The Crucial Third Weekend

POSTED BY: StakeTheLurk
UPDATED: Saturday, October 15, 2005 20:18
VIEWED: 17076
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CHRISTHECYNIC

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 6:15 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by BrownCoat1:
Of course I should mention that I have been going every single day during the weekend since it opened so it is not a stretch for me to do it again this weekend.

Maybe you should go twice in one day. This isn't a, "Let's make money suggestion," it’s just that I did it on opening night and I think it really helped me to appreciate the movie to see it a second time with it so fresh in my mind.

That was through no fault of my own by the way, I was invited by friends to go for one showing and by family to go for the very next one. How could I turn down either offer?

UNICORN

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 8:31 PM

JYA wrote, "What age is appropriate?"

I have told people that I think Serenity might be scary for kids under 10 or 11; it's what I would want somebody to tell me, because I think some of the scenes with Reavers and the like are a bit intense for younger kids. I'm not worried about any content except for violence and scary gore; Mine is a response to possible nightmare-inducing material, nothing more.

My mom went to it with us on opening night; she's been a fan since the beginning. And I love that your daughter likes it-- that makes my sappy old heart sing!

There is no such thing as a weed.

HOGWAFFLE

Wednesday, October 12, 2005 4:34 PM

I think its age appropriatness depends on the kid. Knowing your child is very important for all that. I think most 11 year olds this day and age can definetly handle it.

As for helping it make money I have only been able to see it 3 times myself (always with at least 1 other person) but I have bought 5 extra tickets overall. 2 the first day, 1 the next time, and 2 extra last saturday. So I mean it may be cheating but if you can spare the money do it!

I also sent out an email to friends and family straight up asking them to see it this weekend for me to help there be a sequal, so now my hairdresser and 2 of her friends are going and so are my aunt and uncle. And I am going with 3 friends friday or saturday, and my brother on sunday. So yeah =)

MATWANG

Wednesday, October 12, 2005 4:51 PM

In prep for our critical third weekend, I think it would be so great if some celebrity fans would make a statement that

1) I AM A FIREFLY FAN!! (to "come out" about it)
and
2) To say publicly, "Come on people -- get out and see this movie -- ITS' IMPORTANT!!!"

Of course, I don't have any celebrity friends per se, although I do have several infamous ones.

The movie is a great one for young women to see -- it's so kewl to see women -- a good half of the crew -- protrayed in tough, smart, and challenging roles.

Anybody know Oprah?

Give her a ring!!!

I'll be seeing the flick again -- for the 3rd time -- this weekend, and of course, I'll be dragging more friends with me. Truth is, they all want to go, so no actual dragging's required!

SERENITY FLIES AGAIN!!!! WHOO-WOO!!!

Thanks ya'll,

MaTwang

ROBBIE

Wednesday, October 12, 2005 4:57 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SoupCatcher:
Serenity is doing well in certain locations (if the theater reports over at the UB can be trusted). Far above the average theater take listed on boxofficemojo. So there have to be some theaters out there where it's doing really poorly. The two week contracts are up this Thursday and that's when we'll know how many theaters decided whether or not to keep the movie. It makes more sense to me to support theaters where Serenity is already doing well, by buying tickets and taking others and recommending the movie over the next three or so days, so the owners have an incentive to keep the movie. A blanket attack would be less effective, in my opinion, than steady business. All of us who can have already been going regularly but it might be time to be more tactical with our dollars. Unfortunately, we should probably just write off theaters where it's doing poorly.

This is a slow burn. I do think the word is getting out there, just very slowly. Not many people saw this movie opening weekend, relatively speaking, so we're starting from a small base and trying to build up. It just needs to be in enough theaters long enough for that word of mouth to build.

* editted to add: It's too bad we don't have access to all the numbers (number of tickets sold at each theater, average size of audience, how that compares to other movies currently out there, etc.) so that we could determine which theaters have a likelihood of keeping the movie and spending our money there. If the movie has played to pretty empty theaters, a one day spike probably won't make an impact on the decision to keep or not keep the movie.

As many others have said in many ways, we are buying a sequel by attending Serenity as many times as it takes, and we can only attend the movie if it's in theaters that are near us.

Here's my thought.Every fan of the movie needs to hang tough and see the movie twice a weekend for about five more weeks (I realize this is a long hold). Here's my math. I'm guesstimating their are 350,000 Browncoat level fans in the U.S. If each of those goes to the movie twice a weekend for the next five weeks, with an average ticket price of $7, the movie's take is comfortably north of $40 million domestically. This would get the attention of TPTB in Hollywood, and surprise the hell out of an analyst at chud.com.

I,too, am seriously worried about theaters dropping the movie. No worse nightmare than not being able to see Serenity again to help the numbers. I would have to say, however, that no theater should be given up on. I am going to the local multiplex for the second time this weekend, taking some friends along. If this theater drops the movie, it will be almost impossible for me to see Serenity before the release of the DVD.

That being said, the concept of the crucial third weekend for Serenity cannot be emphasized enough, but the "slow burn" concept is even more important. I guarantee the Serenity community is going to have to fight like hell to get past the scifi/action films being released in weekend four. But I think there's a lot of fight left in this crew.

Keep it flying.

REXPOP

Wednesday, October 12, 2005 6:01 PM

I think yesterday and todays numbers will give us an idea whether the movie has legs beyond this week. If they are comparible to last week, then we are in good shape. Otherwise...

The next big hurdle is the release of 'Doom' on the 21st. Many of the smaller theatres might swap 'Serenity' out for 'Doom', so we need to make sure that it stays on as many screens as possible.

Beyond that if we can keep pulling in around 100-200K per day, and keep it in the theatres until thanksgiving then we should be in good shape. Look at the 'Constant Gardener'. It's still around after two months and still pulling in decent numbers despite playing on a small number of theatres.

If all this happens then we should end up with a domestic box office in the 30-40 million range. Which will be better than a lot of people predicted, and put us in very good shape for the DVD release.

SOUPCATCHER

Wednesday, October 12, 2005 6:41 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Robbie:
I,too, am seriously worried about theaters dropping the movie. No worse nightmare than not being able to see Serenity again to help the numbers. I would have to say, however, that no theater should be given up on. I am going to the local multiplex for the second time this weekend, taking some friends along. If this theater drops the movie, it will be almost impossible for me to see Serenity before the release of the DVD.

I agree that not giving up on a theater where Serenity may be drawing poorly is important if the movie is not playing anywhere else nearby. I should've been more specific and targetted my statements to markets where the movie is showing in a number of theaters. For example, within 40 miles of where I live the movie is playing in 33 theaters with close to 190 screenings per day. The movie is doing decently in some locations and not so well in others. My guess (and I have nothing but anecdotal evidence to back this up) is that the average take for those 33 theaters would not be high enough to convince a theater owner to keep the movie on for a third week. But if we could shift business from the 5 theaters where Serenity is doing the poorest to 5 theaters where the business is modest, but not great, it might mean the difference between 16 theaters showing the movie this weekend versus 21 theaters. Of course, most of this is speculative. I'm just trying to figure out a way for my money to have the most impact on the goal of keeping Serenity in movie theaters long enough to absolutely exhaust word of mouth.

MAXGREMLIN

Thursday, October 13, 2005 2:02 AM

Plan on seeing Serenity for the 3rd time this weekend. My wife and I have seen it twice and this weekend Im bring a friend and my 60 year old mother who is a total browncoat now since I showed her Firefly.

I think its intersting to point out that, and I think someone else on another thread pointed this out, that Amazon.com has Firefly listed as their number 2 bestselling DVD for television, and number 5 overall.

That's not browncoats buying those DVD's. Those are newbies who probably converted after seeing the film. Our fanbase is growing as we speak. The slowburn is working. I'm sure that we will hit at least 30 million domestically and the DVD is going to be a real blow out. Gotta remember that people generally are not going to the movies that much, espcially this time of year. We are out of the summer movie season and just before the holiday season starts. Besides, enjoying a movie in the comfort of your own home, given the level of home theater technology, is prefereable that spending money on gas, tickets, overpriced popcorn, and in some cases a babysitter when it will be out on DVD in just a few months.

And to all the naysayers who think this ship is "out of gas" I'd like to mention a few names:
Austin Powers, Highlander, A Christmas Story, Buffy the Vampire Slayer (movie), The Rocky Horror Picture Show, Office Space, The Shawshank Redemption.

None of these films did great box office on their intial run. (Shawshank got an Academy nomination for best picture for God's sake!)
Yet eventually these movies (or at least the concept) found an audience and made alot of money by other means. Some turned into franchises of their own. And as I said before, our fanbase is only growing more and more. This fight is far from over.

HOGWAFFLE

Thursday, October 13, 2005 2:25 AM

One of the two theaters within a half hour of me is dropping the movie come friday =( if you look up your town on hollywood.com u can check the showtimes for friday to see if its still at your theater.

I am moving to just outside DC though so that should give me a better ability to help out for at least a couple more weeks.

Also firefly is sold out at all the walmarts, targets, and best buys near me. I think if we can hold our number 8 we'll be okay.

HOGWAFFLE

Thursday, October 13, 2005 2:26 AM

One of the two theaters within a half hour of me is dropping the movie come friday =( if you look up your town on hollywood.com u can check the showtimes for friday to see if its still at your theater.

I am moving to just outside DC though so that should give me a better ability to help out for at least a couple more weeks.

Also firefly is sold out at all the walmarts, targets, and best buys near me. I think if we can hold our number 8 we'll be okay.

So also we moved up to spot 7 on tuesday so yey! Also doom is rated R so some theaters might not want to ditch a PG-13 for it.

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