WOW - Lookit the DOW go !
POSTED BY: rue
UPDATED: Monday, August 11, 2008 21:55
VIEWED: 3730
PAGE 3 of 4
On Jan 1, 2001, the DOW was at 10,788.00 ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_downturn_of_2002).
To JUST keep up with inflation it would have to be at 13,196.08 today ( http://www.bls.gov/ inflation calculator).
It'll be a lotta' points (1359.39 exactly, as of today) before it can make its way out of cherry-picking range.
It's pretty obvious that I'm not talking about a ONE DAY loss, because really, it wouldn't be so bad - except that it's in addition to the already existing 1138.59 point deficit. The DOW hasn't just failed recently, it's been a continuous failure over the last 7+ years.
You know BigStupidNobody, I've put these figures and links out a half-dozen times already on various threads. If you had any interest in facts at all - which you've amply demonstrated you don't BTW - you could have simply read my posts, looked at the links, and perhaps taken the opportunity to LEARN something.
But that's beyond you.
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"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."
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What I DIDN'T post yesterday which was linked through that horrible left-wing tool Drudge:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrb
s118.xml
RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.
"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.
"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.
RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.
"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.
US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit.
The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.
Morgan Stanley warns of catastrophe
More comment and analysis from the Telegraph
"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.
Kit Jukes, RBS's head of debt markets, said Europe would not be immune. "Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire. The ECB is hell-bent on raising rates.
"The political fall-out could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB. Wider spreads between the German Bunds and peripheral markets seem assured," he said.
Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next year.
***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."
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Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
On Jan 1, 2001, the DOW was at 10,788.00 ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_downturn_of_2002).
To JUST keep up with inflation it would have to be at 13,196.08 today ( http://www.bls.gov/ inflation calculator).
It'll be a lotta' points (1359.39 exactly, as of today) before it can make its way out of cherry-picking range.
On Dec. 20th, 2007 the Dow closed at 13 245 (above your magical 13 196). On Jan. 18th, 2008 the Dow closed at 12 099. That was a whopping 1146 point loss in about a month.
On Mar. 19th, 2008 the Dow closed at 12 099. On Apr. 18th, 2008 the Dow closed at 12 849. That was a stunning 750 point recovery in about a month.
http://money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?symb=DJIA
Aren't statistics great, you can make them say just about whatever you want them to say.
Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
It's pretty obvious that I'm not talking about a ONE DAY loss, because really, it wouldn't be so bad - except that it's in addition to the already existing 1138.59 point deficit. The DOW hasn't just failed recently, it's been a continuous failure over the last 7+ years.
The Dow goes up and down. It could be at the level you think it should be in two months of heavy trading. Or it could be even lower in two months than it is now. I just never see you posting about the Dow rising or recovering from earlier losses and that, my friend, is cherry-picking your stats.
Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
You know BigStupidNobody, I've put these figures and links out a half-dozen times already on various threads. If you had any interest in facts at all - which you've amply demonstrated you don't BTW - you could have simply read my posts, looked at the links, and perhaps taken the opportunity to LEARN something.
But that's beyond you.
You are right Rue. I cannot accept your cherry-picked stats without keeping the bigger picture in mind. I know it is a failing that irks you to no end and yet I find myself completely unwilling to change it.
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http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/dow-long.html
Look again. 1992 to 2001 - overall fantastic growth, even given the slight dip 1999 - 2001. The DOW started 1993 (Clinton) at 3301.11. To break even with inflation during his presidency it would have had to have reached 4,045.86. It reached 10,788.00. I don't know how one can cherry pick their way around such great performance. (I have no doubt you'll try though.)
OTOH, 2001 to present - worse than sideways. No cherry picking of a single day - AS YOU HAVE DONE - can erase that miserable record.
I took a 7+ year average to make my point. And you ? You can't say squat without rummaging through the trash heap of your biases.
***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."
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I'm guessing all the pro-Bush people are silently grinding their teeth. The DOW went UP ! DAMNIT ! Somebody should give Bush credit for its GREAT PERFORMANCE.
Well, when I posted about the miserable DOW performance I was told (by people who didn't read my post or understand where I got my data from) that I was cherry-picking individual and particularly bad data.
I don't think the shrublets should cherry-pick one good day either.
For the record, the DOW closed at 11734.32
It opened 2001 at 10788.00. If it had merely kept up with inflation, it would be at 13329.06 today.
***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."
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Quote:But that damn Clinton wouldn't let it...
Originally posted by rue:
For the record, the DOW closed at 11734.32
It opened 2001 at 10788.00. If it had merely kept up with inflation, it would be at 13329.06 today.
And Carter- let's not forget his negative effect upon the Bush Administration...And that LIBERAL Soviet ass-kissing Kennedy...they all are to blame- effin' us up while Republicans were trying to save us...
...in their own way...
Chrisisall
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Quote:Too late.
Originally posted by BigDamnNobody:
I hope to see you updating this thread next week when the Dow rises and more than overcomes it's ONE DAY losses from today. Don't want anyone to think you are cherry-picking your stats now do you.
Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.
Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.
-- Cicero
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Let's take a look at the short term picture first:
Here are the figures for the Dow Jones annual close and what it should be based on inflation adjustments for 2000 to 2008 with source links:
(Dow Close Link - Close as of Dec 31st of each year)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI
(Inflation Rate Adjustment Calculator based on Dec 2000 to Dec of each year)
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Inflation_Rate_Calcu
lator.asp
year --- DOW close --- Adj Inf Rate --- inflation adjusted value for 2000 --- % Diff
_________________________________________________________
2000 --- 10373.54 ----- n/a --- 10373.54 -- n/a
2001 --- 9851.56 ------ 1.55 -- 10534.33 -- (-6.83)
2002 --- 8896.09 ------ 3.97 -- 10785.37 -- (-18.89)
2003 --- 9899.05 ------ 5.97 -- 10992.84 -- (-10.94)
2004 --- 10590.22 ----- 9.37 -- 11345.54 -- (-7.55)
2005 --- 10912.27 ----- 13.1 -- 11732.47 -- (-8.20)
2006 --- 12194.13 ----- 14.2 -- 11846.58 -- 3.48
2007 --- 13264.82 ----- 20.79 - 12530.20 -- 5.54
2008 -- *11656.07 ---- *25.76 - 13045.76 -- (-11.92)
_________________________________________________________
*Close as of Aug 11, 2008, Inf Adj Rate based on Dec 2000 to Jun 2008
In the short term, Rue is correct, this looks pretty bad, and certainly matches my own economic situation which isn't terrible, but not where I'd like to be.
Since Rue mentioned the Clinton Administration, let's take a look at the numbers during that time period. Here are the figures for the Dow Jones annual close and what it should be based on inflation adjustments for 1992 to 2000:
(Inflation Rate Adjustment Calculator based on Dec 1992 to Dec of each year)
year --- DOW close --- Adj Inf Rate --- inflation adjusted value for 1992 --- % Diff
_________________________________________________________
1992 --- 3301.11 ------ n/a --- 3301.11 -- n/a
1993 --- 3754.09 ------ 2.75 -- 3391.89 -- 9.65
1994 --- 3812.91 ------ 5.50 -- 3482.67 -- 8.66
1995 --- 5063.65 ------ 8.17 -- 3570.81 -- 29.48
1996 --- 6448.27 ------ 11.77 - 3689.65 -- 42.78
1997 --- 7908.25 ------ 13.81 - 3756.99 -- 52.49
1998 --- 9106.77 ------ 15.57 - 3815.09 -- 58.11
1999 --- 11497.12 ----- 18.60 - 3915.12 -- 65.95
2000 --- 10373.54 ----- 22.62 - 4047.82 -- 60.97
_________________________________________________________
Obviously, the economy was booming during this time period, and its reflected in these numbers!
If you combine the two sets and look at the numbers in a long term view, however, the picture isn't nearly so bleak. Here are the figures for the Dow Jones annual close and what it should be based on inflation adjustments for 1992 to 2008:
(Inflation Rate Adjustment Calculator based on Dec 1992 to Dec of each year)
year --- DOW close --- Adj Inf Rate --- inflation adjusted value for 1992 --- % Diff
_________________________________________________________
1992 --- 3301.11 ------ n/a --- 3301.11 -- n/a
1993 --- 3754.09 ------ 2.75 -- 3391.89 -- 9.65
1994 --- 3812.91 ------ 5.50 -- 3482.67 -- 8.66
1995 --- 5063.65 ------ 8.17 -- 3570.81 -- 29.48
1996 --- 6448.27 ------ 11.77 - 3689.65 -- 42.78
1997 --- 7908.25 ------ 13.81 - 3756.99 -- 52.49
1998 --- 9106.77 ------ 15.57 - 3815.09 -- 58.11
1999 --- 11497.12 ----- 18.60 - 3915.12 -- 65.95
2000 --- 10373.54 ----- 22.62 - 4047.82 -- 60.97
2001 --- 9851.56 ------ 24.52 - 4110.54 -- 58.28
2002 --- 8896.09 ------ 27.48 - 4208.26 -- 52.70
2003 --- 9899.05 ------ 29.88 - 4287.48 -- 56.69
2004 --- 10590.22 ----- 34.11 - 4427.12 -- 58.20
2005 --- 10912.27 ----- 38.69 - 4578.31 -- 58.04
2006 --- 12194.13 ----- 42.21 - 4694.51 -- 61.50
2007 --- 13264.82 ----- 48.02 - 4886.30 -- 63.16
2008 -- *11656.07 ----- 54.20 - 5090.31 -- 56.33
_________________________________________________________
*Close as of Aug 11, 2008, Inf Adj Rate based on Dec 1992 to Jun 2008
What does all this mean? It means that when you are dealing with the economy, you need to have perspective, and that means looking at both short term and long term views, and not excluding either from the discussio
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Stuff like this makes me very satisfied that I don't have the bulk of my assets in untrustworthy fiat money backed by policies of usury and speculation.
-F
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Thanks for the positive view, Raz. Hey- even gas prices have come down some!
*re-thinks his negativity*
Nah- the sky's still gonna fall, just later than I thought is all.
Chrisisall
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