2006 US Midterm Election Predictions
POSTED BY: SoupCatcher
UPDATED: Thursday, November 16, 2006 02:28
VIEWED: 2996
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Well, less than a week to go. What does everyone think? What will the House and Senate look like? Any races you're watching with particular interest?
Current Congress
House: 201 Democrats, 230 Republicans and 1 Independent (3 vacant)
Senate: 44 Democrats, 55 Republicans and 1 Independent
I've been periodically checking out http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and http://www.pollster.com/ just to see what the polls are saying. I'm pessimistic when it comes to Democrats winning elections, and the GOP has a strong GOTV operation, but I actually think the Democratic Party has a chance at controlling the House.
Here's my predictions (pessimistic)
House: 220 Democrats and 215 Republicans
Senate: 47 Democrats, 51 Republicans and 2 Independents (1 w/Democrats {VT} and 1 w/Republicans {CT})
I hope I'm pleasantly surprised. I see this as a pretty important election. I feel that we need to have Congress fulfilling it's oversight role and that won't happen as long as Republicans are in charge. This is the first election where I've actually donated money to campaigns. And there are many races I'm interested in: Races where progressive Democrats have a shot (although some of these are really long shots: CA-04, CA-11, CA-25, CA-45, CO-04, CO-05, MN-02. Races where Democrats shouldn't even be competitive: ID-01, SD-AL, TX-22, WY-AL
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Quote:
Originally posted by SoupCatcher:
Well, less than a week to go. What does everyone think? What will the House and Senate look like? Any races you're watching with particular interest?
Current Congress
House: 201 Democrats, 230 Republicans and 1 Independent (3 vacant)
Senate: 44 Democrats, 55 Republicans and 1 Independent
I've been periodically checking out http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and http://www.pollster.com/ just to see what the polls are saying. I'm pessimistic when it comes to Democrats winning elections, and the GOP has a strong GOTV operation, but I actually think the Democratic Party has a chance at controlling the House.
Here's my predictions (pessimistic)
House: 220 Democrats and 215 Republicans
Senate: 47 Democrats, 51 Republicans and 2 Independents (1 w/Democrats {VT} and 1 w/Republicans {CT})
Soup:
I think your predictions are pretty close, though not sure why you put Leiberman with the Republicans. He only agrees with them on the war, otherwise he's a pretty liberal politician who has said he will caucus with the dems. I think the democrats will take the house as you predict, but I'm not prepared to say by how much. The GOP will probably keep the senate, if barely. Regardless, whatever happens, not much will change if you ask me, so don't get your hopes up for a radically different world when you wake up on wednesday.
I'm watching the VA, MD, NJ, and TN races mostly. I tend to agree about the GOP's turnout apparatus, but Dem's are motivated more today than ever. Though some said the same thing in '04, and that didn't turn out to be the case. One of my problems are the whole concept of polls in the first place. Frankly, I don't trust'em, especially when they are so close.
Thanks for the links though, even if I don't trust them it's still interesting to look at them
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"History is the version of past events that people have decided to agree upon."
---Napoleon Bonaparte
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I concur, but I'd go with 215 dems to 220 reps
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Razza,
It's hard for me to judge how motivated the Democrats are this year. Online, where I spend a lot of time reading the heavy hitters on the left side of the blogosphere, there's tremendous enthusiasm. However, where I live, there's very little enthusiasm. The big deal around here is the San Jose mayoral race (and even there, our neighborhood doesn't get to vote in that race due to the whim of incorporated and unincorporated designations). My rep is Zoe Lofgren, who will easily win. The senator up for reelection is Dianne Feinstein, who will easily win (even though I wish she would get seriously challenged from the left in a primary one of these years). I haven't seen any ads for either of those races. As far as governor, it looks like Schwarzenegger will cruise to reelection.
Gerrymandering has made most House races uncompetitive. When you add in that incumbents have all the advantages, it makes it really hard for a challenger. I do think that there is a general feeling of discontent with the GOP Congress this year, but I don't know if it's enough to overcome both of these realities in many of the second tier races. And most of my friends and family don't pay attention to a midterm election until right about now, if they're planning on voting at all.
I'm hoping for the Democrats to take control. But it's hard to separate out the enthusiasm of the left blogosphere from what's happening on the ground. I can't help but think back to the the excitement right before the release of Serenity.
As far as Lieberman, I think I'm buying the theory that he will be reelected and then resign to take a cabinet position. Then the Republican governor will appoint someone to take his place. There's just been too much support for him from the Republican party. Kind of sucks to be the Republican nominee. You win your primary and then the national party tries to sandbag you right out of the race. Sortta the same thing is happening with the Democratic nominee and the national party leadership. For the most part, I don't buy that the two parties are the same. At least on the local level. But the way both parties are trying to make sure Lieberman retains his seat sure makes it hard to continue to believe that with respect to the DC portion of each party.
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Whoa! Leiberman taking a cabinet postion? I hadn't heard that one, I can see it as a possibility though. Very interesting.
I live in VA and I've got to tell you the senatorial race here has been extremely ugly on both sides. You need neck waders to make it through the filthy mudslinging. The MD race is more interesting if you ask me. Steele is running a very positive campaign and has just picked up support from some prominent local african-american democrats. I think he's got a chance, but it's probably a longshot, MD is a pretty democratic state.
Turnout is always hard to predict. I think the current wind blows in the Dems favor though. There is a lot of disatisfaction on my side of the aisle as well as yours, and that's likely to fall your way as conservatives proclaim their disatisfaction by not voting.
One interesting trend I've noticed are all the moderate conservative candidates the Democrats rolled out this election cycle. Despite the leftist rhetoric from the blogosphere, they have smartly sought out moderates like Ford and Webb to compete in those key states. So even if they take the seats, those candidates won't be able to afford standing lockstep with a liberal agenda. That's why I don't see much changing even if they win. The majority will be a weak one regarless. I'm just looking forward to '08 and the chance to vote for a candidate I actually want to rather than the lesser of two evils.
MCCAIN 2008 BABY!
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"History is the version of past events that people have decided to agree upon."
---Napoleon Bonaparte
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Problem with McCain is he rolls over for this administration. He really wants to be President and he really thinks he needs the NeoCons.
The result is that he has been an enabler of pretty heinnous policies. His complaints have all been lip service. Even when he got Bush to sign that bill about torture, he allowed Bush to get away with exempting himself with a signing statement.
Maybe once he's elected he will actually become the man of integrity and accountability that is his platform, but I'm not taking that chance with my vote.
To be fair, even if I liked a Republican, ala lincoln Chafee, I would vote the democrat(all other things being equal) who more closely represented my ideology, over him...so its not like McCain actually lost my vote by being a Bush Toadie, just some of my respect.
He's still a war hero, and I certainly wouldn't question whether he has done anything good for our country - but in office, he's done some harm.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Righteous9:
The result is that he has been an enabler of pretty heinnous policies. His complaints have all been lip service. Even when he got Bush to sign that bill about torture, he allowed Bush to get away with exempting himself with a signing statement.
Those signing statements aren't worth the paper they are printed on if you ask me. They just give a glimpse of the administration's legal strategy should they ever be challenged in the courts.
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"History is the version of past events that people have decided to agree upon."
---Napoleon Bonaparte
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Razza, Righteous,
Both excellent points:
1. McCain '08 yeah baby
2. McCain rolls over for this administration.
The ticket will be the ticket. If it's McCain/Condi it's suspect, if it's McCain/Allen it's doomed.
It would have to be McCain/Hagel or some such thing. It would need an administration opponent as a VP. It would probably be even better if that opponent were not a moderate. Ron Paul or Lindsay Graham.
Atm, I'm afraid Mr. Dobbs is my most likely vote for '08.
For you dems, also, watch the VP. If Obama is Obama/Hillary, then you're voting for the same policy you've seen for the last 6, 8, 16 years. Obama/Feingold would not be re-electing Bush.
If Cheney has told us anything it's that the VP does matter. Oh, yeah, also, if you shoot your friend in the face from more than 15 yards he won't die and then you can't deny being there and this leads to bad photo ops where the world is reminded that you look like Fester Adams.
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The left side of the blogosphere is definitely more progressive than the Democratic party. For some areas of the country, such as Virginia and Tennessee, a liberal Democrat doesn't stand a chance of getting elected. In those areas, it makes sense to support a more moderate candidate like Ford or Webb. Or Kansas, where many former Republicans are running as Democrats. Where the progressive side of the party has a chance to make an impact is in heavily blue areas of the country. Challenging moderate Democrats from the left in primaries only makes sense if a liberal Democrat can get elected.
I'm being won over to the position that the DCCC is crap, the DSCC is not much better and the DNC has promise. Dean's 50 State Strategy was supposed to pay dividends many years down the road. But it appears that the infrastructure that the DNC has been putting in place over the past few years will pay off this year.
No matter what happens in Congress this election, Bush still has veto power. So I don't see much of a chance of rolling back some of the more egregious (at least from my point of view) legislation. A Democratic House will manifest itself in two ways: oversight and limiting the passage of more egregious legislation. Many compromise bills that were passed in the Senate during this Congress were gutted during negotiations with the House. This House has been particularly regressive (once again, from my point of view). So stopping that legislation is a good thing. But also, I'm really looking forward to having people like John Conyers in charge of committees.
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15517752/
* Scenario I: Democrats ride a wave of discontent over President Bush and Iraq, and they pick up at least 30 House seats and at least six Senate seats.
* Scenario II: Democratic momentum stalls a bit, and the party narrowly picks up the House -- but only by a three- to five-seat margin. And the party's gains in the Senate are no more than a net of three seats, keeping the GOP in control.
* Scenario III: The Republicans narrowly hold on to their majorities in both chambers.
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