The Long Emergency (please read)

POSTED BY: fredgiblet
UPDATED: Monday, August 14, 2006 22:52
VIEWED: 2748
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CITIZEN

Friday, August 11, 2006 10:30 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by antimason:
i would argue that it is an artificial scarcity issue, and that the oil industry is in collaboration, along with the international banking institutions.

the oil companies dont have the motive to explore and excavate new oil, because as it is they determine, and intentionally manipulate prices. whos to know for sure how much oil is down there; but that no matter what the oil industry will do what is in its best interest to continue record profits.

Doesn't quite fit the facts, the American Oil industry spent twice the amount of money in scouting for new Oil reserves than it found in potential profits in 2003 (I think it spent something like $8bn US and found $4bn US worth of oil). The Oil companies are merging like crazy, trying to maximise their profits? Why are Oil tankers being decommissioned faster than they are being built? Why have their been no new American Oil refineries built since the 1970's, when I might add America's domestic supply peaked, but America still needs refineries unless the Oil is running out.

If the Oil is in decline it's in the Oil companies’ best interests to let people think it's just big Oil propaganda, that way people keep going to the pump and paying while the price goes up, maximising big Oil profits while they can.

Why has British Petroleum become Beyond Petroleum and sunk so much of their assets into renewable/alternative fuel research? Simply they are preparing for the near future when they won't have any oil to trade any more.

More insane ramblings by the people who brought you beeeer milkshakes!
No one can see their reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.

BIGDAMNNOBODY

Friday, August 11, 2006 2:15 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by citizen:
Why have their been no new American Oil refineries built since the 1970's, when I might add America's domestic supply peaked, but America still needs refineries unless the Oil is running out.

It might have something to do with those pesky environmentalists.

It is a long and slightly biased article given the source, but an interesting read.

http://www.npra.org/news/testimony/20040512testimony.cfm

De-lurking to stir stuff up.

MAL4PREZ

Friday, August 11, 2006 3:27 PM

I've been working in the margins of the oil industry since 1995 (including working for the companies) and I've seen a few talks about the future of world oil production. The most interesting was given by a university guy, not an oil company employee. This guy looked at a bunch of reserve forecasts done since the 1960s, and the funny thing is... they all forcast the same future production curve. A peak in 5-10 years, then tailing off. This curve has been moving along with us for the past 40 years, folks.

That is not to say that oil won't run out. Of course it will! It is to say that any forecast is based more in psychology than reality. It's generally oil company guys telling their bosses the safest thing they can - something between "OMG the oil's running out!" and "Don't worry, we got lots." I think the truth is that nobody really knows how much oil there is.

In the meantime, these forecasts work to frighten people, allowing higher prices and the political impetus to do things like invade the Middle East. You know how Saddam had all those fancy palaces he built with his oil profits? Where do suppose that money is going now, hmm?

OK, backing off.

One of the things I worked on is geophysical methods of finding oil. The focus of this kind of research in the 90s was characterizing known reservoirs rather than looking for new ones. This was in preparation of oil running out - we wanted to find ways of producing oil that is hard to get. ie really heavy oil that needs steam injection to make it thinner, or tight rock reservoirs that need to be artificially fractured so the oil will flow to the well, or deep water reservoirs in the Gulf. Point is, there's a lot of hard-to-get oil that we can get, but it requires new technology and will be expensive.

But it won't be gotten until the industry has no other choice. The oil industry is notoriously short-sighted. (I could give examples, but this is already too long!) Right now, the companies have merged and, for the most part, completely gotten rid of their research departments. They go to service companies like Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Baker-Atlas, who are really the ones who should be developing new methods.

But they don't need to right now! These companies are making money hand over fist without having to do anything new, so that's what they're doing (um - in general. There are exceptions.) They're just grabbing and letting the future take care of itself. And since the US president is their b**ch, they can do it freely.

I do like the article, by the way. I tend to forget exactly how much of what we have is reliant on oil. But I don't see a hard crash coming. I see a slow change to even more expensive oil, and the companies have no problem with this. They'll drag it out as long as possible. But, because I'm an optimist, I hope that we'll get a new administration that will give a crap about something more than making money for their buddies, and we'll start developing alternative energy sources so the oil companies no longer rule our lives and start wars to get at more oil...

Oops, getting all ranty again. Stopping now.

-----------------------------------------------
I'm the president. I don't need to listen.

CITIZEN

Friday, August 11, 2006 3:43 PM

Well many wells have already gone over the curve, in the 1970's the US as a whole was producing 11 million barrels a day, now 5. It's consistent with the bell curve, and generally once you hit the bell curve it's down hill all the way.

You're damn right, we won't have a hard crash, we'll have a point where Oil production decreases but the Oil demand continues to increase, driving up prices, starting wars and making it impossible for most people to drive anywhere.

But we still have to develop and commercialise these alternatives, and really we should have started doing that years ago, once we pass peak oil it'll be too late.

More insane ramblings by the people who brought you beeeer milkshakes!
No one can see their reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.

FREDGIBLET

Friday, August 11, 2006 7:45 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by citizen:
What use is a net connection if all the servers and ISPs are offline?

Given the power of the internet I think it would be one of the last things to go. I think that if the oil collapse comes that the internet will become a very different place though. Prices would rise so subscription sites would become the norm, and independant sites would largely dissappear. Connections would becomes more expensive (as the cost of infrastructure rises), and people would decrease their use of recreational web browsing. But that's just a guess.

ANTIMASON

Friday, August 11, 2006 8:08 PM

Citizen- i would argue that the reason they spent doubt scouting for oil reserves is because their motive is to seize supplies, and cap them to create artificial scarcity. this would explain why prices have doubled here in the US since the Iraq war, and yet we are in control of the Iraqis oil supplies. let me recommend this sound clip again to you as an alternative to this peak oil theory
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/april2005/120405peakoilscam.htm

CITIZEN

Friday, August 11, 2006 8:19 PM

They didn't pay double to normal, they paid double to what Oil was found was worth, this is a clear indication that Oil is becoming harder to find.

More insane ramblings by the people who brought you beeeer milkshakes!
No one can see their reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.

FELLOWTRAVELER

Monday, August 14, 2006 10:52 PM

For anyone who is interested in oil and alternative energy, there is a pretty good doc on the DiscoveryTimes channel at 8 and 11 PM (Aug. 14).

It's "Addicted to Oil: Thomas L Friedman Reporting".

Friedman works for the "old grey lady" and is the author of the bestseller "The World is Flat".

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