Predicting the future with 90% accuracy... and Iran

POSTED BY: SignyM
UPDATED: Monday, August 31, 2026 23:59
VIEWED: 8354
PAGE 1 of 4

1 2 3 4 NEXT PAGE

SIGNYM

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 7:04 PM

Mathematical Fortune-Telling
How well can game theory solve business and political disputes?
Julie J. Rehmeyer

Predicting the future is not very hard, according to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: a little mathematics is all you need. Figuring out how to manipulate a situation to achieve specific aims is a bit less straightforward, but Bueno de Mesquita says his mathematical tools can usually do that, too.

The New York University political science professor has developed a computerized game theory model that predicts the future of many business and political negotiations and also figures out ways to influence the outcome. Two independent evaluations, one by academics and one by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, have both shown that about 90 percent of his predictions have been accurate. Most recently, he has used his mathematical tools to offer approaches for handling the growing nuclear crisis with Iran.

Bueno de Mesquita provides the computer tools, but he relies on political or business experts to identify specific issues, their possible outcomes, and the key players.... Bueno de Mesquita finds that he can get experts to agree on what information the model needs as input, even when the experts disagree sharply on expected outcomes. .... "It's basic information that experts agree on and that you can even find in The Economist."

The details of his study of negotiation options with Iran are classified, but Bueno de Mesquita says that the broad outline is that there is nothing the United States can do to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear energy for civilian power generation. The more aggressively the U.S. responds to Iran, he says, the more likely it is that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. The upshot of the study, Bueno de Mesquita argues, is that the international community needs to find out if there is a way to monitor civilian nuclear energy projects in Iran thoroughly enough to ensure that Iran is not developing weapons.

(A list of accurate but surprising predicitons can be found here)

... The main reason that the model generates more reliable predictions than experts do is that "the computer doesn't get bored, it doesn't get tired, and it doesn't forget," he says. In the analysis of nuclear technology development in Iran, for example, experts identified 80 relevant players. Because no individual can keep track of all the possible interactions between so many players, human analysts focus on five or six key players. The lesser players may not have a lot of power, Buena de Mesquita says, but they tend to be knowledgeable enough to influence how key decision-makers understand the issues. His model can keep track of those influences when a human can't.

www.sciencenews.org/articles/20071027/mathtrek.asp

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

RUE

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 7:14 PM

"the computer doesn't get bored, it doesn't get tired, and it doesn't forget"

Having played games of various types against a computer - where you both have the same rules - I can attest to that. The computer also never gets discouraged, angry, or frustrated, nor does it take mental shortcuts or have an agenda (aside from the algorithm by which it plays).

It's a lot like 'expert' medical algorithms beating out doctors at every turn.

I'm not surprised that a computer could predict with such accuracy - it's a testament to both the 'unfailing-ness' of the computer and the accuracy of the algorithms programmed into it.

Sadly, I guarantee no one will be paying attention.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

SIGNYM

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 8:25 PM

\
---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

HERO

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 8:46 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
"the computer doesn't get bored, it doesn't get tired, and it doesn't forget"

It does if you forget to save...

H

SERGEANTX

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 8:57 PM

Who is Hari Seldon?

SergeantX

"Dream a little dream or you can live a little dream. I'd rather live it, cause dreamers always chase but never get it." Aesop Rock

SIGNYM

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 9:00 PM

Quote:
Who is Hari Seldon?

The thought had occurred to me too.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

RUE

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 9:17 PM

What I wonder - if the 'players' use the model to seek an optimum solution *, does that change the dynamics of the model ?

* One would hope that in this case, a non-nuclear Iran is considered the optimum solution. But - I guarantee Bush & Co are NOT seeking a non-nuclear Iran, just as they were NOT seeking WMDs in Iraq.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

FREDGIBLET

Wednesday, October 31, 2007 12:19 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
What I wonder - if the 'players' use the model to seek an optimum solution *, does that change the dynamics of the model ?

Any change to any parameter in the model will change the dynamics, thus tweaking the model with "what-ifs" to see what the best slution is will change everything.

RUE

Wednesday, October 31, 2007 12:47 AM

And that's where what you do is assume everyone is seeking an optimum.

But anyway, this is one of those problems where one would think that if there's an obvious solution, it would be implemented. B/c there are so many problems with no solutions, why not solve the things you can ?

How many here think Bush is angling for a way to bomb Iran --- no matter what ?

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

FREDGIBLET

Wednesday, October 31, 2007 1:11 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
And that's where what you do is assume everyone is seeking an optimum.

To be more precise they make the assumption that everyone is seeking an optimum for themselves.

Quote:
But anyway, this is one of those problems where one would think that if there's an obvious solution, it would be implemented. B/c there are so many problems with no solutions, why not solve the things you can ?

Obvious != good, there are many obvious solutions to many different problems (for instance fire is an obvious solution to every problem) but if the solution doesn't leave everyone equally unsatisfied (the mark of a good compromise) then it won't be implemented.

Quote:
How many here think Bush is angling for a way to bomb Iran --- no matter what ?

I don't claim to know Bush's thoughts (thankfully) but I wouldn't be surprised. Of course it may be more subtle then that, piss of Iran little by little so that when the Democrats win the next presidential election the newcomer has to deal with a crisis right away perhaps.

1 2 3 4 NEXT PAGE