How to guesstimate Serenity's total profit/loss

POSTED BY: ebanzai
UPDATED: Wednesday, October 26, 2005 10:59
VIEWED: 5026
PAGE 2 of 2

PREV PAGE 1 2

EBANZAI

Tuesday, October 18, 2005 9:44 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by citizen:
I realise that, but I think the estimate of $9Mil international is understated, greatly (given that the UK release alone made over $1.6Mil in the first three days). The fact that it was number one opening weekend also bodes well.

I've done a bit more research on international box office numbers and I now agree with citizen. I've revised the $9mil up to $27.5mil.

I've also tweaked my guesstimation formula and plugged in some new numbers.

The end result gives Serenity a net loss of -$6.9mil. Still not break even, but really not so bad.

Guesstimation formula and rationale:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/ebanzai?m=90

Updated Serenity guesstimates:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/ebanzai?m=91

I'd love more feedback on this guesstimation system so please take a look if you've got the time!

GIANTEVILHEAD

Tuesday, October 18, 2005 11:08 PM

Those calculations are way too simplistic. We're dealing with a nonlinear dynamic system, you need to use the chaos theory.

"I swallowed a bug." -River Tam

SONOFDORK

Wednesday, October 26, 2005 10:59 AM

Update on UK Box Office.

It stands now at $4,190,557 (converted at today's us/uk rate). In the UK, distributors rarely take above 40%. You are talking 30-40% of the Gross.

Spain weekend box office was dissapointing (9th position) with $483,506. Although it should eventually scrape over $2 million. I'm optimistic!

France, not seen nationwide numbers (although if the Paris attendances are anything to go by it might me the same way as spain). Critically, in France it wasn't 'warmly' received.

PREV PAGE 1 2