A suit's eye view on Serenity and sequels

POSTED BY: tiredoldreaver
UPDATED: Sunday, October 30, 2005 18:03
VIEWED: 27731
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BARD

Monday, October 24, 2005 7:18 PM

Very encouraging! Nice to get solid grist for the optimsism mill . . .

I have to reiterate my heartfelt belief that Firefly has to return in TV mode, in hour-long episodic drama, for Firefly to *truly* return. The pacing of the TV show allowed the slow spaces, the meditative pauses, the gradual character development, more room for humor, etc.

Re. films - if you build it, I will come.

But the TV show is the way to go . . .

____

You can't take the sky from me (I hope, I pray).

FOLLOWMAL

Monday, October 24, 2005 8:11 PM

Sorry... can't get onboard with the "spin-off, with new cast" thing.

To me, Serenity/Firefly is our Capt. and our crew.
I think it's about THESE people, not just some other folks in the 'verse.

I want films and a tv show, I want it ALL!

FollowMal, and only Mal.

DERANGEDMILK

Monday, October 24, 2005 9:55 PM

I'm right there with you FOLLOWMAL, I read the whole new crew/new ship post and said "Thats down right unsettlin."
I also am a bit greedy, I want two or three more movies and them to go back and finish up the first season.
I've heard the reruns are doing really well on SciFi so I'm sure new episodes would get FANtastic ratings!
-e

"Storms getting worse."
"We'll pass through it soon enough."

TIREDOLDREAVER

Monday, October 24, 2005 10:16 PM

Thanks for all the comments on my original post...Actually,I thought my post may just disappear! And some very interesting views.Thanks for the views on studio and dvd margins. I would love if I could,to see the Profit and Loss statement on the Production and Marketing costs. It would, I'm sure, make interesting and productive reading, but the basic financial tenets remain, and I see we're at $30.5m with quite a lot of International to add in, plus revenue still coming in off domestic US.We're still flying, I believe the expression is.
There are however some factors additionally raised which I hadn't considered:
1.Merchandising. I'm not sure who owns the merchandising rights to Serenity. In my business, the merchandising rights are BIG numbers, and I'd completely ignored them in my previous post. I'm not sure if it works the same, but in my world, merchandising companies buy the rights to a particular licensed product, together with a fixed percentage (usually 15-20%) of the retail price.Hard to put a figure on it, but it could be significant.
2.TV rights. I don't know this market well enough, but I suspect from others comments that I may have underestimated the potential TV returns.
There is a more fundamental business point, which I believe is the core of the potential success of Serenity + sequels. Forgive me if I bore everybody to death,(I am a TiredOldReaver after all) but in this whole business sphere, there are two types of business concerning us, namely (i) a Capital Expenditure based business which the studio is, ie stump up a big pile of cash in one go,and try to get a much bigger pile of cash back straightaway, or (ii) a Revenue based business, like mine, ie take 2% of something every month for ever (hopefully!).
There are attractions to both,and risks with both, but a big balanced company would try to do both.Hence, something that is repeatable and brings in steady revenue over a long period of time, yet remains a core part of the business, is very attractive indeed.It helps cash flow and doesn't have to be that profitable as long as it's steady. If I had to guess, excepting the creative process of Joss, the studio's original big attraction would be (a) lots and lots of ongoing dvd sales, and (b) Joss' proven ability to franchise an idea and provide endless successions/spin offs.
It's all about the studio building a solid revenue stream from as many long lived projects as it can.
The more I see and read, the more optimistic I become.I really believe this is the start of something very good.(Notwithstanding the fab Jayne comment about smelling a lot of "if" coming off this post!!)

R1Z

Monday, October 24, 2005 10:37 PM

Quote:
I've no doubt whatsoever that whether or not this Firefly/Serenity franchise continues in one form or another will be a creative decision, not a financial one. In other words, I believe in the end it'll be Joss' decision.

I wish it were so, but we're talking about show BUSINESS. If the decisions were Joss's, the tv show would still be running and sequel #1 would be in editing right now. Sadly, Joss does not seem to have a spare $50M in his piggy bank right now, (nor do I, or he could have it), so it's gonna take backing from the suits.

YOu are right to the extent that this franchise cannot continue without Joss's okey-dokey. To that extent, he has veto power, but that's about it.

From Joss's post on the 'versal board:

Quote:
And what about Da Fyoocha? (And why did I need Arnold to say that?) I have no idea. It could be that this tale is told. Or it could be that down the line, dollars accumulate and some exec says, "let's spin that wheel again." Or who knows. I'm not resting my hopes on it, but it's not a concept I'll ever close the book on. In case the 30,000 reporters I told didn't get this message out, I love this crew like Nick loves Nora, like Hellboy loves Pancakes, like Bridgitte loves Bernie

Clearly, if all Joss had to do was wave his wand (or keyboard, maybe) we'd already be on the way.

To veer to another point:

I am heartened most of all by the fact that Firefly DVD sales are actually holding/rising. This means people who were dragged kicking and screaming to Serenity like our little 'verse, and plan to stay. This bodes very well for Serenity DVD sales. Doin' some math--Firefly DVD sales got Serenity financed. Serenity sales should be more than the Firefly sales, since everyone who bought Firefly will buy Serenity, plus sales to rental organizations and people who saw the film "cold", based on the poster, or tv ads or whatever. The higher Serenity DVD sales should be enough to get us a sequel. Thus are franchises born.

Parting thought: Christmas is coming, and my life will be simplified if I can just buy 38 copies of Serenity and give them to everyone on my list. No trips to the mall, no circling for a parking space at $3.00/gallon. Hee Hee.

To enjoy the flavor of life, take big bites. Moderation is for monks. --Robt. Heinlein

ABILITY6

Tuesday, October 25, 2005 3:42 AM

I agree, same cast, same show, bigger and better with a BDM thrown in every few years for grins...is THAT too much to ask?

"Yolanda?"

STAKETHELURK

Tuesday, October 25, 2005 5:53 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by TiredOldReaver:
I see we're at $30.5m with quite a lot of International to add in, plus revenue still coming in off domestic US.

Um, okay, now I’m confused. When you first mentioned the $30.5 million figure, I assumed you were discussing the combined US and international box offices to date, but now it sounds like you’re not counting the international...?

I’d like to know how you’re getting the $30.5 million figure, because the latest data shows the US total take thus far at $24 million with an estimated final US take of $26 million. So, are you actually including total world gross in that figure, or just US gross? Or am I totally misunderstanding what you said?

TALLAUSSIEBROWNCOAT

Tuesday, October 25, 2005 6:09 AM

Quote:
Hey, it can't be worse than Doom, another Universal film. That movie cost $60 million to make and only brought in $15 million the first weekend. Ouch.

It was DOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMEEEDD!

G.I.R: "Doom, doom, doom, DOOM, doom, DOOm, DOOm..."

--------------------------------------------------

[On sharing Firefly Browncoats' love with relatives, friends and anyone that's remotely curious:]

"It's very Jehovah's Witness, I'm not sure if anyone's actually going door to door, but it's not far off."

- Nathan Fillion

TIREDOLDREAVER

Tuesday, October 25, 2005 7:52 AM

Hi StakeTheLurk....Figures I'm using are as below:

US domestic to 23rd October $24.17million
UK domestic to 17th October $ 3.41million
Australia to 17th October $ 2.00million
Russia to 16th October $ 0.71mill
Portugal to 17th October $ 0.16mill

The last week's UK figures should be out some time today, and I've read that France has launched, and there are others to follow. The international figures seem to appear weekly in arrears,hence my saying effectively that there's upside in the above figures, but this is where I'd look for some longevity once the US domestic tapers off. Actually, I'd based my figures on a top of $25million US domestic so if you're right at $26mill it will be a real bonus.As I said originally, it's down to squeezing out the returns now!Every extra dollar/pound/euro/etc makes a real difference at this stage.

MINEISANEVILLAUGH

Tuesday, October 25, 2005 2:46 PM

I've been reading up on what box office means to studios. Turns out even blockbusters rarely make good profit in the theater. For example, studio spends $100m making and $50m marketing (typical marketing number, not the crappy $10 Serenity got). Then, movie grosses $250m in the theaters - sounds great. but the studio only gets back $125m - 25m less than they spent. As it happens most studios only make about 20% of their profits off theater box office. 80% is made in merchandising - that means DVD sales, movie soundtrack CD, promotional items, novelizations, rentals, sales to TV, pay-per-view.

Additionally, movies showing in little over 2,000 theaters in the widest distribution do not become box office blockbusters. While it would have been nice to blow that expectation out of the water - we continue to make $$ in the US and are doing very well abroad. We should keep it up - but in long the run it will be the post-theater $$ that will determine the eventual fate of this potential franchise. That means - the Serenity DVD is a fine gift for all holidays and special events (and, note, Universal does not get one dime from Firefly). So, while I would not discourage anyone from buying this very fine series - if you are trying to support this rebirth by purchasing for friends or others - you would want to use your $$ for the movie DVD or for any other Serenity related merchanise that catches your eye.

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