Turns out it was all just hot air...
POSTED BY: Hero
UPDATED: Saturday, April 19, 2008 03:13
VIEWED: 4311
PAGE 1 of 7
Global warming 'dips this year'
By Roger Harrabin
BBC News environment analyst
Global temperatures will drop slightly this year as a result of the cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said.
The World Meteorological Organization's secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer.
This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory.
But experts say we are still clearly in a long-term warming trend - and they forecast a new record high temperature within five years.
The WMO points out that the decade from 1998 to 2007 was the warmest on record. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74C.
Rises 'stalled'
LA NINA KEY FACTS
La Nina translates from the Spanish as "The Child Girl"
Refers to the extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific
Increased sea temperatures on the western side of the Pacific mean the atmosphere has more energy and frequency of heavy rain and thunderstorms is increased
Typically lasts for up to 12 months and generally less damaging event than the stronger El Nino
La Nina and El Nino are two great natural Pacific currents whose effects are so huge they resonate round the world.
El Nino warms the planet when it happens; La Nina cools it. This year, the Pacific is in the grip of a powerful La Nina.
It has contributed to torrential rains in Australia and to some of the coldest temperatures in memory in snow-bound parts of China.
Mr Jarraud told the BBC that the effect was likely to continue into the summer, depressing temperatures globally by a fraction of a degree.
This would mean that temperatures have not risen globally since 1998 when El Nino warmed the world.
Watching trends
A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming has peaked and argue the Earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse gases than predicted.
But Mr Jarraud insisted this was not the case and noted that 2008 temperatures would still be well above average for the century.
"When you look at climate change you should not look at any particular year," he said. "You should look at trends over a pretty long period and the trend of temperature globally is still very much indicative of warming.
"La Nina is part of what we call 'variability'. There has always been and there will always be cooler and warmer years, but what is important for climate change is that the trend is up; the climate on average is warming even if there is a temporary cooling because of La Nina."
Adam Scaife, lead scientist for Modelling Climate Variability at the Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, said their best estimate for 2008 was about 0.4C above the 1961-1990 average, and higher than this if you compared it with further back in the 20th Century.
Mr Scaife told the BBC: "What's happened now is that La Nina has come along and depressed temperatures slightly but these changes are very small compared to the long-term climate change signal, and in a few years time we are confident that the current record temperature of 1998 will be beaten when the La Nina has ended."
H
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What are you talkin' about?
Ted Turner, maybe the #2 guy in the Global Bowel Movement behind Gore is going around now on TV saying that all crops are going to fail in 20-40 years, and that humanity will be reduced to cannibalism. Isn't it against the law, or at least highly in-appropriate to abuse the mentally ill for political and capital gain? Can I, as a concerned citizen, file a suit against CNN & PBS for exploiting Mr. Turner's dementia in public?
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You must belong to the Auraptor School of Economic Analysis. Ignore the fact that any parameter in a complex system experiences variation, grab the ONE stat you can find that backs your viewpoint, ignore everything else, and blow your ass online.
Good one!
I can go to work feeling amused!
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Let's party like it's 1929.
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Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Ignore the fact that any parameter in a complex system experiences variation, grab the ONE stat you can find that backs your viewpoint, ignore everything else, and blow your ass online.
I would think that perhaps the most important stat in global warming is temperature.
Since 1998 this has become a crisis yet there is no actual warming during that period. Thats like taking shelter from a storm that does not exist.
I also note that global cooling was a major crisis in the late 1970s and the 1930s...
H
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Holy shit, seriously, the issue of global warming is settled....even the people who say we aren't at fault aren't saying it isn't happening. I thought you weren't a religious man Hero, but here you are, going against the current of science, in favor of dogmatic certainty, again. What is it about this topic that you so consistently feel compelled to convolute the facts with your common "sense?"
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Quote:Did you actually read the article that you posted? it said
Since 1998 this has become a crisis yet there is no actual warming during that period. Thats like taking shelter from a storm that does not exist.
Quote:
The WMO points out that the decade from 1998 to 2007 was the warmest on record. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74C. ... Adam Scaife, lead scientist for Modelling Climate Variability at the Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, said their best estimate for 2008 was about 0.4C above the 1961-1990 average, and higher than this if you compared it with further back in the 20th Century.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/
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Let's party like it's 1929.
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Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:Quote:Did you actually read the article that you posted? it said
Since 1998 this has become a crisis yet there is no actual warming during that period. Thats like taking shelter from a storm that does not exist.Quote:
The WMO points out that the decade from 1998 to 2007 was the warmest on record. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74C. ... Adam Scaife, lead scientist for Modelling Climate Variability at the Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, said their best estimate for 2008 was about 0.4C above the 1961-1990 average, and higher than this if you compared it with further back in the 20th Century.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/
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Let's party like it's 1929.
Yeah, was wondering about that myself.
Apparently, he just read the first line, though "This'll show those libruls", and posted it without even noticing that the actual body of the text refutes him.
I have to assume, Hero, that you are not so incompetant in court. You apparently didn't even get to the forth sentence:
Quote:
But experts say we are still clearly in a long-term warming trend - and they forecast a new record high temperature within five years.
Thanks for making it easy to poke holes in your post, though.
"I thoroughly disapprove of duels. If a man should challenge me, I would take him kindly and forgivingly by the hand and lead him to a quiet place and kill him."
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Quote:
Originally posted by Righteous9:
Holy shit, seriously, the issue of global warming is settled....even the people who say we aren't at fault aren't saying it isn't happening. I thought you weren't a religious man Hero, but here you are, going against the current of science, in favor of dogmatic certainty, again. What is it about this topic that you so consistently feel compelled to convolute the facts with your common "sense?"
Those who say we aren't at fault are also saying there's nothing to worry about, and that nothing we do will influence the climate , either way. Science doesn't side w/ the ' man made global warming' crowd, never has. So why even try to bring science into the equation?
It is not those who use the term "Islamo-Fascism" who are sullying the name of Islam; it is the Islamo-Fascists. - Dennis Prager
" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "
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Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:
So why even try to bring science into the equation?
Because it's better than sticking our fingers in our ears and saying "Nya Nya, I can't hear you" like you and others do.
I'll take science over rationalizing or self-denial any day.
Besides, I though you wingnuts stick to the "the science isn't conclusive" meme? It can say it's not man-made if it's inconclusive. Can't have it both ways, Rappy.
"I thoroughly disapprove of duels. If a man should challenge me, I would take him kindly and forgivingly by the hand and lead him to a quiet place and kill him."
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Quote:It is far from being settled.
Originally posted by Righteous9:
Holy shit, seriously, the issue of global warming is settled....even the people who say we aren't at fault aren't saying it isn't happening.
I haven't seen any compelling evidence that proves global warming is happening. It doesn't mean it isn't happening, but I have yet to see proof. I still have way too many questions to say the issue is "settled."
If you are very confident of the evidence, perhaps you can help answer my questions. I would appreciate it.
http://www.fireflyfans.net/thread.asp?b=18&t=27459&m=475215
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Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt.
-- Richard Feynman
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