Article on Serenity from The-Numbers.com (no spoilers)
POSTED BY: JR
UPDATED: Sunday, October 9, 2005 01:11
VIEWED: 11721
PAGE 3 of 3
Speaking of not failing, the Firefly DVD jumped up to 18th on this week's chart, (which I'm writing about right now). If Universal got any of that money they'd be ordering a sequel right now.
On the other hand, this bodes very well for the film's chances on the home market, and Universal does get a piece of that.
C.S.Strowbridge
News Editor / Movie Reviewer / Talentless Hack
http://members.shaw.ca/csstrowbridge/MainPage.htm
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Quote:
Originally posted by Cranston:
April 29: Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy,
Wait, Hitchhiker's was a week after it's original release? And then Star Wars two later?
That's a rough combo. Hitchhiker's would, I think, be extremely likely to do a number on Serenity's box office - I think a lot of us would, in all honesty, be hesitant to return the next weekend with Hitchhiker's looming. I know I probably would have seen Hitchhiker's over it on a second weekend.
So Hitchhiker's to stunt the momentum, and then Star Wars two later? With a flood of Star Wars advertising kicking in and taking up large amounts of the genre news? (Because, let's remember, newspapers still think of things in terms of "Well, we can put one sci-fi movie on the front page of the Entertainment section this month. Oh, Star Wars is coming out - guess it gets the coverage.")
It was a rough season. Maybe Serenity could have survived in it. The fact that it's having trouble staying afloat against Flightplan, though, does suggest the possibility that this just isn't a hit. Some movies aren't - quality and box office success are often unrelated.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JR:Quote:
Originally posted by baptismo:
What is the "Fanboy effect" and why should it kill things?
To quote the source:Quote:
Fanboy Effect
Certain films have a very loyal following, usually due to their source material. These people will flock to the film as soon as it opens, either over the opening weekend or, more likely, opening night. This inflates these numbers, reducing both the Internal Multiplier and the overall Multiplier.
In a nutshell, this means that they believe the fans will only go to the opening weekend. What they do not realize is that a whole lot of browncoats are planning to repeat (or beat!) last week's numbers by flooding the theaters again weekend.
It's not that only the Fanboys, (and Fangirls) will go, it's just that there's so many they throw off the usual pattern. It doesn't mean the film will earn any less, it just means it will earn it over a shorter time. And that's actually quite good since studios earn a higher percentage of the opening weekend take than from week six, for instance.
A film that's earning reviews this good should have strong word-of-mouth, which will have the opposite effect. However, when these two forces are at work the Fanboy Effect almost always wins.
I'd love for this film to last in the top ten for the next month or so, but I don't think that will be. On the other hand, this film should do amazing business on the home market and The Transporter earned a sequel and it earned about the same amount of money domestically at this point.
C.S.Strowbridge
News Editor / Movie Reviewer / Talentless Hack
http://members.shaw.ca/csstrowbridge/MainPage.htm
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I saw it twice on Wednesday. A friend, a fan whom I converted, came with me on the second showing. Incredible movie! All the best elements of the Firefly and then some!!
Unfortunately I think the article is correct. I haven't seen any TV spots since the BDM debut on the 30th. I would have thought there would have been more of a push especially coming up toward the all telling 2nd weekend. I know a few folks who went last night (Friday) and a couple who went tonight.
For my part, I did leave the theater with a feeling of closure. I can be satisfied with things the way they are. That said, I still want a sequel or 5 very badly. I want see more stories from this 'verse.
The Zot
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