Serenity DVDs--Not the Safe Bet Everyone Thinks

POSTED BY: StakeTheLurk
UPDATED: Tuesday, November 1, 2005 04:13
VIEWED: 32591
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REGINAROADIE

Friday, October 21, 2005 9:26 PM

You're looking at DVD sales, but I think DVD RENTALS can also be a factor in determining SERENITY'S success.

Cases in point. The first AUSTIN POWERS was a small sized hit in theatres. It ended up doing phenominally well on video. That lead to the greenlighting of THE SPY WHO SHAGGED ME, which did more in it's opening weekend than the first movie's entire theatrical run. Same thing with THE BOURNE IDENTITY. Ended up being the #1 rental DVD of 2003, I think, and made way for the bigger hit of THE BOURNE SUPREMACY.

And recently, KINGDOM OF HEAVEN, which only made $47 million in it's theatrical run, is the #1 rental and seller, I think, with a 3 disc director's cut of the flick coming out soon.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
XANDER: (baby-talk) Who's a little fear demon?
C'mon, who's a lit-tle fear demon?
GILES: Don't taunt the fear demon.
XANDER: Why? Can he hurt me?
GILES: No, it's just… tacky.

ROBBS

Friday, October 21, 2005 9:55 PM

I agree with the comparisons to Bourne, etc. Chance for some momentum when it hits the rental phase, leading into possibly a second. But I'm more curious about what it would take to get it to the SciFi channel or FX or something. I know SciFi passed on it the first time around but this seems to fit well with Battlestar Galactica, SG1 & some of their other shows. Plus I think most of us would enjoy getting back to a serialized version of the show. That being said I have doubts about Universal (or whoever actually owns rights to future versions) giving up those rights to allow it to hit the small screen. Would be pretty sweet though!

You can't open the book of my life and jump in the middle. Like woman, I'm a mystery.

HANOVERFIST

Friday, October 21, 2005 10:06 PM

This is the problem I see: the movie is not that re-watchable

Now before you all jump down my throat, let me explain my viewpoint. I LOVE Firefly, and watch all of the episodes every few months or so, painful as that might be (Why only 12!).

But the probem with Serenity is that for myself it is just not a fun movie. Is it a good movie? Hell yeah! But it is not one that I would sit down to watch over, and over, and over.

Aside from the fact that as a fan it is difficult to watch two of my favorite characters die, it is just too much of a downer for it to be fun. I am reminded of what Simon said in Out of Gas: (paraphrasing) I always thought Serenity had a funerial sound to it. I come away from the movie just too depressed and bummed-out to call it enjoyable. Just because it is more of our BDHs isn't enough.

I have heard some compare this to Star Wars or in this thread Austin Powers. The big difference is that those movies are fun. They are not necessarily better (especially Austin Powers...yuck) but they are more fun. At the end of Star Wars you get to see this ragtag group of rebels deal a devastating blow to a (nearly) all-powerful galactic empire. (sound familiar?) But in Serenity, you just feel like you got your ribs kickid in...no fun. Realistic, maybe, but not fun.

That is why I fear that this movie will not have legs. Thus I really feel like Serenity was the last nail in Firefly's coffin.

REGINAROADIE

Friday, October 21, 2005 10:10 PM

I'm only mentioning AUSTIIN POWERS as a hopeful model of financial success. NOT as a parallel of quality.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
XANDER: (baby-talk) Who's a little fear demon?
C'mon, who's a lit-tle fear demon?
GILES: Don't taunt the fear demon.
XANDER: Why? Can he hurt me?
GILES: No, it's just… tacky.

STAKETHELURK

Friday, October 21, 2005 11:41 PM

The impression I’m getting from responses so far is that folks think I’m saying success* is impossible, that I’m a pessimist. That’s not exactly what I was going for. The purpose of this thread is to mobilize people, not to tell them a continuation of the ‘verse is impossible. I am optimistic about a continuation of the ‘verse, but I feel we need to be active now if we want to get it. If we just assume it’ll do well enough for us to get more and leave it at that, well, “that’s a long wait for a train don’t come.”

Quote:
Originally posted by Ronan:
I don't think you can ignore the international market. I know the film has been doing very well here in Ireland and sci fi doesn't normally do very well at all.

I’m not dismissing the international market, indeed I’m hoping it’ll contribute $20-30 million all told--since the UK box office usually makes up 10% of the international take and they've made over $3 million so far. But, I do note that the surprisingly high turnout in the UK may turn out to be a fortunate fluke (I don't have data on Ireland, just the UK). However, there’s nothing fans in the US & Canada can do about the international box office (besides urging international browncoats to do everything they can to help the film in their respective countries). What browncoats in the US & Canada can do is prep for the DVD release.

Quote:
Originally posted by ReginaRoadie:
You're looking at DVD sales, but I think DVD RENTALS can also be a factor in determining SERENITY'S success.

I’m not dismissing rentals--although they do produce less money for the studio than DVD sales (hence the emphasis on those). Worse, rentals are down this year and in response the rental shops are ordering 50% fewer copies of films that didn’t hit #1. That means less visibility and fewer rentals. What I am trying to do here is say that we can’t simply assume that Serenity will do well in rentals or sales. Most of us assumed the BDM would open at #1 with at least $15 million in the first three days ( http://fireflyfans.net/pollresults.asp?pid=21). We were wrong then. I don’t want us to be wrong now. I want us to do everything we can to make sure that DVD sales and rentals do meet our expectations. We need to be proactive about this, and we can take action now.

Quote:
Originally posted by Hjermsted:
Firefly DVD sales have been steady, even 3 years after the show aired and two years after they came out. Guess what folks? Time to do the same thing for Serenity….Should the Firefly DVD set and the Serenity DVD keep selling at the even clip (established by Firefly) over the course of the next two years, who knows what Universal or Fox might do with the franchise?

The problem is, movie DVDs are different from TV DVDs. Movie sales are down by 25% this year, a larger trend that could hurt us in the stores just like the general drop off of theater attendance hurt us at the box office. TV DVDs are measured on a different scale of success from movie DVDs--because TV DVDs are more expensive. If 20th Century Fox sells 500,000 “Firefly” DVDs, they will make $20 million. If Universal sells 500,000 Serenity DVDs, they will make $10 million. So, if we sell Serenity DVDs in the same numbers as “Firefly,” we will not make enough money to get any continuation.

If we all just smile, go about our business for the next few months, and then buy two copies of the DVDs when they come out, we will fail. If the Serenity DVD does just as well as the “Firefly” DVDs, we will fail. I don’t want us to fail, but the past has shown that when we get complacent and assume success, we get a horrible surprise. On the other hand, when we mobilize we can do the impossible. Let’s be mighty again, and do everything we can in the US & Canada to make sure the BDM is picked up by as many people as possible on DVD (be it rentals or sales). There is a huge mass of people out there who’ve never even heard of Serenity or “Firefly.” We can’t assume those folks will magically decide to buy or r

SIMONWHO

Friday, October 21, 2005 11:52 PM

I agree with the points above that Serenity will permeate the Firefly universe into the mainstream. It may not even be until it has been aired on network television that enough people will be properly 'aware' of the verse to want a sequel.

PHOEBE

Saturday, October 22, 2005 12:01 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by HanoverFist:
This is the problem I see: the movie is not that re-watchable

Now before you all jump down my throat, let me explain my viewpoint. I LOVE Firefly, and watch all of the episodes every few months or so, painful as that might be (Why only 12!).

But the probem with Serenity is that for myself it is just not a fun movie. Is it a good movie? Hell yeah! But it is not one that I would sit down to watch over, and over, and over.

Aside from the fact that as a fan it is difficult to watch two of my favorite characters die, it is just too much of a downer for it to be fun. I am reminded of what Simon said in Out of Gas: (paraphrasing) I always thought Serenity had a funerial sound to it. I come away from the movie just too depressed and bummed-out to call it enjoyable. Just because it is more of our BDHs isn't enough.

I have heard some compare this to Star Wars or in this thread Austin Powers. The big difference is that those movies are fun. They are not necessarily better (especially Austin Powers...yuck) but they are more fun. At the end of Star Wars you get to see this ragtag group of rebels deal a devastating blow to a (nearly) all-powerful galactic empire. (sound familiar?) But in Serenity, you just feel like you got your ribs kickid in...no fun. Realistic, maybe, but not fun.

That is why I fear that this movie will not have legs. Thus I really feel like Serenity was the last nail in Firefly's coffin.

Just felt the need to point out that - I disagree. I think Serenity is the most re-watchable film I've ever seen. Personally I've seen it at least 15 times (obsessive? Sure, but I'm happy that way) and I know many UK browncoats who've been going to see it every day or every couple of days. And it never gets old. In fact, depending on the atmosphere and your mood it can be even more moving the 15th time around than the first. Certainly I had tears in my eyes more than once the last time I saw it. And I'm glad that I did. I'm glad that it made me sad, even after seeing it 15 times. That's true genius.

JOEMO

Saturday, October 22, 2005 12:12 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by HanoverFist:

I have heard some compare this to Star Wars or in this thread Austin Powers. The big difference is that those movies are fun. They are not necessarily better (especially Austin Powers...yuck) but they are more fun. At the end of Star Wars you get to see this ragtag group of rebels deal a devastating blow to a (nearly) all-powerful galactic empire. (sound familiar?) But in Serenity, you just feel like you got your ribs kickid in...no fun. Realistic, maybe, but not fun.

I think your wrong. I think for any one of us that really knew these characters, yes it was a K. O. so see two characters die as they did. But to a new commer it does not affect them the same. I think we will see a boost in Firefly dvd sales and Serenity sales will be good.

I don't know if this will be enough for a second movie. But here is something to think about. I think we all agree that any second movie will be a long time comming. To dump on top of that, two three years down the road will Joss be able to wrangle up the crew again? They will not just sit on their thumbs and wait. Alan Tudyk is already becoming a star on Broadway.... The only chance now may be to go back to t.v.

TINFOIL

Saturday, October 22, 2005 12:36 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by joemo:

I think we all agree that any second movie will be a long time comming. To dump on top of that, two three years down the road will Joss be able to wrangle up the crew again? They will not just sit on their thumbs and wait. Alan Tudyk is already becoming a star on Broadway.... The only chance now may be to go back to t.v.

And here is where my greatest concern comes in. What happens if the crew or even Joss doesn't want to make another one? If the movie would have made 100+ million dollars, it would have been a LOT more likely that everyone would have been on-board because of the money involved. A labor of love doesn't pay the tax man, if you know what I'm saying (unless you're a companion, but let's not get side tracked). I mean, I'm going to spread Firefly/Serenity around to everyone I can, but it's not in the hopes of getting another movie/show... And it shouldn't be for that, ever. Spread it around because you want other people to experience the incredible fun of this show.

As cold as it might sound, I'm to the point where Firefly is dead outside of its fan base. I plan on buying five copies of the movie for Christmas (Best friend, other best friend, co-worker, brother, and myself), but I'm buying them for the right reasons. I want everyone to enjoy the show because it's good. I'm happy to have this wonderful setting for Fan Fiction/Films/Music. That's far more then I have for my Futurama love.

Long story short, let's enjoy what we have. We've done the impossible by getting a failed TV show to the big screen and that makes us mighty... Now we should spread the joy and STAY FANS not for the greedy reasons of getting more shows, but for the right reasons of sharing our passion.

SHINY

Saturday, October 22, 2005 2:02 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by HanoverFist:
This is the problem I see: the movie is not that re-watchable.

:: wonders how he's managed to see a not-very-re-watchable film twelve times already ::

---

Serenity is coming. 9/30/05.

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