EW: Uni Exec: Serenity must make north of 80 million for sequels
POSTED BY: rklenseth
UPDATED: Wednesday, August 17, 2005 16:01
VIEWED: 22260
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Quote:
Originally posted by huitzil:
I'm not sure how many of you guys are american - and how much difference that makes on the whole America-rules-the-world-and-movies front, but speaking as a little Brit, I think this thing's gonna go much bigger international than you guys think.
All guilt is relative. Loyalty counts. And never let your conscience be your guide.
I very much hope you're right. The International box office exceeding the domestic box office would be huge. It doesn't happen a lot, but it does happen frequently enough that it isn't a total shock.
The two biggest examples in recent years are the Bridget Jones movies. The first made $71.5 in America and $210 internationally, and the sequal pulled $40.2 in America and $221 internationally. I think either of those things would cause a definite sequal.
I can't speak for everyone, but I will say that I personally have no way to guage international interest. We don't wave flags around here, so I don't know who is and isn't from America, Canada, England, etc.. The projections I have made have been based on the norm. Most movies make 25-30% internationally of what they made domestically. So, to be safe, that's what I've been figuring. If this movie breaks the norm and is a 50%, 75%, or even better yet, a higher total internationally, then that's better for all of us.
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Quote:
Originally posted by batmarlowe:
In the case of box office "domestic" may mean the U.S. and Canada--I've never known that.
I've never seen a listing for Canadian box office, so my guess is that "domestic" actually means North American.
Check out boxofficemojo.com and look at a huge movie that played pretty much everywhere (Star Wars) and you can get an idea of what countries typically report.
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Quote:
Originally posted by batmarlowe:
Has anyone heard anything on how many screens will be showing it on opening weekend? I would think it be somewhere around 1000 domestically.
/B]
I think RKLenseth is likey closer to correct with his 2,500 screen estimate. 1,000 screens is next nothing.
The 3 movies that opened this weekend had each of the following screen counts:
Four Brothers - 2533
Skeleton Key - 2771
Deuce Bigalow - 3127
The budget for Four Brothers was $45 million, meaning it's about the same size project as Serenity. So I'd say you can bet on at least 2500 screens. Again, to go back and use the analogy from last year's 1st weekend in Oct, Ladder 49 opened on 3261 screens.
Most movies that finish a weekend ranked #1 in an "off" week will average between $8,000 and $12,000 per screen. Of course, a big movie like Spiderman will average $30,000 per screen. With the cult like following of Serenity, I think we can count on at least $8,000. The trick will be to shoot for that $11,000-15,000 per screen average.
To break that down into raw numbers-- if Serenity opens on 2500 screens this will be the opening weekend totals based on per screen average:
$8,000 average - $20 million (roughly what Four Brothers made this past weekend)
$11,000 average - $27.5 million
$15,000 average - $37.5 million
The last movie to average $15,000+ on its opening weekend was The Fantastic Four, and it opened on 3600 screens. Keep in mind that this means that Charlie and the Chocolate Factory failed to hit $15,000, falling just short at about $14,900 per screen. So that's a tough number to reach. Of course, the fewer screens, the higher your average tends to be.
My guess is that Serenity will likey fall somewhere between $8,000 and $10,000 with somewhere between 2500 and 3000 screens. I'd say that $27.5 million would likely please Universal. So if we're at only 2500 screens, that means an average of $11,000 per theatre.
So what does this mean? What it always means -- Go see the movie.
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Quote:
Originally posted by FlyingTams:Quote:
Originally posted by embers:Quote:
Originally posted by rklenseth:
Entertainment Weekly quotes a Universal exec saying that Serenity will have to make over 80 million dollars in order to be considered for sequels.
is that US opening weekend, or does it include world wide and/or DVD sales...
{/QUOTE]
Probably the opening weekend? because there is no way it won't make 80 mil - its not just DVD, its also licensing rights. Even with a cast of unknowns and a totally crap story and lame effects a movie can make a lot of money. It is a business you know, and Hollyweird has been turning out crap movies and making a bundle for many decades.
It can't be the opening weekend. Few movies make that the opening weekend. Besides why would the studio say they wouldn't make a sequal just because the opening weekend was less than 80 million if it went on the make 300 million total. Thats dumb. So He must be talking about total. But you are right that 80 million is easy if you count DVD sales which is where a lot of movies (ie: the Punisher which is getting a sequal simply because of DVD) make their money.NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by Quicksand:
*snarl* I didn't see "Fantastic Four" because it was directed by Tim Story, who gave the world "Barbershop" and "Taxi."
A director cannot save a bad script no matter how good he is. Actors cannot save a bad script no matter how good they are. Example: "Batman Returns." Great director (Tim Burton) and an all star cast could not help this movie because the script was just too weak. Not as weak as the next two Batman movies but you get my point. However a great script can make a good movie even with a bad director and bad actors. Now we all know that the director (Joss) is good. We also know that the actors are perfect for their roles. And if nothing else in this world is certain, Joss is a damn good writer. The movie is gonna be good and its gonna do good, because good movies, unlike good TV shows almost always do well. If I tell my friend to go see a movie because it is awesome he probably will. But if I tell him to tune into a show at 8:00 Friday night when he already plans to go see his highschool football game, or is taking his wife out to dinner he won't. Speaking of football the BDM is released at the beginning of football season, which might hurt sales a little. But it should still do well, and DVDs are going to do very well, so I have little fear that we won't get a sequal based on money.
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If SERENITY is getting 2500 screens, I think we we'll average $8,000 easily. I know there is usually a dropoff but we have the cult advantage so I think the dropoff will be less than usual.
With the movie opening earlier in other countries we can toss that total in as well, which means opening weekend will give us more than 20 mil worldwide.
If the second week has a less-than-expected dropoff, then Universal will keep it in first run longer than two weeks. Plus the cult is worldwide as well, so feel good about a strong second week. Hopefully with word of mouth, the movie develop a set of "legs" that would make Stephanie Romanov jealous and we'll get our 80 million in four weeks or so.
It may take longer but we'll be giving it the kind of repeat business it needs to keep it from getting yanked out of general release.
I'm betting on us. 80 mil worldwide--I think we're gonna to this! And this is coming from someone who is a bona fide pessimist about everything else in life.
In the end you are absolutely correct. Go see the movie!
P.S. Maybe we should wave flags around here. Not in a jingoistic way, but maybe if the mods could give us some flag icons, we could use them in our posts, so we'd know the country from which the people we're talking to come.
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Quote:
Originally posted by batmarlowe:
If SERENITY is getting 2500 screens, I think we we'll average $8,000 easily. I know there is usually a dropoff but we have the cult advantage so I think the dropoff will be less than usual.
With the movie opening earlier in other countries we can toss that total in as well, which means opening weekend will give us more than 20 mil worldwide.
If the second week has a less-than-expected dropoff, then Universal will keep it in first run longer than two weeks. Plus the cult is worldwide as well, so feel good about a strong second week. Hopefully with word of mouth, the movie develop a set of "legs" that would make Stephanie Romanov jealous and we'll get our 80 million in four weeks or so.
It may take longer but we'll be giving it the kind of repeat business it needs to keep it from getting yanked out of general release.
I'm betting on us. 80 mil worldwide--I think we're gonna to this! And this is coming from someone who is a bona fide pessimist about everything else in life.
In the end you are absolutely correct. Go see the movie!
P.S. Maybe we should wave flags around here. Not in a jingoistic way, but maybe if the mods could give us some flag icons, we could use them in our posts, so we'd know the country from which the people we're talking to come.
The way it typically works is that the studios get their highest portion of box office (in terms of percentage of each ticket and how it splits between studio and theatre chain) during the first 2 weeks, which is why opening weekend is so important. After the first two weeks, it's typically another 4 weeks before there is another dropoff. So it is usually VERY rare for a movie to not make it longer than 6-8 weeks in the theatre, unless you're talking about a theatre with less than 6 screens. 8 weeks would take Serenity into the Thanksgiving weekend, which might be a bit of a stretch, but 7 weeks is pretty likely - with Serenity exiting theatres when the new Holiday movies come in.
If Serenity can maintain 2500 screens for 4 weeks, and not drop below 1500 screens for the remaining 3 weeks, then the $80 million should get there. As long as there is consistent, steady business through the 4th week ($5-7 million) then the theatre chains will hang on to a movie, because during the 5th and 6th weeks is when they start to get a little larger portion of each ticket.
As was talked about at the beginning of this thread, Serenity is opening on a busy weekend.
It shares Sept 30 with Into the Blue (Paul Walker and Jessica Alba), The Greatest Game Ever Played (A Disney release), and A History of Violence (Viggo Mortensen). None of those will be big box office smashes, but they will likely keep most theatres from carrying more than one print of Serenity.
What is odd is that Universal has another movie coming out Oct 7, starring Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey called Two For the Money. Neither guy at this point is a box office magnet, so while it might beat Serenity, it won't hurt it either. The Wallace and Grommit movie (Chicken Run) is a different story, as it's likely to be a pretty big hit. But it's also likely to take the family audience, which isn't the competition for Serenity. The third movie that weekend is In Her Shoes, which is directed by Curtis Hansen (LA Confidential, Wonder Boys), so it will likely be pretty good, but starring Cameron Diaz and Toni Collette means that it won't open huge.
Oct 14 has Domino (Keira Knightley) and Elizabethtown (Orlando Bloom and Kirsten Dunst), as well as the remake of the John Carpenter classic The Fog. Those will all do decent business (with The Fog relying on the pre-Halloween horror boost), but again, none are big box office smash types, so Serenity should still be able to manage that $5-7 million.
Oct 21 is another big weekend in terms of number of movies, though none are likely to be big hits. There's Derailed (Clive Owen and Jennifer Aniston), Doom (based on the video game), Dreamer (think Seabiscuit, but with a kid instead of Tobey
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Alright people, you all talk a good game, but let's make it interesting. Predictions please, on the total box office take through December 6th, two full months after initial release. Frankly, I don't think Universal gives a damn if the 80 million is opening weekend, domestic, international, or via private donation. To get the ball rolling, I'll come in with my prediction first.
Serenity is a Pulp Fiction, but not a Raiders of the Lost Ark.
$175 million worldwide by December 6th.
Person who is closest without going over gets bragging rights until the sequel comes out.
Sag.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Quicksand:
*snarl* I didn't see "Fantastic Four" because it was directed by Tim Story, who gave the world "Barbershop" and "Taxi." Yes, every movie will receive negative reviews, but those first two received so many bad ones that you could build a battle cruiser from them. I watched the trailer for "Taxi" thinking, "THIS is the best stuff from the movie? THIS is how they're gonna get me to go see it?" Shockingly, pal, if the acting, dialogue and gist of the story are 0 for 3 in the trailer, 98% of the time, the movie will suck too. Try it, it works.
What is with the snarl and the attitude? I was just trying to say that people need to give a movie a chance before bashing it. I wasn't trying to start a fight. I saw the "Fantastic Four" trailer and thought it looked good. The critics bashed it so I started having second thoughts about seeing it. But because I disagree with most critic's choices, I decided to watch it. I, and my three friends who saw it with me, thought it was a very fun movie. I'm glad I decided to try watching it.
I also thought the "Stealth" trailer looked interesting. Having a limited budget, I will put off watching it until it goes to the movie channel, but I do plan on watching it.
"War of the Worlds" was a little different for me. I wasn't impressed by the trailer but watched it because my friends wanted to. We were all disappointed.
I guess the point is, if you like the trailer, try watching it. If you don't like the trailer, don't watch it. But don't bash something you haven't seen. I just hope that people who see the trailer and think it looks good, don't get persuaded out of watching it because of some bad reviews.
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I'm afraid I will have to rent Zorro, I'll be too busy seeing Serenity in the theatre.
Buy stock in Universal now Chrisisall
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