EW: Uni Exec: Serenity must make north of 80 million for sequels
POSTED BY: rklenseth
UPDATED: Wednesday, August 17, 2005 16:01
VIEWED: 22260
PAGE 4 of 7
Interesting to note:
My former roommate is a manager at a large chain theatre. He recently went to a corporate meeting where they gave them a book of projections done by Movieline that this particular chain and several others use to guage potential interest in movies. Well, it seems as though the folks at Movieline (I don't know if it is related to the website that does trailers, so don't jump over there and start bashing) don't think too much of our little cult movie. Their projections for Serenity are a $3.5 million opening weekend and a $10 million total box office.
Now, after laughing and saying that I think Serenity will have topped $10 million by the end of Friday, I started to think about this, and realized that this is actually pretty good news.
If the major theatre chains use Movieline, then that means that Universal probably also takes a look at their projections. So, if these projections are for $10 million, and Serenity has a $25 million opening weekend, then it will have FAR exceeded industry expectations. Exceeding expectations is one of the easiest ways to achieve a sequal without having to put up blockbuster numbers.
Take the movie "Pitch Black" for example. Its opening weekend total of $11.5 million certainly didn't turn most heads, nor did its $39.2 million total box office gross. But a moderate cost of $23 million, coupled with good DVD sales, and a rising star in Vin Diesel got the Chroincles of Riddick made - and made by Universal Studios.
The Chronicles of Riddick didn't necessarily knock it out of the park with a $57.7 million US box office, but it also made $57.6 million over sees, for a worldwide total of $115.3 million. Its big cost of $105 million means it probably won't get another sequel, but it did well enough worldwide that Universal probably won't be scared of greenlighting a moderately priced sequal to Serenity.
So, the moderate cost of Serenity will help. The DVD sales will be a certainty, based on sales of the tv set. And the rising star thing could come to fruition also... certainly Nathan Fillion or Summer Glau (or any of the BDHs) could become a big star, but the rising star of this film is most likely to be Joss Whedon.
Keep in mind that he's set to make Wonder Woman next. If Wonder Woman comes out and makes Batman Begins like money ($200 million domestic, $350 million worldwide - and climbing), X-Men 2 like money ($215 million domestic, $406 worldwide) or Spiderman like money ($403.7 million domestic, $821 million worldwide)then Joss Whedon will be able to make whatever movie he wants to make, regardless of any box office from Serenity.
So....
#1) go see the movie -- obviously. Universal has told us $80 million, but that's a pretty arbitrary number. As long as Serenity exceeds expectations, we're doing fine. And if those expectations are a meger $10 million, then that should be easy.
#2) buy the DVD. Big DVD sales and rentals were responsible for the sequals to Austin Powers (which only made $53.8 million, but also had Mike Meyers rising star).
#3) Hope that Wonder Woman does well. It really doesn't matter how well Serenity does if Wonder Woman becomes a huge hit. But if Wonder Woman fails (see Catwoman) or just never happens (See the Superman Lives project of 1999 with Tim Burton attached, or the revolving door of directors for Superman Returns and X-Men 3), then big box office or DVD sales will be crucial.
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Quote:
Originally posted by mikelesq:
So if we want a Bigger Damn Movie for Christmas 2006, it needs to do really well out of the gate.
With Joss Whedon signed to direct Wonder Woman in 2006, there is almost no chance that he would have time for a Serenity sequel until 2007.
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Quote:
Originally posted by nxojkt:
The Greatest Game Ever Played is "from the producers of 'Remember the Titans' 'The Rookie' and 'Miracle'" which grossed, $115.6, $75.6, and $64.3 million respectively, and cleaned up on DVD. I think you can expect a $15-20 million opening weekend for it. Serenity SHOULD beat this, but it will be some competition, mainly due to the limitless pocketbooks at Disney when it comes to marketing.
Whereas these other movies I had some interest in, even after seeing the trailer for the Greatest Game Ever Played, it just looks to be nowhere near the level of the other films. And I even have something other than my own opinion to go on.
Those movies grossed totals relative to the popularity of their respective sports. Football is by far the most popular, followed by baseball. Miracle probably out-grossed the popularity of hockey in the US currently, but it was a patriotic film at heart, that just happened to have hockey as a backdrop. Plus it was a very well known story. And that opened at slightly less than $20mil.
So, I would say that Golf ranks just slightly above hockey in terms on American popularity, and much of that is due to the Tiger Woods effect (need proof? Just compare TV ratings of the final days of majors when Tiger is contention vs. when he isn't). So, this not having the strong patriotic ties of Miracle, and being about a sport less popular, I think it could open worse than Miracle. Probably in the $10-15M range.
I will qualify my statement on the Corpse Bride a bit. There are a lot of Burton fans out there, but I wonder if this one isn't a little unusual, even by those standards. Not to mention, it seems like it should be released a month later, as a Halloween movie. I think if the movie were truely great, the studio would have released it at the end of October. The fact they didn't, makes me wonder what their opinion of it is. Which means, while it should have a decent opening ($25mil?), it should drop off.
I see the Box Office Numbers for Sept 30-Oct 2 looking like
1) Serenity $30mil
2) Greatest Game $15mil
2) Corpse Bride $12.5mil
And if that doesn't make people stand up and take notice, I don't know what will.
"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com
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I know this sounds arrogant but Movieline doesn't know what they're talking about. Here's why I say that:
They don't know FIREFLY
They don't know us.
And apparently they haven't heard William Goldman say "Nobody knows anything".
My guess is their low prediction is beacause it has no stars, is an off-season release, and is based on a cancelled T.V. show "nobody" watched.
How many screens is it getting opening weekend?
Anyway, I'm predicting 20 million opening weekend, domestic (I'd bet money on that, but I'll be spending it on SERENITY). We can do that if we see it at least twice and get our recruits to see it at least twice. We'll create word of mouth. That'll keep it running more than two weeks. By the end of at the fourth weekend, I see another 20 million. Meanwhile the rest of the world will be close to duplicating what we're doing. I'm bettin' by the end of the fourth weekend we'll have 80 million in worldwide gross.
Just so long as we don't get cocky.
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I'm not sure how many of you guys are american - and how much difference that makes on the whole America-rules-the-world-and-movies front, but speaking as a little Brit, I think this thing's gonna go much bigger international than you guys think.
Also what's all this "try and see it three times"! I booked the friday off for the preview - and i'm going to watch it across the whole weekend as many times as I can fit in, with various friends, relatives, complete strangers met in pubs.....
I'm Considering (on quite how financially flush I am at the time) buying a couple of extra tickets for each showing and just handing them out in the cinema foyer. Even if I only do it once, if I cause a fair ruckus at the time it'll get some attention for the BDM! Handing 11th hour's flyers out can't hurt either! :)
___________
All guilt is relative. Loyalty counts. And never let your conscience be your guide.
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Hey, I hope the rest of the world beats the pants off us in terms of foreign (to us Yanks) box office.
Generally speaking the only numbers we see reported here are domestic. In the case of box office "domestic" may mean the U.S. and Canada--I've never known that. And I've also never known how foreign box office usually compares to domestic on say a moderate hit. So I was saying "comes close to duplicating" so as not to be overly optimistic.
Seeing two or three times? Well, not everyone can afford to see it more than that. But those who are committed to 5, 10, 15, or more times? More power to 'em! They are Big Damn Heroes and so are you!
If, at the very least, Universal gives us four weeks to make 80 mil worldwide then it's a done deal. It could happen sooner and if it does then we are even mightier than we thought we were!
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Itchy trigger finger - double post.
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One small thing that people need to keep in mind when imagining numbers for Serenity's opening weekend is the number of screens it will be shown on. Many of the summer "blockbusters" were shown on multiple screens in each theater. I don't know for sure, but I highly doubt that it will end up playing on three or four screens, probably not even two. That may limit the opening weekend take even though every showing might sell out. 
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I agree. I doubt it's the kind of movie that will play on more than one screen in a multi-plex. Has anyone heard anything on how many screens will be showing it on opening weekend? I would think it be somewhere around 1000 domestically.
But during October or so it will open in more countries around the world, and that will greatly increase the amount of screens. If Universal had said they wanted 80 domestically in two weeks, I'd be panicing. But worldwide, I think we will do it.
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Serenity will be playing at 2,500 screens domestically.
Serenity will actually be opening on September 29th in most places in the world so the rest of the world will be getting Serenity before the US and Canada with the exception of the UK which won't get Serenity until Octobor.
Oh, and play Cantr II at www.cantr.net.
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