the scary calculations involving getting Serenity to profit

POSTED BY: ethan
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 3, 2006 20:01
VIEWED: 19463
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JAYTEE

Sunday, January 1, 2006 5:39 PM

Has anyone considered the incredible growth in the fan base since a) the release of the movie and b) the DVD release. More and more people are being exposed and I'd have to say everytime 10 people watch Serenity 4 people walk out as new Browncoats that want to know more about the 'verse they were just exposed to and the other 6 drooling mindless dolts go home to watch Fear Factor or some other mindless reality schlock. This leads to more sales of the series DVD set. This trend will continue and it may lose momentum in 2006 but since Dec 20th it's been like a snowball rolling down a mountain. Starts out small, ends up really huge. It will reach the point where Universal looks at the numbers of the DVD sales and the series DVD sales and will decide, yeah, Serenity 1 wasn't a major box office smash but the sequel should actually make money at the box office based on the growth of the fanbase. How much did the first Star Trek movie make? You know! The one that sucked! "V'jer wants to know!" (Yawn) and how many Star Trek movies followed after that? Hmm, lets see. 5 more of the original series, then Generations, then two based on Star Trek TNG. So if we stay loyal and keep spreadin the word about our vainglorious ship and it's 'verse then we might just live to see several sequels and another spinoff series.

Jaytee

WHOISRIVER

Sunday, January 1, 2006 5:51 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by CBY:
Quote:
Originally posted by WhoIsRiver:
Yuhu, agreed. Still, it grossed about $1m in Germany I think, which I suspect won't be enough to cover the promotion (although hopefully I'm wrong!).

You're right. I didn't want to argue about the figures anyway, I just don't like the notion "The Germans/French are responsible"

°°°°°°°°°°°°
http://www.byond-trax.com - my selfmade ambient/lounge/chillout music

Oooh, let's just tackle this one - I don't think Germans and French people are responsible at all. It's the responsibility of the distributor (ie UIP) to provide the initial big audience through advertising. They didn't.

DVD sales are the way to speak to companies - DVD sales = money, money = more franchise material.

--gossi

YOJIMBO

Sunday, January 1, 2006 6:04 PM

I dont know where to start..
1..It is not just DVD sales #'s that count towards a movie being profitable after it is out of the theatre's..Cable networks and tv networks buy the rights to air the movie(this is big bucks sometimes more then the total gross of DVD sales)
2..The movie cost $40 million to make...They dont add cost for promoting the DVD release to the cost of the movie budget and now say "oh it now cost 55 Million to make"..All studios pay to promote DVD releases of films...
3..I also doubt that when Joss said "it all depends on DVD sales " he meant Serenity has to sell 3 times as many DVD's as any other film has ever sold..
4..The DVD is selling far beyond most peoples expectations(its on most top 10 sales lists)..
Firefly is being offered on demand on some huge cable providers(comcast,insight) 3 years after its demise..Scifi is running the Firefly series on its friday night block...
5..Not to mention your original notion of what has to happen for the movie to be profitable is maybe 5% correct..
6..I do applaud the way you found a negative in how well Serenity is selling...(I'm Kidding)

I CANT FIND ANY USEFULL INFORMATION IN THIS NEGATIVE THREAD..THE TITLE ALONE IS TROLL COUNTRY WORTHY..PLEASE PUT IT TO DEATH QUICKLY..

IT DOES HAVE SOME FUZZY MATH,HEARSAY,AND SOME BLIND SPECULATION TO BE POSITIVE

MYCROFTXXX

Sunday, January 1, 2006 6:24 PM

How Hollywood identifies what's profitable and what is not is a black art that even the IRS can't figure out. I personally think that all of the Browncoat enthusiasm and loyalty has more of an impact than any balance sheet be it real or "cooked up". If the bean counters were really into making profits they'd be in the stock market or bonds but where's the fun in that?

Personally, I think the future of Firefly/Serenity stories. be in movies or TV series, is going to turn on the whim of Joss and company and their desire to continue the legacy. You only have to look at Parmount's Star Trek franchise to see how it doesn't take profit to keep something going.

Never forget, Hollywood is not a logical place...

My $0.02 for what it's worth.

VIKING

Sunday, January 1, 2006 6:45 PM

remember universal also get money from books RPG and comics

i think the key to doing hard things is beliving anything is possibel. dont listen to what shyd happen what will happen and all oter stuff peeps tell you

just belive if many enoff off us do then we will make it. belive me i have seen faith move mountains. nothing and i mean nothing is impossibel if you belive in it.

The wages of sin are death, but the hours are good and the perks are fantastic.

SUASOR

Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:35 PM

It may be possible to estimate Serenity DVD sales. In it's first week, Serenity came in number 3 overall in DVD sales. "Four Brothers", it was announced, sold 3.7 million in its first week (which was six days, compared to five for Serenity.) From what we have heard, Serenity was sold out in a lot of major outlets. I asked around, and Serenity, apparently, was not ordered as heavily as the "mainstream" stuff like Four Brothers, but outlets were able to get fast reorders (often for four or five times as many units as the initial drop.) Dunno how many Serenity DVDs Universal manufactured the first time around, but they are definitly moving product. I estimate that Serenity has sold about two million DVDs so far, and a major limiting factor is what the inventory levels are. Then again, the first week sales tend, for the best sellers, to be about half of first year sales.

There's another element to consider: Firefly DVD sales. That, by now, has easily sold over two million copies. Fox (which, like Universal, is a Murdoch operation) has thus made over $40 million on Firefly DVD sales so far. The more Serenity they sell, the more Firefly they sell. Yeah, I know, Fox and Universal have separate balance sheets, but their profits all flow to the same pot. And I'm sure whoever is counting the pot has noticed what is happening.

CHINDI

Sunday, January 1, 2006 8:16 PM

and there is another pebble to add to the scale.. as Joss and the BDH gain higher profile in Hollywood, their interests and "pet proects" will get more interest and possibly greenlit...

I LOL at the statement above that even the IRS cannot unscramble the accounting in Hollywood...lol.. too true..

I gotta hold on the side of the optimists here.. cus in Hollywood, nobody knows nothing.. and its all been said here a million times...

Time will tell, but for me.. I still think there will be more.. just gotta hunker down for the duration..

Chindi

URSULA

Sunday, January 1, 2006 9:46 PM

Plus, a few months ago, you couldn't find Firefly on a lot of store shelves for love nor money. Now, though, everybody's carrying it, and that's going to lead to more exposure, which will lead to more browncoats, which will . . .

Well, you see where I'm goin' with this.

STORYMARK

Sunday, January 1, 2006 10:16 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by YOJIMBO:
2..The movie cost $40 million to make...They dont add cost for promoting the DVD release to the cost of the movie budget and now say "oh it now cost 55 Million to make"..All studios pay to promote DVD releases of films...

Yeah, they do. There's a lot of money involved in marketing, and it has to be accounted for. Yes, the studio pays for marketing/prints on all releases, but they do factor that into the overall cost/profit margin on the project.

Quote:
Originally posted by Suasor:
Fox (which, like Universal, is a Murdoch operation) has thus made over $40 million on Firefly DVD sales so far. The more Serenity they sell, the more Firefly they sell. Yeah, I know, Fox and Universal have separate balance sheets, but their profits all flow to the same pot. And I'm sure whoever is counting the pot has noticed what is happening.

Uh...No. Fox is owned by Rupert Murdoch's Newscorp. Universal is owned by Vevendi/Seagram Corporation. Totally different mega-massive-evil-conglomerates.

For what it's worth, my opinion is we're going to see more of the 'verse in the future, but it could take a while. The movie will eventually turn a profit, but it'll take a few years, most likely. But the love is spreadimg, and the studio is bound the realize this. They may very well see a continuation of the series as a good investment, as someone noted above. But I wouldn't be surprised if this turned out like the old Star Trek, in that it might take a number of years before the Poweres That Be realize the true viability of this 'verse.
"Well, my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle."

RUXTON

Sunday, January 1, 2006 10:21 PM

I'm gonna go out on a limb here, based on some of the insight I've got from this thread's commentators combined with my own empathetic perceptions, and PREDICT that within six months a second Serenity movie will be greenlighted. Or at the latest, whenever Wonder Woman gets some obvious and dedicated publicity.

Within six months........Serenity #2 greenlighted... = prediction.

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