What we do with despots
POSTED BY: SignyM
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 17, 2005 19:33
VIEWED: 7760
PAGE 6 of 9
Oh wow. Your worst-case scenario is so much ROSIER than mine! (Is there an icon for popeyes???) My worst-case scenario, which is not restricted to us ignoring Uzbekistan but all "tyrannical" nations in the Mideast, goes something like this-
Saudi Arabia falls to Wahhabism (I know that's not what they call themselves but I can't remember their real name).
Iran, under protection of China and Russia, takes over southern Iraq.
Syria and Uzbekistan, as the two secular governments (that I know about) decide to make common cause in their anti-Americanism- just out of sheer cussedness. Alternately, the Uzbekistan government falls and sides with Afghan Taliban.
Pakistan decides to throw its lot in with China.
Eventually, only Yemen, Qatar, UAE, and northern Iraq will have any friendly dealings with us. It's not a pretty sight. So...what then? I mean- how does that affect us? Your thoughts, please. Don't be shy with your imagination.
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Then I think you’d be looking at World War III. The US and Britain, probably also Western Europe in general, aren’t likely to allow Iran to invade Iraq, and I don’t think China and Russia would protect them. What does China and Russia have to gain that is worth risking war with the West in backing an Iranian invasion of Iraq?
Saudi Arabia is already Wahhabist, and if Iran were ballsy enough to invade Iraq, the Saudis are likely to believe, perhaps accurately, that they’ll be next or on the list somewhere. Saudi Arabia will likely side with whoever is against Iran. Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and Israel will probably side with the West. Turkey will also side with the West. As far as the former Soviet Asian nations, like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, etc, you could probably flip a coin and get as accurate prediction as anyone could say, but my guess is they would want to stay out of it. Syria is in a bad place. Geographically, they don’t have a strategic position, if Turkey sides with the West as they are likely to do. An Iranian invasion of US backed Iraq would likely be very concerning to them, since they wouldn’t want to get drawn into something where they are essentially fighting a four front war. I can’t see Syria getting into it, unless they really believed they would be protected by Russia or China. But I can’t imagine why Russia or China would go that far.
Basically, I think Iran would not invade Iraq, but Middle Eastern countries have done stranger things. Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait was considered, even by Middle East politicians, to be the one of the dumbest military movies in history.
Although, honestly, I’ve never really thought about it.
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I've been staying on the sidelines b/c I'm curious as to what you two hash out.
Rue
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Please continue this discussion guys. I'm learning a great deal just ghosting.
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YOU know, I haven't thought about this either, so I guess we're both in new territory. I wasn't thinking about Iran invading Iraq- more like Iran and Iraq forming a coalition, with Iran being the senior partner. But assuming that we're talking about an invasion.... hmmm...
Iran and Iraq are both Shia. If they made common cause, Sunni nations would probably form an instantaneous bloc in the face of an overt Shia threat: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan and southern Afghan Taliban. Bahrain (Shia majority) would probably get sucked in on the Iran/Iraq side, and so might Syria (Shias in power). You might even see some nations -like Iraq and Afghanistan- fracturing.
The region is divided by ethnic (Arab/ non-Arab), religious (Sunni/Shia), political (pro/anti-American) language and other "identity" factors that do NOT neatly line up with each other, so exactly how things polarize would depend on which kind of bloc formed first, but given the specter of Iran plus Iraq, the primary response would be Sunni.
But... and this is important... while you've done a great job detailing who would land on what side, you have not convinced me why WE should care. What does it matter to us who sits in the seats of government in the Mideast, and why should we and the EU even get involved? Why don't we just let them sort it out, and if it means a rather long period of instability... well.. so what?
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Finn- I'm not going to pile on you if you say the most obvious thing that comes to everybody's mind. Actually, I'm trying to get past this point.
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Hello??? I'm not going jump you, screaming RUNNING DOG IMPERIALIST PIG!!! (Oh wait...dog... pig.... does that work?)
Can we get past this point please?
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I've been visiting with my sister all weekend in Florence. She is on leave before she deploys to Iraq. This is the last time I'll see her for a while, so I wanted to spend as much time with her as possible. I'll write a response tonight. Right now I have to go to the lab.
Quote:I think the preferred term is ‘dog.’ Some Greek woman in London told me ‘Americans are imperialist dogs who should be killed like dogs.’ Radical European Anti-Americanism! It’s so much fun.
Originally posted by SignyM:
Hello??? I'm not going jump you, screaming RUNNING DOG IMPERIALIST PIG!!! (Oh wait...dog... pig.... does that work?)
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I hope your sister comes home safe. Looking forward to your reply.
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