competition for serenity on release day

POSTED BY: est120
UPDATED: Tuesday, March 29, 2005 08:24
VIEWED: 6498
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YT

Monday, March 28, 2005 8:45 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Tomanta:
The first weekend is not a problem, the fanbase is large enough to support it.

How many fans are in the fan base?
If tickets are $10 each, how many tickets will each fan have to buy to make the opening weekend a success?

Keep the Shiny Side Up . . . (wutzon) Rolling Stones, "Tumbling Dice", from "Exile On Main Street"

SOUPCATCHER

Monday, March 28, 2005 9:56 AM

Tomanta: Sounds good. And looking at the schedule, there's not much that should draw business away from Serenity the second, third, and fourth weeks.

YT: It's funny you should ask. I was playing around a few weeks ago and cranked through some numbers. We need to average 80 tickets sold per showing on Friday and Sunday and 120 tickets per showing on Saturday.

(Whole shitload of assumptions went into those calculations. Backwards engineering with minimal expected accuracy. Excellent precision. Lousy accuracy.).

Assumptions
Cost of ticket: $6.25 (boxofficemojo 2005 number)
Number of screenings per theater: 5
Number of theaters opening weekend: 3000 *
Target goal for Friday/Sunday opening weekend: 7.5 million **
Target goal for Saturday opening weekend: 11 million **
Target goal for opening month: 70 million ***
Target goal for domestic US run: 85 million ****

* about what Constantine, Sin City, and Sahara are opening/opened with.

** based on general observation that if x = friday box office, saturday is often 1.5x and sunday is often x.

*** based on HSX (opening weekend)*2.8 is a decent predictor of first month's box office

**** I was thinking we'd have to make 100 million but I remembered numbers from people wired into the industry (can't remember which thread) going as low as 70 million so I split the difference. Also, most of the take is in the first month (anywhere between 70 - 95 % based on ad hoc observation) so I just pulled a number somewhere in the middle on that one.

Mucho rounding. I expect I'm off by an order of magnitude. Slap a factor of safety on it. Good enough for government work.

YT

Monday, March 28, 2005 10:28 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SoupCatcher:
Target goal for Friday/Sunday opening weekend: 7.5 million **
Target goal for Saturday opening weekend: 11 million **

Seems you & I think alike, as to the number we need from opening weekend. I think the fan base is way too small to generate this number. We need Universal to market the BDM. I hope they put the date in the trailer.

Keep the Shiny Side Up . . . (wutzon) Sarah McLachlan, "Building a Mystery", from "Surfacing"

RIVERGIRL

Monday, March 28, 2005 12:30 PM

.

"Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government."

what is this from??

and on topic I plan on going at least opeing day and the 2nd weekend

Also, I can kill you with my brain.

TOMANTA

Monday, March 28, 2005 2:27 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rivergirl:

.

"Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government."

what is this from??

Monty Python & The Holy Grail.

"Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government."

ZEEK

Monday, March 28, 2005 5:41 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by dietcoke:
I think everyone who goes should wear something Fireflyish so we can all seat together like one big happy extended family.

Granted I want to do that myself, but this is the type of reaction I get from "normal people" when I mention Firefly. They think it's a cult movie for mega-nerds. That is not going to bring in joe moviegoer. The best we can hope for is strong word of mouth after opening weekend. If we get even 1% of the average market and they love it that can really blossom the numbers for the second weekend.

SOUPCATCHER

Tuesday, March 29, 2005 1:15 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by YT:
Seems you & I think alike, as to the number we need from opening weekend. I think the fan base is way too small to generate this number. We need Universal to market the BDM. I hope they put the date in the trailer.

The one thing I left out (in an effort to be overly pessimistic) was any subsequent box office success from word of mouth. I actually think the movie will have more staying power than some of the more recent first-month-and-out openers. But I didn't want to throw that into the numbers. There's a nagging voice at the back of my head that tells me I have too much faith in Joss' ability to get his vision across. That voice is very quickly shouted down, but it crops up on occasion.

Hence the conservative estimates.

The main thing is to do our best the second, third and fourth weeks and let the accountants sort it out.

BLUEBOMBER

Tuesday, March 29, 2005 8:24 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Zeek:
this is the type of reaction I get from "normal people" when I mention Firefly. They think it's a cult movie for mega-nerds. That is not going to bring in joe moviegoer. The best we can hope for is strong word of mouth after opening weekend. If we get even 1% of the average market and they love it that can really blossom the numbers for the second weekend.

Remember "Sideways," an "indie" film with very little marketing and only a fraction of the budget most big studio projects get, has been getting a lot of attention in the past couple of months. And "Pirates of the Caribbean," which everyone thought was gonna crash and burn (pirate movies almost never get greenlighted) turned out to be one of the top-grossing movies that year.

I know that those are only two rare examples; exceptions to the rule. My point is -- it can happen. The BDM is gonna rock the box office.

When I think about it, though, I am actually a little relieved the release date got pushed back. Not having to go up against "Star Wars: Episode 3" is DEFINITELY a good thing.

As for dressing "Firefly-ish," I'm all for it. I would've dressed up for "ST: Nemesis" too if I'd have gotten my costume in time. I wonder where I can find me a sheperd's outfit... or maybe a pair of tightpants?

"Mwah ha ha...Mine is an evil laugh. Now die."

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