Global warming- past point of no return
POSTED BY: SignyM
UPDATED: Sunday, August 31, 2008 19:16
VIEWED: 7063
PAGE 3 of 7
Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Auraptor- Did you read the abstract or the paper on solar flares and climate change? They make the connection on the basis that solar flare variations look like climate and weather variation. There is no direct correlation between solar flares and global temperature... not even over the reasonably predictable 11-year solar cycle. "Because" weather changes with the same frequency/intensity that solar flares change, "therefore" the two are directly connected? I dunno... since Levy-walk stats describe a number of unconnected phenomenon, wouldn't the similarity in stats (w/o correlation) simply be a product of describing the same thing? (Global energy dynamics in fluid systems?)
*One of the challenges of determining the connection between solar flare activity and the atmosphere stems from the fact that the motion of the air that blankets our planet is turbulent and complex. A sudden burst of solar activity would, in effect, be smeared out by moving air and its interaction with the earth's surface. Any temperature increase caused by a given period of solar flare activity would be difficult to determine, at best. Rather than focus on such challenging one-to-one correlations, the new study compares the form of the statistical fluctuations in solar flare activity with the form of the statistical fluctuations of the earth's temperature
All I know is what is reported. That Mars polar caps are shrinking and the cause has nothing to do w/ SUVs or depletion of the rain forest.
" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:What would you conclude if over a hundred years or so the polar caps on Earth and Mars showed no correlation? What would you conclude if the extent of the changes on Mars were much less - or much greater- than on Earth? Mars' climate has changed, just as Earth's has changed (yup, even before cars and aerosol cans!) But you're presuming the cause on eight year's worth of data (two of which don't correlate to our Earth experience). And even if you could show a robust correlation between Earth and Mars- which you haven't done, but which would be worth trying- you haven't shown a correlation between solar flares and global climate. We could simply have drifted into a realm of space dust. Or Mars' orbit might be wobblier than ours... or more stable. Nobody is saying that climate is inherently stable- but you haven't made a good case for solar flares.
still the polar caps are receeding. Mars if further away from the Sun than Earth, and still feels the effects of solar flares.
Please don't think they give a shit.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:The alien atmosphere processor has been switched on, and is using the ice of Mars to produce air.
Originally posted by AURaptor:
That Mars polar caps are shrinking and the cause has nothing to do w/ SUVs or depletion of the rain forest.
There can be no correlation with the Earth's warming. Stop being silly.
Gif deeze peepul ayahh! Chrisisall
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Long lines of cars are heading out of coastal Texan towns as Hurricane Rita gains strength to become a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph.
"Mother of Storms"
Please don't think they give a shit.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
but you haven't made a good case for solar flares.
I'm not the one making the case, just reporting it. NASA seems to be the one making the case, as well as others at Duke University and elsewhere. The more information we have to go on, the less need for wild speculation.
" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:Quote:
Long lines of cars are heading out of coastal Texan towns as Hurricane Rita gains strength to become a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph.
"Mother of Storms"
Please don't think they give a shit.
Yeah, real bad. Cat5. Might even be as bad as Katrina by the time it makes landfall. Or maybe even Camille. Camille was in 1969.
" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:NASA has NOT made the case for solar flares. All they said was: Mars appears to be undergoing some sort of very short-term climate change. They made no mention of duration, cause, extent, or correlation to Earth. As far as Duke University "and others" -that's the Army. There are no other similar papers out there- I looked for them. So far, the whole solar flare causality itself seems to be just wild speculation.
I'm not the one making the case, just reporting it. NASA seems to be the one making the case, as well as others at Duke University and elsewhere. The more information we have to go on, the less need for wild speculation.
This was educational-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone
Specifically there has been a notable increase in cat 4&5 hurricanes in all six hurriance basins. Also
Quote:However, you have to note that they ASSUME there is no other common factor between the six hurricane basins other than global warming. That assumption may not be true.
Under the assumption that the six basins are statistically independent except for the effect of global warming, Stoft has carried out the obvious paired t-test and found that the null-hypothesis of no impact of global warming on the percentage of category 4 & 5 hurricanes can be rejected at the 0.1% level—there is only a 1 in 1000 chance of simultaneously finding the observed six increases in the cat-4&5 percentages.
Please don't think they give a shit.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
SignyM.... you believe what you want. I see what's been reported and am drawing my own conclusions. You don't have to like or agree with it. I'm not having a debate, as that is a waste of time. Call me 'close minded, narrow minded, blind to the facts, stubborn, etc.... ', all you wish. As more info comes in , it'll only reaffirm how I see things, or I'll change my view as the situation dictates. As of now, the shrinking of the Mars polar caps reaffirms my view that any global warming we may be experiencing is not man made.
Check back in 5 - 20 years, I'll tell ya what I think of the issue then. 
" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Actually, I was hoping that you would help us all out and bird-dog the idea of an Earth-Mars correlation. I'm sure the idea has occurred before, there have GOT to be papers exploring the connection. See if you can find further or better evidence. It would be interesting.
Please don't think they give a shit.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Well heck. If you won't, I will. This one talks about Mars' ice ages, and ties them to orbit wobbles.
www.planetary.brown.edu/planetary/documents/2957.pdf
This is exactly what I was looking for, but only has data for 6 years and is fomr 1985
www.springerlink.com/app/home/contribution.asp?wasp=92c210d0961f457697
d258e12dfdce2e&referrer=
parent&backto=issue,5,6;journal,106,212;linkingpublicationresults,1:400258,1
I'll have to sort this one out later!
www.planetary.brown.edu/planetary/documents/3101.pdf
Please don't think they give a shit.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME