EW: Uni Exec: Serenity must make north of 80 million for sequels
POSTED BY: rklenseth
UPDATED: Wednesday, August 17, 2005 16:01
VIEWED: 22260
PAGE 3 of 7
I would like to point out that Oliver Twist is only a limited release.
The only other wide release and real competition so far that weekend is Into the Blue. Lord of War was also to open that weekend but the studio pushed it up to Sept. 16 because of the Serenity hype.
Oh, and play Cantr II at www.cantr.net.
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Quote:Trust in and add to the positive word of mouth.
Originally posted by SimonWho:
So, how do we get 3.2m people to watch the movie on the opening weekend?
My only concern is that the trailer paints it a little dark. We can expect ( in terms of non-FF fans ) large shares of those who payed to see SWROTS, Batman Begins, and Fantastic Four to go for it, only once people actually start passing word of mouth like: "it was better than I thought...", that's where it's legs come in.
Nothing beats a great pair of legs Chrisisall
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Quote:Embers, in the late 70's and early 80's I ran around conventions dressed like Luke Skywalker, made my own lightsabre and stormtrooper blasters, and saw Star Wars OVER 50 times in it's first year of release. I would call that hard-core.
Originally posted by embers:
Star Wars III made half as much $ it's second week,
and half again as much it's third week,
and then it dropped like a stone.
I still haven't seen Revenge of the Sith. I'll eventually rent it.
If the last three SW movies came out way back then, I would have done what I did with Logan's Run, and seen each maybe three times. And only 'cause they looked good.
My point is that if SWROTS can pull that kind of money JUST from non-disillusioned hard-core fans plus event-goers, Serenity is a shoe-in!
Words like original and refreshing in reviews won't hurt either.
Like the sold out Serenity comics at comicshops, the BDM will surprise the box-office doubters.
Sooth-sayer Chrisisall
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Tibby, great suggestions! I like the way you think!
One advantage Serenity has over most of the competition is re-watchability. If it's almost as important for us core fans to go 2nd weekend, I'm sure we can "force" ourselves to do so! 
I've already got firm plans to see it twice opening day, and should have 1st Saturday sorted out soon. Now I know to add 2nd & 3rd weekends to my local Nerd Herd's plans.
Remember that the Monday after opening weekend, most of us will be returning to work with big goofy happy grins embedded in our faces. We'll be creating an intriguing buzz that will permeate our work/school places without any conscious effort.
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I hope that most people don't have the attitude of Quicksand in a post above or Serenity won't do very good. He says that Stealth and Fantastic Four were not good movies then goes on to say he hasn't even seen them. I'm assuming he says they aren't good based on reviews he has seen. If people see bad reviews of Serenity and say its not a good movie without seeing it, it will flop. And there will be some bad reviews, there always are. You should at least see a movie before saying it isn't any good. I frequently disagree with reviewers. I personally thought Fantastic Four was the second best movie I've seen this year, after Batman Begins.
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*snarl* I didn't see "Fantastic Four" because it was directed by Tim Story, who gave the world "Barbershop" and "Taxi." Yes, every movie will receive negative reviews, but those first two received so many bad ones that you could build a battle cruiser from them. I watched the trailer for "Taxi" thinking, "THIS is the best stuff from the movie? THIS is how they're gonna get me to go see it?" Shockingly, pal, if the acting, dialogue and gist of the story are 0 for 3 in the trailer, 98% of the time, the movie will suck too. Try it, it works.
And Stealth... well, I explained Stealth.
Joss Whedon has been writing some fantastic works for years, and I think it's impossible for any trailers or adversiting to hide that fact, just as no trailer in the 'verse could make "Stealth" or "Elektra" look good to anyone. To name two.
And the more that I think about it, $80 million is SUCH an arbitrary number. When was the last time a movie made more than $80 million, but less than $100 million? It NEVER happens, not anymore. Everything is outstandingly good (Big $$), amazingly bad (tank), or just so/so, which means the studio will adverstise the hell out of it in hopes of making a profit. I don't need to tell you which Serenity will be.
HOWEVER-- as I said, most big dumb summer movies plummet in $$$$-intake so quickly because everyone who is going to see them, sees them opening weekend. "Serenity," it goes without saying, will continue to attract people, because of the talented people who came together to create it. From the TV show, we know it's a superior product. (read: "Freaking Cool.")
Something which the entire Summer of '05 was lacking, no matter which ones I saw, or didn't see.
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My goal is to see it atleast 3 times.
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I actually really enjoyed War of the Worlds, and saw it twice. There was something about the stark horror of certain scenes - a crystalisation of everything I dread - that hooked me. Plus I was an immense fan of the book and was just waiting for someone to do a realist low key version of an alien invasion, even if they did (gngh) transplant it to modern america. (Which actually worked superbly, I thought. My only gripe was Robbie's survival, which although thematically correct, was utterly unrealistic)
Back on to Serenity.
I know personally four people in South Wales who will see it at least twice, and a dozen more across the country who will see it at least once. I'll see it three times at least. I cautiously hope it will make 80 mil, but I touch wood anyway for fear of jinxing.
Anyway, a big hurrah for the Universal Exec for letting us know where we stand! I think it's a reasonable target and I can't blame them, they like the movie but they're still in the moneymaking business.
Still, if Serenity beats 'Sideways' for me in personal approval, my fave film so far this year, then I will be surprised.
"If you can keep your head whilst others... eurgh! Ack! I've spilt my ink! Ugh! Ink on my trousers! Agh! Ink on my shirt! My only hope! The window! Aieeeeee!" (Falls to death)
- Jonathan Nash
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Couple of things.
Having seen Serenity already (yay me!) I personally feel it is the kind of movie that even non-fans may want to see twice. It is fast paced, with so many great lines that can be easily missed, and so many nuances (sp) that you kinda of (ok, I kind of) walked out thinking, oh, I gotta see that again to get all the stuff I missed!
And while I still do wish Universal would do more on the general advertising front (sorry, but I've seen promos for movies that aren't coming out till November!)I agree that it's gonna be up to us. It is indeed a "cult" show and movie, so we gotta get peoples in the theaters. My daughter and I already have people who have promised to go see it with us the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd weekends. Between the two of us, we probably will be taking 15-20 non-fans to the theater. And most of these are people we could not convince to sit down and watch all the DVD's of Firefly. They were more willing to go see a movie then spend the time watching DVD's.
So get your friends, family, co-workers, and strangers off the street to see it!
We are driven, and that makes us good recruiters (sp)!
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There are two reasons we need good box office:
1) Universal needs to make money, and
2) Theaters need to want a sequel
A good 4 week run is ususally enough to make both happy. Studios/distributors get the lion's share of the first two weeks revenue, whereas theaters take most of the second two weeks plus (the first two weeks they make their money mostly on popcorn).
So a $80 million take would probably represent $50 million the first two weeks (making Universal most of their money back, and the foreign/cable/broadcast/DVD money would be almost pure profit), and another $30 million plus for theater owners. At that point, Universal would want to make another movie, and there would be the 3000+ theaters that would want to take it.
Now, if we can get $50 million the first weekend, and sustain for the next three weeks to get around $100+ million, then a sequel would be ordered quickly. While $80 million total might get a sequel, it might not get a green light until the DVD sales. So if we want a Bigger Damn Movie for Christmas 2006, it needs to do really well out of the gate.
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