Will Toy Story 5 hit a Billion?
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Thursday, July 23, 2026 12:36
VIEWED: 639
PAGE 3 of 3
... and after all that wait for Moana...
$43,000,000 Opening Weekend.
Womp, womp.
$95 Million worldwide on a $250 Million budget.
In past years, anything making the production budget on opening weekend was a coin flip that it would eventually break even or make money. If anything didn't reach at least 80% of the production budget after opening weekend, it had ZERO chance of breaking even.
Disney is going to take another MAJOR loss on this one.
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I'm rooting HARD for the Odyssey to fail, but in another episode of "What the Hell is Hollywood Doing?", they just upped the theater count of Moana by 325 theaters to an even 4,200 and Odyssey opens in only 3,919 theaters.
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Deadline said that They Odyssey was going to make $200 Million worldwide, but it also said that Moana was going to make $130 Million worldwide and it only made $95 Million.
I know we've had a few rough years at the box office, but $200 Million isn't all that impressive. I don't know what they're celebrating about already. That would amount to somewhere around $400 Million at the end of weekend 2, and likely around $500 Million by the end of weekend 3. It only makes more money than that with really good legs, and I don't think it's going to have a ton of repeat viewings at over 3 hours long.
For comparison's sake, 2019's Joker made $247 Million on opening weekend worldwide, and with excellent legs throughout, it ended up grossing over a Billion worldwide on only a $50 Million budget.
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July 12th:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
$879 Million in 24 days for TS5.
It's running out of gas now, but $120 Million probably won't be too hard to get if international money is still coming in at any significant amount.
If it crosses a Billion, it won't be by much. But I'm saying it's got at least a 60% shot of crossing it now.
I haven't been tracking the internationals for Toy Story 5 (which are now 52.6% of the gross at $477,544,993), and Bruce always seems to come up with "found" money for anything close to a Billion Dollars... especially if it's a Disney movie, so I still don't want to make any solid predictions about it.
That being said, 7 days later and we're only at $908,463,559.
$29 Million in one week, with only one weekend left to go before the new Spider-Man movie comes in and takes a huge bite out of everything else, including the Odyssey???
I dunno man...
If that wasn't a typo last week and I really said I thought it had a 60% shot of breaking a billion, I'm flipping that around right now. If in 2 or 3 days there hasn't been another $10 to $30 million mysteriously added for international numbers, I think I'm going to go with about an 80% chance that it doesn't break a Billion.
And by next weekend if that's the case and nothing has improved, I'm going to give it a 100% failure rate on hitting the Big B.
Because any percentage of $29 Million worldwide over the next week isn't going to be enough to ever make it cross that threshold.
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Aaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnndddddddddd there it is...
The magical couch cushion money that both Disney and/or near $1 Billion movies always get...
$959,252,244
Well now I just have no idea anymore.
That was a MASSIVE $51 Million dollar find out of left field at a time when TS5 was only grossing $14 Million over it's 5th weekend.
If it hits a billion and I'm wrong now, I'm not counting that as a loss.
Everybody knows they find mystery money late in these types of runs, but It's usually a few million here and a few million there. I may have seen that go to $10 Million or more in one jolt only 2 or 3 times over the 2 years I was tracking every movie in the top 100.
The one time that it was ever this big was when The first part of the final Mission Impossible suddenly gained $250 Million overnight and then it was all removed a day or two later and nobody ever gave any explanation why.
If this mystery money doesn't similarly disappear, TS5 may very well easily make the $41 Million still necessary to cross a Billion. It shouldn't even be a challenge at this point.
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Nope. That money didn't magically disappear the next day like the Mission Impossible money did. Every dime of it appears to still be there.
Well... unless that changes, this question now has it's answer.
Yes. Toy Story 5 will absolutely hit $1 Billion worldwide.
On a side note...
Big Congratulations on everybody involved in Michael. I had heard some things about it over the last few months, and though it biographies and documentaries about anybody aren't my thing, I heard it was good and people were seeing it.
I didn't realize it was $1.1 fucking Billion Dollars good.
Wow.
Shame that it ran out of gas just right now.
There is such a small gap between Michael and Super Mario 2 right now.
Just under One Million dollars.
I dunno though... It's hard to figure it...
They're both still making money, but we're talking less than $50k per day, and quite a bit less on some days. Michael seems to be pulling in much more overall per day now than Mario is.
I don't think it's going to matter because if Toy Story just made $3 Million yesterday after that $51 Million unexplained overseas injection, it's probably going to beat Mario by quite a bit more than a million bucks, but I think Michael may have a chance to come up from behind and steal Mario's cap.
If you think that video is racist in this context it is because you are the racist.
Go fuck yourself.
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