Serenity DVDs--Not the Safe Bet Everyone Thinks
POSTED BY: StakeTheLurk
UPDATED: Tuesday, November 1, 2005 04:13
VIEWED: 32591
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So, today Serenity drops to 871 theaters in the US and Canada. That leaves it out of reach of many Browncoats and most sizable audiences. Those who can should still go see the film; it’s holding strong in some local markets, especially the Pacific Northwest. Every penny helps and the longer we can keep it in at least some theaters, the more pennies come in. But despite that, the domestic box office is pretty much over. Things could still do well internationally--or the UK thing (yay UK Browncoats!) could turn out to be just a fluke. I’ll stress that our BDM hasn’t bombed, per se, but we’re not where we want to be when it comes to continuing the ‘verse.
(To correct a misconception I keep seeing, the decision on whether to continue the ‘verse (via sequels, series, etc) is not ultimately up to Joss. It is up to Universal. Joss can want to continue to the story, but he can’t do it without funding. Sure, he was able to push through Serenity with help from the Browncoats, but Uni’s decision to pay for the film was ultimately a financial one--which so far hasn’t panned out. Joss can be as persistent and persuasive as possible, but if the bean counters don’t think it will add up, nothing will happen.)
One mantra that’s helped us through this is of course, “This thing will kill on DVD.” It seems to make sense; after all, “Firefly” has been doing unbelievably well on DVD. But there are several major obstacles to DVD success I don’t think everyone is aware of.
Studios tend to be very tight-lipped about the sales of ancillary products (no doubt in an attempt to hide the amount of cash they’re raking in), and that makes it difficult for us to examine the numbers. Thus, no one really knows how many “Firefly” DVDs have been sold to this date. One figure that was tossed around before the movie came out was 500,000 sets sold. So let’s go with that. It has been mentioned as a very good figure--very good for TV. The box set sells for (rough average) $40 bucks. So, 500k sold = $20 million. But movie DVDs cost much less, usually around $20 when they first hit stores. So if every browncoat who bought a set of “Firefly” goes out and gets Serenity on DVD, that amounts to a grand total of $10 million. And $10 million in DVDs does not a sequel make. My utterly uninformed guess says we need to at least hit $20 million before we’ll even pique the studio’s interest, and $30-40 million before we’ll come close to that $80 million goal.
That means Serenity must outsell “Firefly.” By a factor of 3. Minimum.
And that, fellow browncoats, is a huge amount of DVDs. 1.5 million, minimum (2 million would be much better). If every browncoat in the US & Canada bought three copies of the DVD, we’d be okay--but they won’t. A few might be unaware of the plight we’re in. Of those who do know, some won’t be able to afford it. Others won’t do it on principle. And others were disappointed by the film and won’t bother to buy it at all when it comes out. Which leaves the rest of us. And while I’m sure we’ll do what we can to help the BDM, it may well not be enough.
I write this not to demoralize people, but rather to motivate them. We’ve got a window of several months between now and when the DVDs hit shelves. We must take advantage of this period to ensure strong DVD sales. Here’s some ideas I’ve had about how we can do that.
--Get more people to watch Serenity. Although it’s slipping out of theaters quickly, we need to make sure as many people as possible go to see it now. Not only will their money help the box office, but many (if not most) of them will then happily buy the DVD when it comes out.
--Convert like never before. We all know the fans will buy this DVD, so the easiest way to get big sales is to get more fans. If the BDM is no longer playing in a theater near you, “Firefly” is the best way to get ‘em hooked. Show the series to as many people as you can and encourage your fledgling browncoats to do the same with their circl
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Have you factored in the rental idea?
Most rental houses, Blockbuster and Hollywood Video the largest, don't carry too many random television series, and I know the ones around here didn't carry Firefly.
But they WILL carry Serenity.
This will also get people to have a new viewing and or buy it. Also the money from the rental houses having it will contribute. Not sure how those work, necessarily, but it will be a boost comparitively to the Firefly DVDs.
This most likely won't be a saving grace, but it is a bonus to add on.
And how does Pay Per View work into these factors?
Then you have to consider how many people would have found Firefly just by rental. And consider that a movie will more likely always sell more than a television series. Due to both cost, and you have to consider that there will be people who enjoy Serenity who know nothing of the television show.
I still hope to do as much as possible. I'm still trying my best to get the word spread, and contributing numbers.
But I'm not too worried. It may not be guarenteed any time in the very near future, but I feel we'll get the continuation eventually.
Just need to be patient.
Corbitt
Just that gorram shiny
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Quote:Rentals may help us, yes, but...
Have you factored in the rental idea?
Movie sales and movie rentals are down this year by 25-30% (don't have specifics with me at the moment), while TV sales are up (not sure about rentals). Rental stores also tend to get lots of copies of top-grossing films, but only a few copies of other films--which means fewer people will even have the opportunity to even rent it. And of course, the studio gets a much smaller cut of rentals than it does from DVD sales, so I'm focusing on those.
Quote:That what I hope people are doing. Because, we can't simply assume that DVD sales are going to be big. We have to make it so, and we've got only a limited amount of time to prepare. I'm no expert, but every expert I've heard has felt that getting the level of DVD sales (and rentals, etc…) necessary for a sequel is going to be very difficult. I just want everyone to follow your example and not just take DVD success for granted.
I still hope to do as much as possible. I'm still trying my best to get the word spread, and contributing numbers.
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Here are some factors to consider re: a Serenity sequel:
* A sequel won't happen any time soon (even if Universal were to greenlight it today). Joss has two motion pictures to write and direct... Wonder Woman and Goners. A Serenity sequel probably couldn't even go into production for another three years.
* The Firefly DVD set has been on the market for almost two years now. It will have been on the market for five years (Serenity for three years) by the time Joss could start working on a sequel.
Should the Firefly DVD set and the Serenity DVD keep selling at the even clip (established by Firefly) over the course of the next two years, who knows what Universal or Fox might do with the franchise?
Cash cows are not born over night!
If Wonder Woman pulls impressive box office numbers, Joss could be very much in demand. He may even find himself in a position to play hardball ("Sure, I'll do a movie for you, but first.." Serenity sequel, etc.)
If Goners scores for Universal, perhaps Joss won't even need to play hardball to convince them to do a Serenity sequel.
mattro
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I don't think you can ignore the international market. I know the film has been doing very well here in Ireland and sci fi doesn't normally do very well at all. You've also got countries like Australia with a big population and a good possibility of fans.
There's also the merchandising - what there is; and there really could be more. I can't get the Serenity novelisation at the moment because Amazon in the UK have run out so I have to wait for another couple of weeks before it will get to me. Is that not a good sign?
I'm staying positive and with such a fanbase we are looking at a classic Trek situation of die-hard fans who will put themselves out there for the cause. Plus we have the internet at our disposal - little old me here in little old Ireland can make my point to the big boys in the US of A.
Positive thoughts...positive thoughts...
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The population of Australia in a land mass bigger
than Western Europe is only the size of The
Netherlands a tiny land-mass country.
Canada has a land-mass twice the size of the USA
with a population only half that of the UK and a
mere 1/10th of the population of the USA.
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The fight for the US box office is over. We lost. If Serenity is still playing near you, do what you've done for the past 3 weeks, so it again. Bring friends. But the fact of the matter is, Serenity was just a blip on the US BO screens. We can play the blame game in the next 3 years before the sequel comes out, but there's still work to be done.
If you're in an international market, go see Serenity. Many times. With many friends. This is pretty standard at this point. The goal at this point it to get total gross above the base production costs ($39 mil). This way, secondary sales start to chip right into advertising expenses, and then profit.
Don't expect Universal to greenlight a sequel right away. Joss has other projects (Wonder Woman, Goners), and those are going to get done before Serenity 2 would anyways. This gives us an opportunity.
Firefly DVD sales have been steady, even 3 years after the show aired and two years after they came out. Guess what folks? Time to do the same thing for Serenity. It having a much nicer price than the $40 Firefly set should help you get some of your cheaper friends to pick it up. Keep at it. Even if a sequel isn't announced, cause, you know, the movie's just that good.
And have heart. I get a feeling Universal likes Joss. The fact he delivered Serenity ON TIME and ON BUDGET is huge! And they did greenlight Goners. Fight's not over (It never is).
"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com
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I just want to see more of the verse, but at the same time I can't wait until Im able to buy the DVD of "Serenity". I will be dancing like this guy ( www.ditty-o.com) when I return from the store with it. 
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I'll be buying a dozen copies of Serenity, at least. Remember, it's coming out right before Christmas - which means no surprizes for anyone that recieves gifts from I.
-Steve
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