Hitchhiker's Modest Take Worrysome?

POSTED BY: Barclay
UPDATED: Sunday, May 15, 2005 16:59
VIEWED: 5964
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BARCLAY

Sunday, May 8, 2005 7:44 PM

So after two weekends, Hitchhiker's Guide had made $35 million domestically, and $43M worldwide, with an estimated budget of $50M. Meaning that barring a similar third weekend before Star Wars opens, it's not likely to turn a profit before it reaches the video market (which I think it should prosper in... think Star Trek movies).

So, given this (and this is pure speculation), I don't think we're incredibly likely to see any sequel(s).

So here's my question to you wise people, is this an indicator of possible non-success for Serenity as well? Or is Serenity mainstream enough it will succeed regardless?

SIMONWHO

Sunday, May 8, 2005 8:07 PM

Well, actually it should still make it into profit at the cinema (the studio should get around 50% of the gross so given the normal gradual descent of income, it'll make it to a bit over $100m).

I think sequels will depend on DVD sales. The Chronicles of Riddick, a genuine flop on release, did huge business on DVD, enough to make a sequel viable. The question is whether the studio thinks the audience for the film is going to grow or not. H2G2 has been around for over 2 decades and most people have heard of it whereas Firefly is pretty new and not in the mainstream to the same extent. So whereas pretty much everybody that was going to see Hitchhikers had already heard of it, there's still a large untapped audience for Serenity.

But then again, I predict a box office that will make the question utterly moot and Universal straight on the phone to Joss, asking for more. Not super smash big but big big.

SWITCHY

Sunday, May 8, 2005 8:10 PM

I in no way mean to be a naysayer but I think we should prepare for a slow build for Serenity and not expect too much on opening weekend. If it's grade A sci-fi the people will come through word of mouth but it takes a lot of money and huge name recognition to have a monster opening.

TRASK43

Sunday, May 8, 2005 8:11 PM

Its not great news given that there is obvious similarities between the films (hardcore fanbase, sci fi films looking to get the general movie going audience in) but I think one of the decisive factors that could make or break serenity are the reviews.

Generally the reviews for hicthhikers have been very mixed, hopefully serenity gets some good press and good reviews or our shiny sequels could be in trouble.

www.summer-glau.com

EMBERS

Sunday, May 8, 2005 8:15 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Barclay:
So after two weekends, Hitchhiker's Guide had made $35 million domestically, and $43M worldwide, with an estimated budget of $50M.

So here's my question to you wise people, is this an indicator of possible non-success for Serenity as well? Or is Serenity mainstream enough it will succeed regardless?

from what I can tell Hitchhiker has two huge problems:
1. they lost the sci-fi crowd because the show was too Python-esque...not enough action, so a lot of people were disappointed and felt it was slow.
2. they lost their own fans because of some alternations from the book to the movie (and I don't mean a few fans, evidently majority of the big fans were disappointed).

but this cannot effect 'Serenity'
1. 'Serenity' HAS the action, the great space battle and believable ship with a really interesting sci-fi world.

2. 'Serenity' will be thrilling to the fireflyfans so they will keep the core audience and that audience will continue to spread the word.

But it is true: that second or third week is key.

When I met Joss at WizardWorld he said that the first weekend was Universal's responsibility (their promotion and advertising),
but the SECOND weekend is his (Joss') responsibility, having a story that is exciting enough and involving enough so that word of mouth is good and people return to the theater.

Personally, I think we have that!

MISGUIDED BY VOICES

Sunday, May 8, 2005 8:31 PM

Well, its UK opening was pretty good (and appropriate) at 4.2 million. It has Kingdom of Heaven against it this weekend, but there is probably a long-term market as many of the fans of the book and TV series from the first runs will now be in their 30s and 40s, traditionally not people that hit the opening weekends.

Its tail off of 50% plus is the more worrying figure, although if it can steady out it should hit $75-100 US and definitely $100 worldwide.

"I threw up on your bed"

SERGEANTX

Sunday, May 8, 2005 9:02 PM

I don't quite get the obsessive focus on opening week ticket sales. I rarely go to a movie on opening week. I usually hang back, wait to read a few reviews and then go see it when I can have a little elbow room. I'd think that's true of a large chunk of potential Serenity fans, at least the ones not already familiar with the series.

Besides, a movie with as many characters as Serenity, and (I'm assuming) the depth and subtlety of a Joss Whedon script, will take a little longer to get it's due. I'd expect reviews to be quite good for the movie and those have a pretty big effect on the non-opening week sales.

I don't keep up with the box-office sportscasting stuff, but didn't the first Matrix movie take a while to catch on? I'd look for something like that for Serenity.

SergeantX

"Dream a little dream or you can live a little dream. I'd rather live it, cause dreamers always chase but never get it." Aesop Rock

EMBERS

Sunday, May 8, 2005 9:29 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SergeantX:
I don't quite get the obsessive focus on opening week ticket sales. I rarely go to a movie on opening week.

and I'm guessing you miss a lot of films,
because they have disappeared from the theater,
and you figure...no big loss...couldn't have been very good.

THAT is the problem:
if 'Serenity' does not have good first week numbers then it will be immediately replaced w/another film the next week.
First week numbers is what keeps the movie running so that people who 'hang back' can catch it later...
In fact a really good first week means that many theaters that didn't even get it that first week may get it the following week.

Really bad first week numbers can mean a film disappears and ends up being shown on airplanes,
and on to DVD. Which is NOT the desired result for Serenity

but again, I don't think we need to feel that 'Hitchhiker's' problems are in any way analogous to what the reaction to our BDM might be.

WHOISRIVER

Sunday, May 8, 2005 9:36 PM

This post is probably going to irk some people here, given it's from me... But...

I have to be honest. I don't expect great reviews across the board for Serenity.

For a start, most professional film reviewers will last recognise Joss's name from Alien 4 (he wrote it) -- and that was a mess of a movie. They will also likely see the publicity blurb from Universal, which mentions he's the creator of Buffy. Buffy has a huge stigma of cheesy teenage crap attached to it, unfortunately.

Which this taken into account, I expect a lot of reviewers to go in with bad expectations. Some will be turned around by the style of dialog, but the problem is not everybody gets Joss's style of writing. Cracking a joke whilst badness is happening? That makes films very cheesy to a lot of people.

So, honestly? I think it's going to get a critical panning from a lot of reviewers.

*BUT*

So did Star Wars. There's actually many examples of films getting a critical example, but still taking a LOT of money.

What really matters here is two things: marketing and word of mouth. Word of mouth is going to make or break Serenity - it really, really is.

Serenity could well have a very slow opening weekend, but then pick up the following weeks. The problem is if the open weekend looks bad, cinemas will take it off.

Really... Serenity needs *YOU* to promote it. And Universal.

If it gets a fairly good chunk of opening weekend money, with word of mouth it could well be a box office smash the 2nd week. But that really is counting a lot of chickens - the moutain to get to that stage is *HUGE*.

We might appreciate Joss Whedon's scripts, but a lot of people don't.

SERGEANTX

Sunday, May 8, 2005 10:00 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by embers:
Quote:
Originally posted by SergeantX:
I don't quite get the obsessive focus on opening week ticket sales. I rarely go to a movie on opening week.

and I'm guessing you miss a lot of films,
because they have disappeared from the theater,
and you figure...no big loss...couldn't have been very good.

THAT is the problem:
if 'Serenity' does not have good first week numbers then it will be immediately replaced w/another film the next week.
First week numbers is what keeps the movie running so that people who 'hang back' can catch it later...
In fact a really good first week means that many theaters that didn't even get it that first week may get it the following week.

Really bad first week numbers can mean a film disappears and ends up being shown on airplanes,
and on to DVD. Which is NOT the desired result for Serenity

but again, I don't think we need to feel that 'Hitchhiker's' problems are in any way analogous to what the reaction to our BDM might be.

Yeah, you're right. I don't go to see many movies at the theater. Two or three a year at most. But, jeez, if all they care about is opening weekend how did sleeper hits like the Matrix ever make it? All initial receipts will reflect is how appealing the movie is to audiences who know nothing about it. And the thing is, at it's heart, Serenity is a very different kind of movie. It'll take awhile for word of mouth and thoughtful reviews to catch up with it.

It may be the case that that won't happen before theaters start getting nervous and replace it with the latest Adam Sandler movie, but that's a pretty pathetic scenario. The movie is almost certain to stick around for two weeks at most theaters regardless of how badly it opens, and I predict that's when things will start kicking in.

SergeantX

"Dream a little dream or you can live a little dream. I'd rather live it, cause dreamers always chase but never get it." Aesop Rock

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