Thoughts on the DVD Release and the Future

POSTED BY: SanctimoniousApe
UPDATED: Monday, December 12, 2005 00:27
VIEWED: 1720
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SANCTIMONIOUSAPE

Sunday, December 11, 2005 10:58 PM

This started out as a response to the discussions regarding the news post on the overseas extended DVD release ( http://www.fireflyfans.net/news.asp?newsid=902), but grew into such an off-topic essay of what I think that I thought I'd post it separately. (My apologies in advance for any mistakes, unfinished thoughts, etc. - I was nearly finished reviewing what I wrote when my toddler and disabled wife took priority and I decided to just fire away.)

First, let me just say that I'm pretty certain there will be a release of the extended DVD for the U.S. - it will have already been created for the foreign markets and merely require a simple conversion to NTSC, so it doesn't make sense for Universal not to do this.

(This is where I veered sharply off-topic...)

The problem is that with theater attendance having been in such a prolonged downward spiral, the studio heads really want to start releasing DVDs almost at the same time as the movie comes out in theaters (with a difference of only a few to several weeks - depending upon the movie) so as to maximize the return on the marketing dollars they spend. Each time they release something - regardless of venue - a good percentage of the cost of marketing it is simply getting people even aware of and thinking about the release (it's extremely tough to make one's offerings stand out in the absolute deluge of marketing we are all constantly subjected to). If they "ride the coattails" of the marketing costs for the theater release, they can significantly reduce the "awareness" marketing costs for the DVD (as compared to having to re-raise awareness of the DVD release up to a year or more later).

Of course many of the creative people who work so hard to make movies an experience worth seeing in the theaters are strongly opposed to this - in the end, however, I believe they'll have to relent. In the past decade or so not only has it become ridiculously expensive to have "a night at the movies" on a regular basis, but many people now have the technology right in their own homes to have their own theater-like experience at a much lower cost (and without having to deal with traffic, purchasing and tracking tickets, other rude audience members, having to be ready at a specific time set by the theater, finding good seats in a crowded theater, etc.).

I tend to think that over the next decade we're going to see a major shinkage in the number of movie theaters operating (or at the very least a major change in the way they operate). It's going to become a lot like live plays in that while there will always be a number of theaters in major cities (and here and there in the suburbs) for those that prefer such an experience, they're mostly only going to run guaranteed hits (such as the only ones that are really making money in theaters now) -- although I'm sure there will be some theaters that specialize in things like independant films and such.

There will be some differences due to the nature of the fact that it is film rather than a live performance, of course -- it won't quite be as centralized as having to go to Broadway to see the latest hit (nor should the cost of doing so get quite so high - I would dearly love to see "Spamalot," but just can't afford to).

Films will run longer in these theaters because a lot of the audience will only decide to spend the money to "see it on the big screen" after they've seen it at home and feel it'd enhance the experience (and if it's worth doing so, then it's probably good for repeat business, too). In fact, this may even be a cause for SOME movies (probably mostly smaller-budget ones) to start being released on DVD first and *then* migrating to the theater if they are successful enough - talk about a major sea-change in "the way things work!"(tm). (This may already have happened for all I know - I don't follow the industry enough to answer that.)

The bulk of the films in theaters will probably be either very special-effects & action-laden (e.g. "ID4," or a "Star Wars"-type film), or be very artsy or "grand" in nature where t

CBY

Sunday, December 11, 2005 11:40 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SanctimoniousApe:
nstead, I think (if they are as smart as I suspect/hope) they are taking advantage of the situation like so [...]

In fact we count on that. The fanbase is building up a huge momentum right now which includes spending insane amounts of money and broading the fan base.

Sure it's sad that money is the key factor in our project, but when I think about what the first-generation-browncoats achieved (I consider myself second generation) there is still hope for us. Without them there wouldn't exist a movie at all.

My point is: We are not yet Don Quijotes. At this juncture I see us more like bees stinging the elefant hoping for a reaction.

And the great demand on the DVD will leave a mark, you can't deny that. Especially since the movie practically came out of nothing (if you never heard of Firefly before).

In the end, only time will tell.

I hope I didn't miss your point entirely ;-)

ORPHEUS

Monday, December 12, 2005 12:27 AM

Also, I think there are many people out there who did, in fact, decide that they'd wait for the DVD. I don't think the studios are yet taking into account the people out there (mostly middle-aged/older folks) who don't go to the movies, but would rather wait to rent or buy it on DVD. I mean, there's no real way to know how many of those people there are out there, but they're gonna be a big part of Serenity's life on DVD.

Should Universal decide to release Serenity on UMD, those sales can only help (though I personally can't see why anyone would want to watch a movie on a PSP).

Just my two cents.
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