The Crucial Third Weekend

POSTED BY: StakeTheLurk
UPDATED: Saturday, October 15, 2005 20:18
VIEWED: 17076
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STAKETHELURK

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 2:32 AM

Well, the second weekend was very important and did better than expected ($5.35 million instead of $4.8, 47% drop off instead of 51%), but it wasn’t spectacular enough to make everything right. So now we’ve got the third weekend to worry about . Here’s what gossi, a poster on Whedonesque who has contacts with UIP (the international distributor) has to say on the subject:

Quote:
Originally posted by gossi on Whedonesque:

I've just spoken to somebody about these results..

They are actually much better than I thought. It's still one hell of a drop, but it's not nearly as bad as it could (or should) have been.

The opening week was down a lot in terms of expectations. Fan numbers were overestimated, and it didn't instantly find a non-fan audience. However, these figures suggest non-fans turned up.

It now comes down to the 3rd week. It *will* drop 3rd week - the question is, how much. Theatres will start to drop it soon, but if the drop off isn't much next week, it might be kept a bit.

Basically, short version: It's still not done great, but overall the month is still coming in at a decent rate now. No sequels will be announced with these results, but the money is still coming, and that is a good good news. If more international locations open at number 1, it ain't over yet.

Gossi later mentions that if we weren’t expecting a sequel, these numbers would be very promising. So our film is doing okay, but we’re still on the bubble when it comes to sequels. Much of that will be decided later, with the DVD release, but we need to do what we can NOW. The more the film makes in theaters, the less the DVDs have to make up and the better it looks for sequels.

So, we need to keep doing what we can. We’ve been sacrificing a lot of cash lately, but those who can still afford it should get back to theaters come the weekend. EVERYONE should continue to spread the word as best they can, maybe post more guerrilla marketing if you can. We need to draw this out as long as we can before the DVD release so the BDM can reach the most people and rake in the most cash NOW. Let’s keep flying browncoats, and beat expectations NEXT weekend, too!

CHRISTHECYNIC

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 3:35 AM

Now might be a semi-good time to bring up the "moonbrained" idea that I currently refer to as, "Total but charming insanity" (no offence to anyone is intended.)

The idea is for everyone to go this coming Saturday, that is to say every Browncoat we can get a hold of, every friend we can convince to go again or for the first time, any fan of the movie that doesn’t fit into those categories you might know, and anyone else. In one glorious day we all show up and see if we can make a spike in the numbers.

I think it’s doomed to fail, but that’s just me. Still if you could sell out every showing for a full day at a theater I think that theater would be less likely to drop it. I think I’ll try to be one of the insane, though I have serious doubts as to whether anyone else will.

The problems I see with this are many but they basically revolve around two things.

The first is that it might seriously backfire, if we do make a spike then people will ask why and come across the fact that it was supposed to be a show of force. Then they might say that the spike was small enough that since it was best we could do the movie won’t be worth keeping.

The second is that it seems to me that if you get everyone to go on Saturday Friday and Sunday will end up with very bad numbers.

-

Like I said, I have no hope for this plan at all, but I’m going to go again, not during the week, and Saturday is as good a day as any.

STAKETHELURK

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 3:40 AM

Quote:
The idea is for everyone to go this coming Saturday, that is to say every Browncoat we can get a hold of, every friend we can convince to go again or for the first time, any fan of the movie that doesn’t fit into those categories you might know, and anyone else. In one glorious day we all show up and see if we can make a spike in the numbers.

I'll be there. The plan is nice, though I worry that many browncoats will be tapped out by this weekend. Still, I hope as many as can will go through with it (and bring fiends). Also, just keep spreading the word. Several of the people I encouraged to see the film haven't gone yet for one reason or another--no worries as long as they go this weekend!

Point of interest, though, Saturday is traditionally the biggest day for business (because it is the most convenient).

UNICORN

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 4:11 AM

I've seen it 4 times already, and my husband has seen it 3. I was wondering... How do they count numbers from during the week? Serenity has to be doing better than the average film during the week, because I know Browncoats seeing it whenever they can.

We have good friends who were sick this past weekend but who are going to try and go soon; they saw the first 9 minutes and can't wait. I also have a cousin we're going to try and get to the BDM. I've been thinking of heading to the theaters and talking to every appropriately-aged person I see about the movie. Recruitment is *really* not my style, but if that's what it's gonna take...

We've just gotta be the boots on the ground, people. If you have an email address you haven't sent the address of the first nine minutes to, send it, and tell them if they won't like it to at least pass it on to any people they might know who are sci-fi buffs. If you can afford it, buy tix for people in line if they'll go, with or without the caveat that they come back and see it again with a friend if they enjoy it. Or bring big bags of fun-size bars and offer them to anybody seeing Serenity. (Can you tell how desperate I am?)

The point is, we love our captian, our crew, and our home Serenity. There's no other place we can be or go until we've done all we can to make a sequel happen. We've got smallish but tireless numbers, and better yet, we've got one heck of a film here. It's not like people are going to regret seeing this movie. I have made a weirdo effort to talk to people at the theaters, and the newbies have across the board been impressed with the movie, and the ones that didn't know about the show were genuinely interested when we mentioned it.

So. We will fight from the box offices and the darkened theaters and the hallways outside them. We will fight from in front of the mall marquees and outside of the multiplexes. We will fight with our voices and our wallets and our email accounts; by our very wits and determination, we can win-- we will win, because we have done the impossible already, and *that* makes us mighty.

There were those that said this movie'd never get made, that said there wasn't a big enough market for Firefly, that dismissed us as a tiny knot of crazy fans for loving our show, our 'Verse. Where are those people today? Does anybody know, or care? We're still flying, and we're in this together, for the long haul. And if our heroes have to ask a bit more of us to keep them in the sky, well who among us won't do everything we can?

Keep flying, keep talking, keep seeing the movie and spreading the word! And no, I don't sound this insane when I talk to people elsewhere. I figure you guys won't mind so much.

There is no such thing as a weed.

Serenity is here. 9/30/05

CHRISTHECYNIC

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 4:19 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by StakeTheLurk:
Also, just keep spreading the word.

That's all I am really doing at the moment, I'm already tapped out. I just don't have much available money.

Also, regardless of what we can do on our own it is really others that will make the difference. The important part is to bring in new people

Quote:
Point of interest, though, Saturday is traditionally the biggest day for business (because it is the most convenient).

I think that might be the point, though if it were my idea I would say do it on Sunday, because it is still on the weekend but traditionally the low day.

It could be arbitrary, or it could be to really try to fill out theaters. Big spike sounds nice but sold out sounds better. Personally I’d like it if it always stayed just a hair below sold out, so that no new viewer go turned away. On the other hand if by some miracle places are sold out you won’t hear me complain.

My computer’s acting funny so I can’t locate the thread where the idea was suggested, I’ll look it up later.

ROCKETJOCK

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 4:34 AM

Sadly, I'm committed to working a renaissance fair in Folsum, CA this weekend. My fifth viewing will have to wait. Doing my damndest to convince at least one friend and one more co-worker to see it in a timely manner. And as many renfair folk as I can.

(Think about it. Cowboys in space? No problem! These people are used to mixing eras recreationally.)

"She's tore up plenty. But she'll fly true." -- Zoë Washburn

SPACEMANSPIFF

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 4:56 AM

As Mal says in The Train Job, "This is why we lost the war...it's a matter of numbers." Or something like that.

Now, I'm not saying we've lost, but I think our (the Browncoats) being very loud and very vehement about getting a movie was a double-edged sword. Yes, we got our movie, but the people at Universal and anybody else interested in the money-making potential of the film had their expectations of the box office numbers set higher because of it.

I've only been twice, but that is a matter of work and when payday gets here. I'm going again this weekend, and had planned on going once a week for as long as it was in the theaters. But, if 3rd weekend is a do-or-die weekend, I might have to revisit the plan.

I wish we could get the series back...

Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!

EMBERS

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 5:07 AM

well the real question is: will be it in the theaters next Saturday?
Did we do well enough so that theater owners will hold it over beyond the 2 weeks in their contract,
or will they replace it with whatever is coming out on Friday?
If people can get out during the week to see the movie then that might tip the scales....
if people call their local theater and ask if it will still be showing, that might help....

I hope that being in the #8 spot will keep 'Serenity' in the larger multiplex theaters,
but I worry it'll be disappearing from a lot of places next weekend
(not to be all DebbieDowner, but it is my concern)

EMBERS

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 5:10 AM

bugger...the site said my post was lost and in fact I end up with a double post...
grrr argh

STENTOR

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 5:28 AM

I think it's important to be optimistic about the current situation. I've taken four non-fans to see the movie, and everyone agreed it was wonderful.

It seems to me that the studio would have expected a fairly slow start. The size of the existing fan base from Firefly is still pretty small in terms of big movie numbers. It seems unlikely they would have planned to cash in from the start, but rather that they could take a relatively successful and popular show and grow it.

Think how the popularity of firefly exploded from half a series being shown at irregular times, out of sequence, in the backwaters of the schedule. Serenity offers that exposure to the whole world, and we should be patient. To the average Joe movie goer, this probably looks like some quirky low budget sci fi, based on a TV series. 'Some fanboy, Babylon 5 extended TV movie type cr*p'.

But as it grows, as the new fans start talking, as the foreign markets kick in and those DVDs start selling, i reckon those sudio boys will realise there's plenty of life in this old dog.

"Dear Budda, please bring me a pony, a plastic rocket..."

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