It's nice to know I'm not the only one who sits around and speculates about the future. It was an interesting read. I always have this theory that whatever year people think that a new tech will be around-if you take the distance in time and double THAT, that's when it'll be here. A bit like home remodeling, and best-case scenarios...There's always somethin' that bogs the process down...

Things can't ever go easy

This is my second attempt to post, soo I'd just be thankful if my posts would stop getting ate, in the tech of the future
Who wants some glitch-y nanobytes in their head, now?? Anybody???

AURAPTOR

Monday, January 16, 2012 9:31 PM

Funny to see these things now, and then how far off the mark they are after the fact.

Like how some thought there'd never be a need for more than 2 or 3 computers, and that no one would need a computer of their own, or would be able to afford one.

Heh.

" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

MAGONSDAUGHTER

Monday, January 16, 2012 9:56 PM

Except the one it was based on, a 100 year prediction made in 1900 was remarkable close.

The Ladies Home Journal of December 1900 ran a very brave list of predictions by one John Elfreth Watkins. Some are quite accurate, some wrong, and many are plain odd. Although grouped into 25 predictions, each one is a collection of not entirely related ideas. Some samples:

Prediction #1: There will probably be from 350,000,000 to 500,000,000 people in America and its possessions by the lapse of another century. Nicaragua will ask for admission to our Union after the completion of the great canal. Mexico will be next. Europe, seeking more territory to the south of us, will cause many of the South and Central American republics to be voted into the Union by their own people.

Prediction #2: The American will be taller by from one to two inches. His increase of stature will result from better health, due to vast reforms in medicine, sanitation, food and athletics. He will live fifty years instead of thirty-five as at present – for he will reside in the suburbs. The city house will practically be no more. Building in blocks will be illegal. The trip from suburban home to office will require a few minutes only. A penny will pay the fare.

Prediction #6: Automobiles will be cheaper than horses are today. Farmers will own automobile hay-wagons, automobile truck-wagons, plows, harrows and hay-rakes. A one-pound motor in one of these vehicles will do the work of a pair of horses or more. Children will ride in automobile sleighs in winter. Automobiles will have been substituted for every horse vehicle now known. There will be, as already exist today, automobile hearses, automobile police patrols, automobile ambulances, automobile street sweepers. The horse in harness will be as scarce, if, indeed, not even scarcer, then as the yoked ox is today.

Prediction #16: There will be No C, X or Q in our every-day alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary. Spelling by sound will have been adopted, first by the newspapers. English will be a language of condensed words expressing condensed ideas, and will be more extensively spoken than any other. Russian will rank second.

Prediction #21: Hot and Cold Air from Spigots. Hot or cold air will be turned on from spigots to regulate the temperature of a house as we now turn on hot or cold water from spigots to regulate the temperature of the bath. Central plants will supply this cool air and heat to city houses in the same way as now our gas or electricity is furnished. Rising early to build the furnace fire will be a task of the olden times. Homes will have no chimneys, because no smoke will be created within their walls.

Prediction #22: Store Purchases by Tube. Pneumatic tubes, instead of store wagons, will deliver packages and bundles. These tubes will collect, deliver and transport mail over certain distances, perhaps for hundreds of miles. They will at first connect with the private houses of the wealthy; then with all homes. Great business establishments will extend them to stations, similar to our branch post-offices of today, whence fast automobile vehicles will distribute purchases from house to house.

RIONAEIRE

Monday, January 16, 2012 10:30 PM

That all sounds horrible, I'm glad I won't be here because a world like that wouldn't be worth living in.

Then again Back to the Future thought we'd have flying cars by 2015 and its three years til then, so they better get started. Maybe it won't be as bad as these people predict after all.

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

DREAMTROVE

Monday, January 16, 2012 10:48 PM

It's pretty easy to tell which have some chance by how they plug in to the human psyche. Here's my take

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1. Oceans will be extensively farmed and not just for fish (Jim 300)

Nah, next.

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2. We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission (Dev 2)

We will have the ability but very few will actually do it.

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3. Thanks to DNA and robotic engineering, we will have created incredibly intelligent humans who are immortal (game_over)

This is one of the more likely ones.

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4. We will be able to control the weather (mariebee_)

No way. It's just not possible. Depends on what you mean by control. Diffuse a hurricane, maybe but again, not likely. No one will have the energy source.

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5. Antarctica will be "open for business" (Dev 2)

Also unlikely. There are far more hospitable places on the earth which are still empty.

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6. One single worldwide currency (from Kennys_Heroes)

Not a chance. This assumes we all bow to one dictator, and the people won't do that not even TPTB will ever do that.

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7. We will all be wired to computers to make our brains work faster (Dev 2)

No, but we will use things that help our minds out, then again, we already do.

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8. Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories (Alister Brown)

We're testing it in mice right now so it's a shoe in that it will be a reality in 100 years.

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9. We will have sussed nuclear fusion (Kennys_Heroes)

I worry about this. It's a very good thing to never let happen. I think y'all can logic out why.

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10. There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin (Bill Walker)

Again, no one is going to surrender to the US and China, so, no.

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11. Eighty per cent of the world will have gay marriage (Paul)

I don't think that came out the way they intended it. I suspect the legal systems of the world will collapse, and the question will be meaningless.

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12. California will lead the break-up of the US (Dev 2)

Someone will, but probably not CA, it's too valuable a prize. Hawaii will probably leave first.

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13. Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy (Ahdok)

No way, it's not a feasible idea. You can get to space on 250 gallons of fuel. With biofuel sythesis the whole trip will cost you less than a trip to Florida does now. So, cheap space travel, but no space elevators.

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14. Women will be routinely impregnated by artificial insemination rather than by a man (krozier 93)

Unlikely. No one wants to be a single mother and the species will internally scream against the idea.

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15. There will be museums for almost every aspect of nature, as so much of the world's natural habitat will have been destroyed (LowMaintenanceLifestyles)

Let's hope not.

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16. Deserts will become tropical forests (jim300)

It would take a much more massive outlay of power. I think that deserts reclamation will happen but nothing this radical.

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17. Marriage will be replaced by an annual contract (holierthanthou)

No. The annual handfasting was a cultural mainstay for thousands of years and was replaced during roman times IIRC. I see no reason why it would suddenly go back.

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18. Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government (krozier93)

Again, no. Not a chance. No one will surrender that way.

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19. War by the West will be fought totally be remote control (LowMaintenanceLifestyles)

I think they will still sacrifice humans because that is why they fight wars. I think that we'll see the introduction of non-lethals into combat though.

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20. Britain will have had a revolution (holierthanthou)

The UK is even more doomed than the US. The union will dissolve post haste.

Tha

RIONAEIRE

Monday, January 16, 2012 11:47 PM

With handfasts, I thought it started out as a year, to try it and see what you think, and then after the year was over you could make a more perminant committment. Am I wrong?

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

SIGNYM

Monday, January 16, 2012 11:49 PM

It will be broilingly hot, and there will only be a billion or so people left, if that.

Next???

MAGONSDAUGHTER

Tuesday, January 17, 2012 12:39 AM

I want flying cars and holidays on Mars. And robots that do all the housework and are called Marvin.

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