EW: Uni Exec: Serenity must make north of 80 million for sequels
POSTED BY: rklenseth
UPDATED: Wednesday, August 17, 2005 16:01
VIEWED: 22260
PAGE 2 of 7
Quote:
Originally posted by Barclay:
Sept 30th
Serenity
The Greatest Game Ever Played (A feel-good Disney Golf movie. Like anyone is going to see that).
Oct 14
Elizabethtown (Orlando Bloom among others)
Domino (Keira Knightley). These could cut into Serenity a bit, which is why I predicted a bigger drop off.
"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com
The Greatest Game Ever Played is "from the producers of 'Remember the Titans' 'The Rookie' and 'Miracle'" which grossed, $115.6, $75.6, and $64.3 million respectively, and cleaned up on DVD. I think you can expect a $15-20 million opening weekend for it. Serenity SHOULD beat this, but it will be some competition, mainly due to the limitless pocketbooks at Disney when it comes to marketing.
Elizabethtown stars not only Orlando Bloom, but also Kirsten Dunst, and is from Cameron Crowe, who has had big hits like Jerry Maguire and Vanilla Sky. I wouldn't be surprised if it actually beats Domino. That's mainly because I don't think anyone really cares about Keira Knightley - lord knows the box office for King Arthur wasn't helped by her presence.
Serenity should have the time to get its $75-80 million domestic before the holiday movies start, though - you are correct there. I'm not quite as optomistic in my projections, but we really aren't that far off.
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Thank you both for breaking down the numbers for the rest of us. All the predictions look good.
I'd like to see better than good. I think if we get out there and increase our guerrilla marketing efforts, we can not only make Universal consent to a sequel, we can make the rest of the industry stand up and take notice.
"You can't take my show from me,
Because I've got the DVD."
www.BedlamBards.com
Ballad of Joss: http://mp3-postcards.com/listen/?888
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A movie called "The Greatest Game Ever Played"? Could I have a wild guess that the winner turns out to be America/an American? (I genuinely don't know but I'm taking a shot here).
I think we need to know if it's $80m domestic, $80m worldwide or $80m with everything thrown in before we can make real judgements.
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Quote:
Originally posted by SimonWho:
A movie called "The Greatest Game Ever Played"? Could I have a wild guess that the winner turns out to be America/an American? (I genuinely don't know but I'm taking a shot here).
The Greatest Game Ever Played is the true story of the 1913 US Open Golf tournament. In the tournament, Francis Ouimet, the 20 year old son of an immigrant beat the world's best golfers in the event that catupluted golf into popularity in the US. It's a pretty famous event for golf fans, and the trailers for it look pretty good. Incedentally, it is directed by Bill Paxton, whose directorial debut "Frailty" is pretty excellent.
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It's quite simple: If you're a true Browncoat go see this movie at least 5 times in the theater. Twice on opening weekend. Invite everyone you know who might be remotely interested to come along every single time. Even if they aren't into this kind of movie, bribe them in some way ("Hey, I'll drive"), guilt trip them into it("I don't like to go to movies alone"), or outright trick them under the pretense of seeing something else, only to show up at the theater at the wrong time. Heck, go to the wrong theater altogether (one that has Serenity). I know thats what I plan on doing. I guarantee this film will make north of 80 million if everyone else does the same thing.
Granted, just seeing the film 5X by yourself would probably do the trick, but it never hurts to bring in more cash for the film.
Buy the DVD immediately when it comes out. DVD sales help alot (as we have seen) Buy the merchandise.
Let's be realistic, this is a cult film based on a cult series. If you want sequels this is how you're gonna get them.
The film is awesome. I got to see it on May 5th, even got an autograph from "the man they call Jayne", but we cannot rely on the quality of the film alone to push it past 80 million. Not in this day and age.
Do your duty Browncoats
"It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who strives... who spends himself... and who at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring, so that his place shall never be with those cold timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat"
-Theodore Roosevelt
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All the fans go see the movie 8 times. (twice opening day - once everyday after - or buy a ticktet and don't go or give it to a homeless guy)
Problem solved.
Also - lets not forget that the money from the sell out advance screenings is going to add some extra beans to the cannolis.
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Bah.
Movies drop 50% in their second week because they suck. Stealth, Fantastic Four, War of the Worlds........ these were not good movies, but in some cases the hype makes us feel like we NEED to see them. I stayed far away from the first two, and "War of the Worlds" was fun to sit through once; I don't forsee that I'll ever watch it again, not could I give it any better than a B- or C+ review. Everyone who was going to see those movies, went in Week One. To use those as only three examples.
Most movies like these are marketed to 12 year old boys. There aren't a lot of 40-year-olds going to see Vin Diesel movies, for example.
Whereas MTV is also marketed to 12-year-olds, it's the VH1 crowd (25-35) that will enjoy Serenity. Market to them, and make the movie worth seeing a 2nd time, and we're in. Market to 12-year-olds, and it'll be over their heads. Which is the reason the show got cancelled.
Enough promos and I hope people will see it, word will spread. $80 million is a LOT for a smaller movie like this-- Blade only capped around $60 million and had not one, but TWO sequels.
Also, opening the same weekend, Oscar-worthy "Oliver Twist," directed by Roman Polanski. Not a 12-year-olds movie, either.
Hopefully people will be in a movie-going mood come late September, after 9 straight months of crap. THE PLUS: Hey, "Speed" was pretty much all Joss, and that was the biggest hit of 1993ish. THE MINUS: It's a space movie, in September. Space movies don't come out much at all these days... anyone remember the final gross of A:R?
Let's keep our fingers crossed. And our wallets open. I'm guaranteeing I'm going 3 times, even if it sucks worse than Phantom Menace. 
(....which it won't, but... mm, hey, i'm just hoping for slow and steady, like the sixth sense, remember?)
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Why in the world would you think that TIM BURTON'S CORPSE BRIDE would tank? Next to SERENITY, that's the one flick in September I'm eager as Hell to see. Not only do you have the powerhouse combo of Burton and Depp (which after CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY is the most potent director/actor team in the industry today), but you also have 12 years of nostalgia betwen it and NIGHTMARE BEFORE XMAS. NIGHTMARE might've been a mid-sized hit in 93, but in that time has become a monument of the Goth, animation and children's crowd. Everyone whose seen it loves it tremendously, and will most definitly be showing up for it.
All the other flicks opening before and after SERENITY might not pose a challenge, but CORPSE BRIDE is the only flick that I'd really be concerned about.
Oh, and for the 30th, I'm planning on seeing it 4 times in a row and dressed as Wash. I was planning on going as Wash for Halloween, but I've decided to go ahead by a month.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
And wow! Hey! What's this thing suddenly coming towards me very fast? Very very fast. So big and flat and round, it needs a big wide sounding name like ... ow ... ound ... round ... ground! That's it! That's a good name - ground! I wonder if it will be friends with me?
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Quote:For someone with no official experience, I'd say you hit it pretty close to the mark.
Originally posted by Barclay:
So while I have no official experience regarding movies, I think these estimates are realistic enough that we could get a domestic gross of $80mil, before worldwide and secondary sales are added in (Serenity, like Star Trek, is going to make a killing on the secondary market).
I've followed movie trends as the've related to stock value, and have been right in my box office predictions most times. SWROTS performed only a little better than I expected, but dropped off sooner, too.
Serenity will have the expected 2nd week dropoff, but it'll have legs (word of mouth, multiple viewings, rising cult status), so a mere $80,000,000 is easy.
We've as good as got our sequal.
Champaign, anyone?
Just remember to coax others after ya see it Chrisisall
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Quote:
Originally posted by nxojkt:Quote:
Originally posted by SimonWho:
A movie called "The Greatest Game Ever Played"? Could I have a wild guess that the winner turns out to be America/an American? (I genuinely don't know but I'm taking a shot here).
The Greatest Game Ever Played is the true story of the 1913 US Open Golf tournament. In the tournament, Francis Ouimet, the 20 year old son of an immigrant beat the world's best golfers in the event that catupluted golf into popularity in the US. It's a pretty famous event for golf fans, and the trailers for it look pretty good. Incedentally, it is directed by Bill Paxton, whose directorial debut "Frailty" is pretty excellent.
Soooooooooooo, it's an American who wins then?
And yeah, Frailty was good.
M,BatT I still have major concerns about how broad the fanbase is. Yes the screenings sell out in no time but we already know we have 50,000 Browncoats dedicated enough to register accounts online. Even if they all go see the movie opening weekend an extra four times, that's still only another $2m in the kitty.
Let's assume that the movie only has a 40% drop off every week (that's still very good for a movie, particularly a sci-fi one). That means, to reach $80m domestically, we need a $32m opening.
Chances are they'll know by Monday 3rd the state of the franchise. DVD sales might be a bonus shot but given the current state of that market, I wouldn't pin our hopes there.
So, how do we get 3.2m people to watch the movie on the opening weekend?
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