Bush = Dumb Ass
POSTED BY: Succatash
UPDATED: Friday, August 20, 2004 04:20
VIEWED: 16362
PAGE 8 of 12
Iraq topic - different slant.
Speaking of predictive modeling, how did I, months in advance, conclude there were no WMD? And along the same lines, how did I conclude dubya knowingly lied about WMD?
The brief answer is this - Hussein was said to have massive stockpiles of chemical and biological agents ready to launch within 45 minutes. Would a sane administration send 150,000 ground forces into an estimated 20-80% FATALITY war?
The extended answer is this -
Even under the best conditions, experts estimated 20 - 80% fatality rates from either a chemical or biological attack. But forces were sent with woefully inadequate precautions (untested suits, leaky suits, suits with parts missing, suits that didn't fit, an inadequate absolute number of suits for all but the most forward troops, faulty chemical sensors, outdated vaccines, diluted vaccines, an insufficient number of vaccines, unknown efficacy due to no strain knowledge).
What would be the POLITICAL consequences of a 20 - 80% FATALITY war? What would be the STRATEGIC consequences?
Bush may not have made this calculation on his own, but someone in his Administration did. And they gambled on two things: 1) that they were right when they (privately) concluded Iraq did NOT have massive stockpile of weapons, and 2) that there would be enough left-overs to hang Hussein, perhaps literally, at the end of the war.
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Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
Geezer, you've been bobbing and weaving to avoid answering ANY questions. Neither do you provide any back-up for YOUR assertions, while demanding it from others. Instead you throw (unsupported) mud at everything people have to say. *
But in answer to the Iraq question, I'll answer your question if you answer mine. But since I already provided one answer - now you have two to answer.
The first question is this:Quote:
The numbers don't take into account Iraqi dead.
HOWEVER, does it not bother you that people died for a lie? That Iraq is not 'free'? Or are you so propagandized that things like that don't matter anymore?
The second question will follow on your answer to the first.
* edited to remove a comment I realized, on reflection, was uncalled for. My apologies for any upset it may have caused.
Sorry. Looking at the posts above, I thought that question was addressed to CONNERFLYNN, who was mentioning casualties.
I'm not sure how I could answer the other question you directed to me any more clearly.
Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
Geezer,
Do you also claim that Iraq is FREE and DEMOCRATIC when the basics of national policy were shoved down their throats by Bremer and the CPA? Whether YOU or I think these are good things is beside the point - it supposed to be Iraq's decision.
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Originally posted by Geezer:
No. Probably not totally free and democratic. Closer than they were a couple of years ago. It will probably take some time to get to the point where there is a stable enough infrastructure to allow complete autonomy. The folks there have no experience with representative government at all and it takes a while to learn and develop the mechanisms.
But, yes, it bothers me that anyone died, it bothers me that people are still dying. Whether it was for a lie or not is still a matter of opinion. I've been thoroughly propagandized by both sides of the argument and am planning to suspend judgement until I see something that proves it to ME, one way or the other. The fact that I don't believe as you do doesn't automatically mean I believe the other side's stance either.
I believe there is a possibility that Iraq can come out of this with a stable and reasonably representative government. I believe it will take a lot of work, and will probably cost more lives. I believe it is a worthwhile goal. I believe that until the U.N. is willing to take the risk of moving their folks back into Iraq to support the formation of such a government, that the CPA and the provisional government, supported by American arms to provide security, is their best bet.
I believe that some folks will make money off the whole thing, just as some were making money off the UNs "Oil for Food" programme. I don't believe that this invalidates the entire concept.
Next questioon, please.
"Keep the Shiny side up"
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Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
Iraq topic - different slant.
Speaking of predictive modeling, how did I, months in advance, conclude there were no WMD? And along the same lines, how did I conclude dubya knowingly lied about WMD?
The brief answer is this - Hussein was said to have massive stockpiles of chemical and biological agents ready to launch within 45 minutes. Would a sane administration send 150,000 ground forces into an estimated 20-80% FATALITY war?
The extended answer is this -
Even under the best conditions, experts estimated 20 - 80% fatality rates from either a chemical or biological attack. But forces were sent with woefully inadequate precautions (untested suits, leaky suits, suits with parts missing, suits that didn't fit, an inadequate absolute number of suits for all but the most forward troops, faulty chemical sensors, outdated vaccines, diluted vaccines, an insufficient number of vaccines, unknown efficacy due to no strain knowledge).
What would be the POLITICAL consequences of a 20 - 80% FATALITY war? What would be the STRATEGIC consequences?
Bush may not have made this calculation on his own, but someone in his Administration did. And they gambled on two things: 1) that they were right when they (privately) concluded Iraq did NOT have massive stockpile of weapons, and 2) that there would be enough left-overs to hang Hussein, perhaps literally, at the end of the war.
I expect that doctrine was much the same as in Gulf War I. Although Iraq had stockpiles of chemical and biological agents then, American air superiority and strength in artillery supression and counter-battery fire were expected to prevent the Iraqis from successfully deploying them. This did apparently prove the case.
"Keep the Shiny side up"
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Quote:
My second response is- OF COURSE Chalabi's statements are self-serving. If they had not MORE IMPORTANTLY been borne out by subsequent events I wouldn't have given them much credit.
The only interview with Chalabi I can find on NPR is dated 05/22/2004, and for some reason the audio slug won't download. What statements did he make that have been borne out in the last 2.5 months?
"Keep the Shiny side up"
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What I saw was a transcript that was older (I think) than the one you're referring to. Unfortunately, the transcript was loaned to me and I no longer have a copy, and at this point it's hard for me to disentangle what I knew before and what I found out afterwards.
However, if you don't mind a best guess, the points that I recall from the transcript were:
Chalabi had been working on being PM for at least a decade.
He disavowed having any responsibility for the bad intelligence that his people provided (of course!)
The eye-opener was that the State Department and the CIA already had a detailed plan for how to deal with post-war Iraq: to "decapitate" the Baath party and use it and the Iraq Army to maintain order. But they were steam-rolled by the civilian advisors in the Pentagon (neocons) with a plan to take over the entire internal workings of Iraq.
I had already figured after Valerie Plame the CIA staff were probably pretty mad at the Administration, and I had a hunch that State Department careerists weren't too happy with Colin Powell constantly being shut down. What I didn't realize what that this went back farther. Once I realized it, the finger-pointing and blame-laying between State/CIA and the neocons was pretty obvious (all you have to do is read Danielle Pletka's columns. Pletka is part of the American Enterprise Institute- AEI- which is a neocon think tank.)
So what I had thought of being a monolithic approach to Iraq was actually quite fractured, with some pretty entrenched disagreement. THe installation of Allawi may actually have been a CIA coup of a sorts.
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Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
What I saw was a transcript that was older (I think) than the one you're referring to. Unfortunately, the transcript was loaned to me and I no longer have a copy, and at this point it's hard for me to disentangle what I knew before and what I found out afterwards.
Chalabi was in good odor with the CPA and US Government (at least publicly) until mid-May of this year. That's when they raided his offices and booted him from the interum government. I'm not sure he would have been on NPR dishing the dirt prior to that time, while he still was in a position of power and with at least apparent US support.
And even admitting a rift between career State Dept and intelligence folk and the political advisors, (no new thing, BTW. Viet Nam comes to mind)It does seem that the net result was getting a bad apple (Chalabi) out of the bunch.
"Keep the Shiny side up"
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The interview was at least a year before the raid. By the time the raid occurred, I had read the interview and interpreted events with that transcript in mind. And the transcript was already several months old when I read it. It WAS suprising because I thought that Chalabi was saying unwise, even dangerous things. I would not, if I were in his shoes, been thumbing my nose at the State Department/ CIA.
BTW, I didn't mean a coup within the Iraqi government, I meant a coup with the USA government. I have this strange unproveable notion that getting rid of Chalabi was an "independent" operation that Rumsfeld et al didn't see coming.
It's clear that Allawi is a head-banger. Iraq security forces have been much more aggressive since he took office- I suspect (again unproveable) that the change of performance has something to do with Baath officers slowing filtering their way back in. BTW, Aussie papers report that Allawi himself may have executed a half-dozen prisoners (a la Diem) just before he took office. With Allawi in office and an actual State Department person (Negroponte) as ambassador, things are going to be much different in Iraq.
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Geezer,
Quote:
Whether it was for a lie or not is still a matter of opinion.
Yours or David Kay's? Which do you think is better informed?
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Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
Geezer, you've been bobbing and weaving to avoid answering ANY questions. Neither do you provide any back-up for YOUR assertions, while demanding it from others. Instead you throw (unsupported) mud at everything people have to say. *
But in answer to the Iraq question, I'll answer your question if you answer mine. But since I already provided one answer - now you have two to answer.
The first question is this:
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The numbers don't take into account Iraqi dead.
HOWEVER, does it not bother you that people died for a lie? That Iraq is not 'free'? Or are you so propagandized that things like that don't matter anymore?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The second question will follow on your answer to the first.
* edited to remove a comment I realized, on reflection, was uncalled for. My apologies for any upset it may have caused.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry. Looking at the posts above, I thought that question was addressed to CONNERFLYNN, who was mentioning casualties.
I'm not sure how I could answer the other question you directed to me any more clearly.
Rue - The answer to your first question is regarding Iraqi deaths is approximately 14,000 total civilian/miltary iraqi deaths.
Not all the deaths were attributed to Coalition actions, as the Iraqi Republican guard as well as the Foreign militants fired upon those who would not fight the coalition. There are still many questions about which were actual civilian deaths and which were not. Particularly since many of the combatants fought in civilian clothing from civilian areas. The body count from Coalition bombing is still far less then those of any other war, showing that we fought with great precision and thought in regards to civilian casualties.
The answer to your second question, is No. War is hell. I'm a realist. I'm sorry that Coalition forces lost their lives. I think it's a shame that Islamafascism is ok (Because it's a cultural ideal and they don't know any different) but Democracy and westernization is bad. I do not believe the war was a lie. Based on all the non-partisan research I have done, I believe it was a valid action. I also believe it was valid strategic positioning to further Democracy in the center of the Middle East as well as pinch Iran (the next to fall) from either side.
Answer to your 3rd question or statement rather, NO. Iraq is free. They are no longer under a tyranical or dictatorial rule. Elections will take place. Governments are not created over night. If Democracy in any form is going to succeed in Iraq, a stable interim government needs to be in place to replace the old. As I recall it took many years to rebuild Europe, as well as Japan. Yet many throughout the world seem to lose touch with reality when it comes to re-building Iraq and instituting a new government unlike any they have experienced.
Finally, I am not propagandized. Because my opinions differ from yours, does not make mine uninformed. On the contrary. Normally (occasionally my emotions get the best of me), I make it a point to back up my assertions with factual evidence not predicated on editorials(opinion pieces)or conspiracy theories, Unlike the majority of those who post in this particular forum.
PS - Sorry Geezer. I'm not sure why that was directed at you. I was out of town over the weekend and didn't have time to respond until today.
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I have a feeling that Iraq will be about as free as South Vietnam under Diem, but it will take at least five years before USA citizens find out that what appears to be a democracy on the surface is actually a dictatorship. Have you looked up Negroponte's credentials lately?
BTW- the foreign ownership rules promulgated by Bremer are ILLEGAL under international law. The rules were designed to prevent the victor from pillaging the vanquished.
The reason that stampeded Congress and the public to support the invasion of Iraq was WMD, and it was a lie. A flat-out fabrication by the Administration to grab Iraqi oil fields. Please dont' start revising history or rationalizing that it was all to the greater good. I understand all of the wonderful geopolitical rationalizations that are behind the oil grab-
we can use that oil to remake the Middle East, gt in the catbird seat of OPEC, transfer our troops out of Saudi Arabia and so forth and so on-
nonetheless no matter how great the reasons sound it is the same mistake that we have been making in the Middle East for decades. You cannot "free a people" if you insist on taking their assets. Quite naturally, they will eventually want it back and then you have to install yet ANOTHER dictatorship to maintain control.
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