Predicting the future with 90% accuracy... and Iran
POSTED BY: SignyM
UPDATED: Monday, August 31, 2026 23:59
VIEWED: 8354
PAGE 3 of 4
Sometimes You Bomb Iran
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Should America Enact Regime Change in Iran?
Akkad Daily
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
US and Israel hit Iran in coordinated attack
https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-launches-preemptive-strike-agai
nst-iran/
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
They should shoot the Jawas into space.
--------------------------------------------------
Vaccinated People: "You need to get muh vaccination shots that don't work because I got muh vaccination shots that don't work and I'm afraid of people that didn't get muh vaccination shots that don't work because muh vaccination shots that don't work don't work."
Just as true today as it was in December of 2021.
--------------------------------------------------
Be Nice. Don't be a dick.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Spain's Sanchez defies Trump trade threat, compares Iran war to ‘Russian roulette’
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260304-spain-sanchez-defies-trump
-trade-threat-compares-iran-war-to-russian-roulette
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
US President insists Iran must open 'Strait of Trump' in brazen speech
https://www.ladbible.com/news/us-news/donald-trump-strait-of-hormuz-sp
eech-745225-20260328
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Iran has arrested more than 3,000 citizens for ‘collaborating with the enemy’ during war
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/global-affairs/iran-has-arrested
-more-than-3000-citizens-for-collaborating-with-the-enemy-during-war/
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
US military launches new airstrikes to 'punish' Iran for deaths of US troops
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-hormuz-strait-war-july-18-2026-5adf
ef67554652580963684d9a663af2
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Mathematical Fortune-Telling
How well can game theory solve business and political disputes?
Julie J. Rehmeyer
Predicting the future is not very hard, according to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: a little mathematics is all you need. Figuring out how to manipulate a situation to achieve specific aims is a bit less straightforward, but Bueno de Mesquita says his mathematical tools can usually do that, too.
The New York University political science professor has developed a computerized game theory model that predicts the future of many business and political negotiations and also figures out ways to influence the outcome. Two independent evaluations, one by academics and one by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, have both shown that about 90 percent of his predictions have been accurate. Most recently, he has used his mathematical tools to offer approaches for handling the growing nuclear crisis with Iran.
Bueno de Mesquita provides the computer tools, but he relies on political or business experts to identify specific issues, their possible outcomes, and the key players.... Bueno de Mesquita finds that he can get experts to agree on what information the model needs as input, even when the experts disagree sharply on expected outcomes. .... "It's basic information that experts agree on and that you can even find in The Economist."
The details of his study of negotiation options with Iran are classified, but Bueno de Mesquita says that the broad outline is that there is nothing the United States can do to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear energy for civilian power generation. The more aggressively the U.S. responds to Iran, he says, the more likely it is that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. The upshot of the study, Bueno de Mesquita argues, is that the international community needs to find out if there is a way to monitor civilian nuclear energy projects in Iran thoroughly enough to ensure that Iran is not developing weapons.
(A list of accurate but surprising predicitons can be found here)
... The main reason that the model generates more reliable predictions than experts do is that "the computer doesn't get bored, it doesn't get tired, and it doesn't forget," he says. In the analysis of nuclear technology development in Iran, for example, experts identified 80 relevant players. Because no individual can keep track of all the possible interactions between so many players, human analysts focus on five or six key players. The lesser players may not have a lot of power, Buena de Mesquita says, but they tend to be knowledgeable enough to influence how key decision-makers understand the issues. His model can keep track of those influences when a human can't.
www.sciencenews.org/articles/20071027/mathtrek.asp
---------------------------------
Always look upstream.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME