EW: Uni Exec: Serenity must make north of 80 million for sequels
POSTED BY: rklenseth
UPDATED: Wednesday, August 17, 2005 16:01
VIEWED: 22260
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Entertainment Weekly quotes a Universal exec saying that Serenity will have to make over 80 million dollars in order to be considered for sequels. If it does not make 80 million than Serenity will be all we get.
Oh, and play Cantr II at www.cantr.net.
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Then I wish they'd get busy promoting the thing Gorram it!!!!
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Movies aren't promoted until about three to two weeks before the movie opens. Don't expect anything except trailers, posters, and blurbs in the media until about three to two weeks before opening day.
Oh, and play Cantr II at www.cantr.net.
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Quote:
Originally posted by BayBreeze1:
Then I wish they'd get busy promoting the thing Gorram it!!!!
I reckon that's up to us.
Here's a thought--if any of you know teenagers, get them hooked on the show. Teenagers talk a lot about media, and they tend to spend disposable cash on movies. I recruited my niece and nephew last week, and now they're telling their friends, who will tell their friends.
We can make this happen.
Now, on the subject of 80 million dollars, what is that in captain dummy talk? How much is that compared to what other movies have pulled in? Could someone who knows more about the movie biz explain this one?
"You can't take my show from me,
Because I've got the DVD."
www.BedlamBards.com
Ballad of Joss: http://mp3-postcards.com/listen/?888
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Quote:
Originally posted by rklenseth:
Entertainment Weekly quotes a Universal exec saying that Serenity will have to make over 80 million dollars in order to be considered for sequels.
is that US opening weekend, or does it include world wide and/or DVD sales...
because I'm thinking we'll have no trouble at all making way more than that money!
Opening weekend may not be more than $30million...
but I'm hoping that it'll build an audience.
Lately, have you noticed? Even Star Wars III made half as much $ it's second week,
and half again as much it's third week,
and then it dropped like a stone.
I'm hoping that we'll still be making money a month after release!
Word of mouth people!!!!
Join my crew: Fairfield Fireflies
(Middle-aged Midwesterners looking for more crew or passengers)
http://browncoats.serenitymovie.com/serenity/index.html?fuseaction=gro
ups.main&searchby=F
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Hey you! :)
There are promoting it heavily on SciFi (7pm Fridays especially) and on Apple.com and imdb.com, just to name a few.
TV Guide has not forgotten us either, and had a blurb in the July 11th week issue about the show being shown on SciFi.
Mainstream to come, I guess, but they've chosen some very smart outlets.
-----------
They were little geisha dolls with big heads that WOBBLED!
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In two words - Staying Power.
You see, most 'movies' these days are re-makes of badly done re-makes of formerly regurgitated CRAP, they're complete and utter garbage and the execs producing them know it, so they build up maximum 'buzz', *buy* rave reviews from industry sychophant 'reviewers' and get saturation coverage in the media, in hopes of getting as many people as possible in the theatre on opening day and selling the turd to them quickly before they can go spill to all thier friends what total CRAP it is...
We clear ? - that is absolutely how the bigtime studios roll out movies these days, let's not deny the obvious here.
What stuns me is of course the abysmal and unforgiveable stupidy of a populace that simply accepts this, and falls for it, over and over again.
The third and fourth weeks are the real tale of a films quality - if they're still coming in at 70-80% of the initial opening score, you've struck gold.
But what DOES happen to most industry excretions once word gets around of what go-se they are?
They drop dead, and hopefully disappear forever.
Browncoats ain't like that... f*x sabotaged, shunned, and dropped our show down a very deep hole, and we got some shovels and dug it the hell out.
And it's not just us, because most of the people who we do introduce to the show, it's like CRACK, dude... "C'mon, just watch an episode... the first one's free..."
Probably because of severe entertainment deficiency in a world of vomit-worthy 'reality' shows...
Think about how easily, and how firmly, watching just a few episodes of the DVD set hooks someone in, and consider just how much 'engagement' of the viewers a movie is gonna have.
If the movie is as a good as the DVD set (And it damned well better be, Joss!) then I don't think we have too much to worry about.
My concern would be if the studio sets some ludicrous version of that "goal" expecting instantaneous payback - imma cynic about these things, but I'd like to know their *exact* conditions... you know ?
Honor em for makin the BDM ? sure..
Trust em ? not so much..
We can do $80Mil... not at all an unrealistic expectation, save for the 'conditions' thing mentioned above.
So I am not concerned, and hopefully this good example might cause some studio execs to start considering QUALITY instead of re-made,re-made,re-make CRAP... 
Cause that's gettin OLD, folks.
-Frem
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Quote:
Originally posted by embers:Quote:
Originally posted by rklenseth:
Entertainment Weekly quotes a Universal exec saying that Serenity will have to make over 80 million dollars in order to be considered for sequels.
is that US opening weekend, or does it include world wide and/or DVD sales...
{/QUOTE]
Probably the opening weekend? because there is no way it won't make 80 mil - its not just DVD, its also licensing rights. Even with a cast of unknowns and a totally crap story and lame effects a movie can make a lot of money. It is a business you know, and Hollyweird has been turning out crap movies and making a bundle for many decades.NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by Cedric:
[B
Now, on the subject of 80 million dollars, what is that in captain dummy talk? How much is that compared to what other movies have pulled in? Could someone who knows more about the movie biz explain this one?
"You can't take my show from me,
Because I've got the DVD."
www.BedlamBards.com
Ballad of Joss: http://mp3-postcards.com/listen/?888
$80 million worldwide isn't a whole lot. Most movies without huge stars manage about 25% international, compared to domestic. So, if Firefly can manage that 25% international, it would have to make about $65 million domestic to reach $80 million worldwide ($65 domestic with 25% international would be $16.25 for a total of $81.25).
So, looking at a basic industry trend drop of 40% from weekend to weekend, how likely is a $65 million take for Serenity?
I would expect that the forcast for Serenity's opening weekend will be about $30 million. That's not great compared to things like Star Wars or Lord of the Rings, but it's what the Dukes of Hazzard managed this past weekend.
So if you take $30 million for week one, and have that drop 40%, that's a take of $18 million in weekend two. Throw in $5 million for the weekdays in between, and by the end of weekend 2 (Oct 9), the BDM would be at $53 million. Take another 40% drop for weekend 3 ($10.8 million) and add in $2.5 million for the weekdays in between, and at the end of weekend 3 (Oct 16), Serenity would be sitting at $66.3 million. 25% of that would be $16.57 million (assuming a 25% international box office), and that would give Serenity a worldwide box office of $79.87 million. At the end of three weeks, that $80 million is attainable without a huge weekend.
Now-- having said that, genre and cult movie have had a tendancy to drop more than 40%. The first X-Men movie had about a 60% drop from weekend 1 to weekend 2. If Serenity suffered 60% drops, then it would limp to that $80 million worldwide after about 7 weeks.
If you look at last year's same period, Shark Tale throws things out of whack a good bit, because, as much as I would for it to, Serenity isn't like to do the kind of business that Shark Tale did. But, the #2 movie that weekend was Ladder 49. It had a $22 million opening weekend, and ended with a Domestic total of $74.5 million. It pulled in a ratio of 35% internationally, for a take of $26 million (probably owing to Travolta), which gave it a worldwide take of $100.5 million. I don't think that those numbers are unrealistic for Serenity.
Ladder 49 was reviewed decently, but not great. I've seen Serenity, and while I loved it, I expect that a lot of the big reviewers, having not seen Firefly, will give it 2.5 stars, or a B review. Which is about what Ladder 49 got. Serenity has the built in fan base, and Ladder 49 had the fan bases of Travolta and Joaquin Phoenix. It opened at $22 million and had about a 40% drop off to $13 million in weekend 2, with about $5 million in weekday earnings between.
I'd love to say that Serenity will have that huge $60 million opening weekend, but I just don't see it. Not unless all browncoats go to see it 2 or 3 times EACH DAY of that opening weekend. And while there is a lot of passion out there, that's expecting a lot. I think a realistic opening weekend total is $25-30. It wouldn't surprise me for it to have a $15-18 million Friday, with a big drop off on Sat and Sun. But if it can pull $30 million, and then avoid the dreaded 60% drop-off, then I'm betting by the end of Oct, we'll have a sequel in pre-production.
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As a general rule, it's expected by everyone in movies that a film will drop off 50% in its second week. This is normal. What is abnormal is a movie like Wedding Crashers which has yet to drop off more than 24% in any of its four weeks out.
(Note: A great source for all kinda of box office data is boxofficemojo.com)
So, I've created (and now adjusted) some box office predictions for Serenity.
1.3 million people watched Firefly on scifi last Saturday. If they each go and bring a friend (not a stretch, I watched and am bringing 12 friends), that's 2.6 million tickets. Say they pay an average of $7 per ticket. This becomes 18.2 million to open. That's just on the fan base. I'm also going to factor in another $15 million dollars. This is based on the opening week gross for Stealth. If they can bring out $15mil worth of people for that film, Serenity should have no trouble picking up that number. Giving us the conservative opening weekend estimate of $33.2 million. Now, let's say Serenity is good (and we will because that's what everyone is saying), and we lose only 30% of the audience. That gives us in the range of $22mil the second week. And say it happens again. $16mil for week 3. But then it starts to taper off. $8mil for week 4, $4mil for week 5. That gives us a total of $83mil domestically alone. That doesn't even include the worlwide market or secondary sales.
But this all sounds a bit dubious, right? based on serenity holding long term projections above the norm 50% dropoff. Well, let's look at the release schedule.
On Sept 23rd
Tim Burton's the Corpse Bride (which I kinda expect to tank)
Waiting (A Comedy with Ryan Reynolds and Anna faris. Probably not much staying power)
Sept 30th
Serenity
The Greatest Game Ever Played (A feel-good Disney Golf movie. Like anyone is going to see that).
Oct 7
In Her Shoes (A Cameron Diaz comedy)
Two For the Money (Al Pacino drama)
Both not a big threat to Serenity (if base don genre alone).
Oct 14
Elizabethtown (Orlando Bloom among others)
Domino (Keira Knightley). These could cut into Serenity a bit, which is why I predicted a bigger drop off.
Oct 21
Jennifer Aniston and Kurt Russel have separate movies coming out, in addition to Doom. This is the weekend I see Serenity really tailing off.
So, while I have no official experience regarding movies, I think these estimates are realistic enough that we could get a domestic gross of $80mil, before worldwide and secondary sales are added in (Serenity, like Star Trek, is going to make a killing on the secondary market).
"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com
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