Amateur Futurists Check In Here!

POSTED BY: Kwicko
UPDATED: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 17:01
VIEWED: 4014
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KWICKO

Sunday, June 1, 2008 6:23 PM

We seem to be in general agreement that the US, and probably the world, might be in for some tough times in the next few years. What kind of things do you think are on the horizon? What inventions will spur new industries? What does your future hold?

The amateur futurist in me has a few ideas that have been rolling around in my head, and this seemed like a good time to whip out the ol' crystal ball, just so we don't all get depressed about hard times...

In another post, AuRaptor mentioned Natural Gas as a clean alternative fuel, and that's something I just tend to overlook and forget about, and I shouldn't. I'm a "car guy", so I tend to pay close attention to anything that's going to affect my hobbies and toys. CNG is a pretty good alternative (it does burn clean, but tends to produce less power than gasoline in a given engine setup), but I wonder why no one seems to be trying to mate it to hybrid technology of the sort seen in the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight, among others. It seems a natural fit - CNG and no plug.

Also, I don't tend to like big SUVs, because I think for 99% of the stuff they're used for, they're utterly useless, except as status symbols. Plus, being that my daily driver is a minuscule Honda CRX, I tend to view large trucks as rolling chicanes, roadblocks that do little except block my view of the road ahead... BUT - what if it were the big SUVs and pickups that were getting the hybrid treatment? I've been lobbying for this for a while, and Chevy is the first to market with it, in their Tahoe Hybrid. It seems to me to be a perfect application of the technology. Taking a car like the Honda Civic, which already gets exemplary mileage, and making it more fuel efficient, just won't save as much gasoline as taking a gas-guzzler and cutting its fuel use by half. Plus, electric motors make their peak torque from zero RPM, and stepping off the line in a large truck is definitely where you need peak torque, just to get all that mass rolling. So mate a smaller gas or diesel (or CNG) engine to an electric (or an electric at each wheel, for even better power and traction), and you get the power you want and the fuel savings you now need.

And this could work just as well in the next generation of commercial vehicles, such as 18-wheelers.

How do we wean ourselves off expensive oil?

I don't think there is any one single solution (the "magic bullet") to our oil dependence, but I *DO* think there are dozens of tiny solutions, all of which could consolidate and combine into a larger solution. Say, one or two percent of cars go to biodiesel, one or two percent to CNG, ditto for corn ethanol, many more go for a gas/ethanol mix, a few for hybrid gas/electric, and so on, while at the same time the electric grid starts moving away from coal and more towards wind, sun, and water power, as well as some limited use of nuclear power. Before you know it, the demand for oil is going down, and Big Oil, like any other business, responds to shrinking market share and lessening demand by slashing prices, and by trying to get into the wind, sun, and water game and getting deeply into research and development of alternative fuels, which up to now they have been doing their darnedest to keep out of the marketplace for all these years. I've never understood why businesses will pay so much money in lobbyists, lawsuits, time and effort to defeat new technology, when they could be embracing it and reaping the benefits of it sooner, rather than later.

And I know for a fact that we're about one major breakthrough away from exceedingly cheap solar power. The same way that silicon microprocessors made cheap and fast computers possible, the solar industry is just waiting for that breakthrough in solar cell technology. When that happens, expect to see solar cropping up everywhere. One thing I can't wait to see (and which I'm assured is not out of the realm of possibility by a friend who holds patents in solar cell technology) would be things tying solar power into cars. Not cars running on solar energy, but things like

AURAPTOR

Sunday, June 1, 2008 10:42 PM

Quote:
CNG is a pretty good alternative (it does burn clean, but tends to produce less power than gasoline in a given engine setup),

Just a quick little side note. Years ago, I want to say a full 10-12 yrs or so, I recall a interview w/ a chemist. I can't even say if it was on T.V. or radio, but I'll never forget what the guy said. Asked why we've not come up w/ an alternative power source , to replace gasoline, the chemist stated simply.... there is nothing else. He went on to explain that there's simply nothing else that we know about , which yields so much power and is so portable as refined petroleum oil. Until we figure out a way to miniaturize a nuclear reactor to fit safely into the confines of an automobile, we might as well get the most out of what we've got. And that's what it really all comes down to. Try as we might, and as much as it annoys some to suggest that....there ARE no other viable answers to replace gasoline. We're simply going to have to accept reality and acknowledge that we're fate's bitch.

That doesn't mean there aren't other sources, which would still work, but to a far lesser degree, to fix our energy needs.

It is not those who use the term "Islamo-Fascism" who are sullying the name of Islam; it is the Islamo-Fascists. - Dennis Prager

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "

CITIZEN

Sunday, June 1, 2008 11:35 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:
Quote:
CNG is a pretty good alternative (it does burn clean, but tends to produce less power than gasoline in a given engine setup),

Just a quick little side note. Years ago, I want to say a full 10-12 yrs or so, I recall a interview w/ a chemist. I can't even say if it was on T.V. or radio, but I'll never forget what the guy said. Asked why we've not come up w/ an alternative power source , to replace gasoline, the chemist stated simply.... there is nothing else. He went on to explain that there's simply nothing else that we know about , which yields so much power and is so portable as refined petroleum oil. Until we figure out a way to miniaturize a nuclear reactor to fit safely into the confines of an automobile, we might as well get the most out of what we've got. And that's what it really all comes down to. Try as we might, and as much as it annoys some to suggest that....there ARE no other viable answers to replace gasoline. We're simply going to have to accept reality and acknowledge that we're fate's bitch.

That doesn't mean there aren't other sources, which would still work, but to a far lesser degree, to fix our energy needs.

That's what they said about coal.

More insane ramblings by the people who brought you beeeer milkshakes!
No one can see their reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.

ERIC

Monday, June 2, 2008 12:51 AM

Engaging tinfoil hat...

I have a terrible feeling you're going to see more and more regulation about who can own solar technology as it becomes more efficient and necessary. Corpos might start forcing legislation to monopolize access so they can squeeze the proles. After all, you can't threaten to shut off the sun if people don't pay (unless you're Mr. Burns in Springfield), and you certainly can't allow individual energy independence, now can you?

On the other hand, I think low-tech innovation will start popping up. I once read about a clever invention for use in hot desert third world countries involving a container jacketed with a hollow ring open to the air. Sand is poured into the ring then soaked with water. As the water evaporates it cools whatever's inside the inner container, acting as a primitive but effective cold box.

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT

Monday, June 2, 2008 1:54 AM

I worked, for a while, for a company that manufactured CNG fuel cylinders and systems for mostly fleet type vehicles. They sold systems to the Post Office, and their successor company got the contract for fuel tanks for the Los Angeles bus fleet. The weakness of CNG , as you pointed out, is that it is relatively low energy, compared to gasoline. It must be compressed to very high pressure to store enough of it to get reasonable range. Those busses, for example, have the entire roof covered with fuel tanks 18 in. in diameter and 10 feet long, and, fully fueled , are at 3600 psi.
Tanks are either very heavy, if made of steel, or very expensive, if made of composite fibreglass and aluminum. In smaller vehicles, they fill up all of the trunk, or if in a pickup truck, most of the bed.
There are issues with potential explosion or fire, especially in a colission. Elaborate precautions, testing and safety factors are included the manufacturing process to minimize risks. The one catastrophic failure I heard about, occurred in a fueling incident. A tank being deliberately over-pressured to get increased range, failed. The explosion destroyed several similar vehicles at the fueling station, and completely flattened the station itself.
The company then considered CNG to be a stop-gap measure, with a projected life of about 15 years, before hydrogen fuel cell cars were successfully developed, and would replace gasoline and CNG power. Some of its executives went into the hydrogen powered car market, but, the last I heard, that had fallen on hard times, R & D wise, and was not making much progress.

KWICKO

Monday, June 2, 2008 2:18 AM

Quote:
On the other hand, I think low-tech innovation will start popping up. I once read about a clever invention for use in hot desert third world countries involving a container jacketed with a hollow ring open to the air. Sand is poured into the ring then soaked with water. As the water evaporates it cools whatever's inside the inner container, acting as a primitive but effective cold box.

Niiiiiice... I like that idea. I also like the little wind-up radios that are powered by a clockspring and can be wound up again and again. Cheap, effective, no plug or batteries needed.

On the solar thing, you're probably more right than you know. I hope not, but you probably are... :(

Mike

KIRKULES

Monday, June 2, 2008 2:26 AM

It seems to me that the only energy sources that make sense for the future are hydrogen and solar energy. Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe and can be used in standard internal combustion engines, fuel cells and turbine engines with zero pollution. Hydrogen is also a good way of storing solar energy for times when the sun isn't out. Technology is already being used that powers remote telecommunication equipment with solar power during the day and hydrogen at night. There is already technology to print solar cells onto a film at half the cost of traditional solar cells and the solar film can be applied to any surface. The cost per/kilowatt of solar power is dropping quickly and in a few more years there will be solar shingles for roofing homes that will generate all your power needs plus some in areas that get enough sunlight(sorry Seattle). The excess energy produced using solar will be used to make hydrogen from water and will power a micro-turbine engine driving a personal power source. Micro-turbines are already available and cost effective for businesses and small communities. This technology will have a lot of appeal to those that like the idea of living off the grid.

Natural gas is the obvious solution for the short term and with new liquefaction technology and more pipelines will be a good clean energy source until solar and hydrogen become more cost effective.

ERIC

Monday, June 2, 2008 2:48 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Kwicko:

Niiiiiice... I like that idea. I also like the little wind-up radios that are powered by a clockspring and can be wound up again and again. Cheap, effective, no plug or batteries needed.

On the solar thing, you're probably more right than you know. I hope not, but you probably are... :(

Mike

Now that I think about it, it's likely a bit of ancient tribal technology that nobody bothered to patent til now. I have a hand crank flashlight, it's a pain to charge but always dependable!

The more I read and reread author Frank Herbert's works the more prophetic he seems. 'Hydraulic despotism' and simplistic but genius technology are two of his many recurrent themes. He also lived for a time in an experimental home that was completely energy-independent- back in the seventies! So it's certainly possible, it may just take the political will to make it happen on large scale.

"In America, political will is a renewable resource." - Al Gore

KWICKO

Monday, June 2, 2008 4:19 AM

Quote:
Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe and can be used in standard internal combustion engines, fuel cells and turbine engines with zero pollution.

A minor quibble here - "zero pollution" and "zero emissions" are false statements. They should be corrected to read "zero TAILPIPE pollution", since the manufacturing of the equipment to use them, and the manufacturing of that manufacturing equipment, and so on, definitely still does produce pollutants.

But I get your point - zero tailpipe emissions is a good start and a laudable goal. It doesn't have to happen overnight, and it doesn't have to mean that every vehicle everywhere is such a vehicle. What it means is that we start to REDUCE the amount of pollution we're putting out, hopefully someday to levels that are less than those of today, and levels that are actually REMOVING pollutants that are already present.

If that sounds crazy, picture this: A few years back, Volvo unveiled one of their new cars that features a unique type of catalytic converter. They unveiled it in a crowded conference room in Houston, Texas (according to Car&Driver Magazine), which at the time had among the worst air quality in the United States. They put pollution "sniffers" on the car, at the air intake and at the exhaust, all while nervous company wonks squirmed in their chairs at the idea of being in a closed room with a running automobile. The air quality results showed that that the gases coming out of the tailpipe actually had FEWER pollutants than the air going into the intake! So, theoretically, with this type of converter, we'd actually be cleaning the air as we drove, not polluting it further.

That's just a small example. Actually, cars are so much more efficient now than they used to be that this isn't even that uncommon. The majority of pollutants in the air around cities now isn't coming from most cars - it's coming from factories, power plants (most are still coal-burning, and not even "clean coal" as it's called), and large diesel trucks. The car gets most of the blame because there's not really a "car lobby" for keeping the government's nose out of our... uhhhh, tailpipes. :) The trucking lobby has resisted cleaner exhaust standards for years, but they're starting to come around, too, because they've realized that for a growing part of the population, "cleaner and greener" is actually a selling point.

As far as pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, I don't think the US is doing enough, but we are doing far, FAR more than places like Eastern Europe and China. Is it enough to help? Well, maybe if we can try to lead by example, it might get them on board.

And solar roof shingles? LOVE that idea!

I don't know how far we are from viable hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles for mainstream use. I know Honda has a pilot program in the Los Angeles area that's putting some of their fuel-cell cars in the hands of consumers for testing and feedback. I'd love to get my hands on one.

And for those who don't think hybrids or electrics can be sexy, I'd point to the Tesla Roadster (still out of most of our price range at $100,000), an all-electric sports car with great performance and decent range. And Honda has shown several concept cars using hybrid drivetrains in new configurations. One such version coupled a four-door body with Accord-like interior dimensions with a front-drive V6 and a small electric motor in each rear wheel, which generated performance similar to that of the Acura NSX. Lexus has a hybrid version of their largest sedan that, all told, pumps out over 500 horsepower when all the motors hook up, and still averages over 20mpg - not bad at all for a 5000-pound luxo-barge.

One thing that HASN'T been addressed in any of this, though, is the battery packs, and what to do with them when they're dead and gone. They're considered toxic waste, so where do they all go?

KWICKO

Monday, June 2, 2008 4:23 AM

Kirk: Don't think for a moment that the "zero emissions" remark was aimed at you. You mentioned something that I thought should be cleared up a bit, but mostly I get mad at the greenies who keep harping on about zero-emission vehicles, and I try to point out to them that there is no such thing. Even if we rely on our feet, there are still "emissions" that have to be considered, and when we use any kind of machine to get us around, there are most definitely going to be emissions at some point along the manufacturing chain.

Just wanted to clear that up, so nobody thought I was piling on or singling out anyone here.

So we're good.

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