Real World Event Discussions

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
PAGE 1009 of 1104

Wednesday, May 6, 2026 4:19 PM

Russians are increasingly feeling the strain of the war effort after over four years of fighting as casualties approach one percent of Russia’s total population, Russians increasingly bear the financial cost of the war, and the Kremlin intensifies its censorship and mobile data restrictions.[19]

Russian ultranationalist milbloggers, a component of Putin’s main constituency of Russian ultranationalists, are increasingly criticizing the Kremlin and even Putin himself for failing to recognize this reality.[20] A Russian milblogger criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for making its May 4 threat against Kyiv not due to Ukraine’s deep strike campaign against Russian military, defense industrial, and oil infrastructure but rather for the alleged threat against the May 9 Victory Day parade, accusing the MoD of prioritizing “vanity.”[21] The milblogger went on to claim that the Kremlin elected not to include military equipment in the Victory Day parade – the first such instance since 2007 — because the open-air storage lot where the Russian MoD always parks the equipment for the parade would be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes.[22]

Another milblogger called for Russia to better allocate its air defense assets and form regional air defense volunteer units amid Ukraine’s escalating strike campaign.[23] Ukraine’s intensified strike campaign has exploited the large attack surface of Russia’s deep rear and the wide footprint of Russia's infrastructure, particularly defense industrial and oil infrastructure, forcing the Kremlin to make difficult decisions about how to allocate air defense assets. The Kremlin has largely failed to defend against Ukrainian strikes in recent weeks, however, suggesting that existing Russian mitigation efforts are insufficient to address the problems provoking ire in the Russian information space.[24] Putin is refusing to accept the reality of increasing Ukrainian strikes against major Russian cities in the deep rear, and Russians are increasingly bearing the costs of his war as a result.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-may-5-2026
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Wednesday, May 6, 2026 4:26 PM

Ground-based robotic systems are increasingly being used in combat conditions. However, their effectiveness is tightly constrained by one critical factor — stable communications, says adviser to Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, ArmyInform reports.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/05/05/problem-with-ukraines-25000-com
bat-robots-isnt-hardware-its-keeping-them-connected-on-battlefield
/

Troops lay out what defense companies get wrong:
What specific problems need to be solved right now?
Radio communication and mesh networks. In other words, a system that can cover 100 square kilometers with a network of mesh nodes that can provide a stable data connection for equipment to fly or drive through, with redundancy. “This is what I haven’t seen at all, yet.”
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/05/05/ukrainian-troops-lay-out-what-d
efense-companies-get-wrong-and-right
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Wednesday, May 6, 2026 5:12 PM

Trump Changes His Tone On Ukraine And Russia

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/i/196620638/trump-changes-his-ton
e-on-ukraine-and-russia


[ Trump's convoluted explanation for why he stopped selling weapons to Ukraine: he did it to force Ukraine to adapt faster. He did it for their own good. Truthfully, Trump believed Ukraine would fall before now. Because it hasn't, Trump wants to take all the credit for Ukraine's survival. ]

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Thursday, May 7, 2026 6:08 AM

Russia is waging a long war against the West. Switzerland’s spies say it is escalating.

Switzerland’s annual intelligence report names Russia the biggest threat to Europe, lining up with Dutch, German, Danish, and Estonian assessments of Moscow’s preparation for a possible NATO conflict.

By Maria Tril | May 06, 2026

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/05/06/russia-is-waging-a-long-war-aga
inst-the-west-switzerlands-spies-say-it-is-escalating
/

Switzerland's Federal Intelligence Service (NDB) has named Russia the biggest threat to security, stability, and peace in Europe, with ambitions extending well beyond Ukraine, Yevropeiska Pravda reports, citing the agency's annual report and the Swiss government's accompanying assessment.

The report states that Switzerland's security situation has deteriorated significantly in recent years, and again over the past year.

Hybrid campaign against the West

According to the Swiss government, Moscow is waging a broad and long-term confrontation with the West using hybrid means. Russia, Bern says, "seeks to restore its influence in Eastern Europe and as a global player, as well as to establish itself as a great power."

The NDB assesses that this confrontation is intensifying. Sabotage, influence operations, propaganda, and disinformation are listed among the instruments Moscow employs.

The report describes how Switzerland itself is exposed: "Switzerland is directly affected primarily by cyberattacks, prohibited intelligence activity, weapons proliferation efforts, as well as influence and disinformation activity." According to the document, Russia has developed a comprehensive strategy to circumvent the sanctions imposed on it by Western states.

The report also addresses Russia's revisionist intentions, its war economy, mass rearmament, and the threat it poses to Europe.

Doubts about US commitment

The Swiss government notes that since the administration of US President Donald Trump took office last year, it is no longer certain that the United States will continue to defend Europe's security and defense. Many European states are now seeking to strengthen the continent's defense capabilities, the assessment continues, but it remains unclear whether this will be sufficient for deterrence and self-defense.

Beyond Russia, the document points to the threat of terrorism, which the NDB says still emanates primarily from jihadists — particularly individuals or small cells capable of attacking civilians with simple means.

A wider European intelligence consensus

Bern's assessment lines up with a broader picture from European intelligence services. The Netherlands' Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) reports in its 2025 annual report, published on 21 April 2026, that Russia could generate enough combat power to initiate a regional conflict against NATO within a year of the end of hostilities in Ukraine, under circumstances most favorable to Moscow.

While Russia continues to fight in Ukraine, a conventional war against NATO is "virtually ruled out," the Dutch service writes. At the same time, "Russia is already taking concrete preparatory steps for a possible conflict with NATO," according to the MIVD.

The objective of such a conflict, the report says, would not be to defeat NATO militarily. The MIVD states that Moscow would aim to use limited territorial gains to pull NATO apart politically — "if necessary under the threat of nuclear weapons use."

Germany's BND and Bundeswehr have reported that Moscow is preparing for a potential "large-scale conventional war" with NATO by the end of the decade, with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius citing 2028–2029 as a possible timeline. Denmark's FE has warned that Russia could be ready for a regional war against the Baltic states within two years of Ukraine hostilities ending, and a large-scale European war within five. Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Thursday, May 7, 2026 8:18 AM

Just an FYI...


More than 132,441,500 tick tocks have passed since this thread was created on September 12, 2022.








--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Thursday, May 7, 2026 8:21 AM

To put that in other words, you could listen to Kesha's 10 hour Tick Tock loop 3,679 times, 24/7/365 straight in the amount of time since this thread began.



--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Thursday, May 7, 2026 6:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
To put that in other words, you could listen to Kesha's 10 hour Tick Tock loop 3,679 times, 24/7/365 straight in the amount of time since this thread began.



--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

War is the maintenance of civilization. It means killing Russians in Ukraine and Nazis in America, including Trumptards who believe that their version of fascism is not evil. Maintenance never ends.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Thursday, May 7, 2026 6:15 PM

Ukraine rejects Russia's 'Victory Day' truce after Moscow violates Kyiv's ceasefire

by Tim Zadorozhnyy, Asami Terajima, Martin Fornusek

(Updated: May 6, 2026 10:03 pm)

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-rejects-russias-victory-day-truce-
after-moscow-violates-kyivs-ceasefire
/

Ceasefires throughout the war, often proposed by Moscow during religious holidays, have never held. Russia violated the previous truce during Orthodox Easter 10,721 times over a 32-hour period in April, Ukraine's General Staff said.

It is understandable why Kyiv would not accept Moscow's ceasefire proposal, given Russia's recent attacks on civilians across Ukraine and its track record of violating the truce, Jenny Mathers, a senior lecturer in international politics at the U.K.'s Aberystwyth University, said.

"Kyiv's refusal to comply with Russia's request indicates that Kyiv is not fooled by yet another claim of Russian restraint," Mathers told the Kyiv Independent.

"It is also likely to be interpreted by Moscow as a power move by the Ukrainians, which may provoke some respect from the Russians."

'An immitation' ceasefire for Trump

Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian parliament's foreign affairs committee, stressed that Kyiv is "genuinely interested" in an unconditional ceasefire, not "a temporary one whose sole goal is to guarantee for Putin holding military parade," after which Russia would continue launching indiscriminate attacks on civilians.

Merezhko suggested that Putin's only goal in proposing the May 8-9 ceasefire is to avoid "humiliating disruption" of the May 9 military parade in Moscow.

"Such an offer is a sign of weakness and panic on the part of Putin," Merezhko told the Kyiv Independent.

"Putin's nightmare is to have the military parade disrupted or spoiled, which will send to the Russian population a signal that Putin is weak, he is losing the war, and is unable to guarantee safety for Russians."

Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko argued that, whether Kyiv upholds the Moscow-proposed ceasefire or not over May 8-9, Russia won't enforce the truce, and Ukraine would mirror its actions.

But he cast strong doubt on Ukraine's potential strikes on Moscow during the celebrations, explaining that it could provoke Moscow to launch an attack on Kyiv and that "it's a choice between showiness and efficiency," especially since there are targets elsewhere in Russia.

Fesenko stressed that proposing "ceasefires" is a long-time Russian propagandistic tactic, in which Putin appears to be trying to show people in Russia that he is "supposedly a humane peacemaker." The tactic is also likely aimed at gesturing to U.S. President Donald Trump that he supposedly wants peace, according to the expert.

"This is an imitation of a ceasefire, and for Trump, that is enough," Fesenko told the Kyiv Independent, adding that Putin's short-term ceasefire proposals are not an actual truce.

Putin declared readiness for a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine for the May 9 Victory Day celebrations to Trump during a phone call, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on April 29

"I suggested a little bit of a ceasefire, and I think he might do that. He might announce something having to do with that," Trump said during a live-streamed media address from the White House on April 29.

"I asked him about (a truce), even if it's a little ceasefire, there's so many people being killed. It's so ridiculous."

Much more at https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-rejects-russias-victory-day-truce-
after-moscow-violates-kyivs-ceasefire
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Thursday, May 7, 2026 7:16 PM

A Belligerent America Is Foiling Putin’s Strategy

Hanna Notte
May 7, 2026

The 2022 invasion of Ukraine marked only the peak of Russia’s long turn toward revisionism. Since the Cold War ended, Russia has sought to shape Europe’s security architecture and impose its will on smaller neighbors. The Kremlin has also clashed with the United States and Europe at the United Nations and in other multilateral bodies. Its leaders condemned the concept of a rules-based international order as a Western invention meant to cement U.S. hegemony. Styling itself as a vanguard promoting a more multipolar order, Russia sought to increase its own global clout, unencumbered by restraints and rules.

But now it finds itself in the curious position of watching the United States behave more like Russia. On the surface, this may seem a boon for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Instead of contending with a Washington that resists his land grabs and tussles with him in multilateral forums, he has a simpatico U.S. president who appears to ascribe to his might-makes-right worldview. Donald Trump has bashed international institutions in language reminiscent of Russian broadsides, withdrawing the United States from dozens of UN agencies and stripping them of funding while launching a rival conflict-settlement body, the Board of Peace. And he has asserted a right to coerce, even attack, smaller countries in the style of Russia’s bullying.

But in the long term, this turn of events may well be a loss for Russia. Putin’s strategy succeeded only insofar as the United States did not copy it—in other words, as long as Moscow unbound itself from rules while insisting that Washington remain shackled. And in truth, even as Russia decried legacy international institutions, it relied on them for leverage, using its veto power on the Security Council to wield influence. Trump’s actions now threaten to dilute that power. And tied up with the war on Ukraine, Putin has had to stand by and watch as Trump has eagerly used U.S. military force to throttle two key Russian partners, Iran and Venezuela.

The Kremlin is reaping some benefit from Trump’s bludgeoning approach to adversaries. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has allowed Russia to rake in billions in extra oil revenues. And Russia may hope that Trump gets embroiled in one foreign policy disaster after another, ultimately weakening the United States’ global standing and helping Russia outlast the West in Ukraine. But it is far from certain that Putin can durably capitalize on Trump’s hit-and-run belligerence—and a mistake to imagine that if the United States begins to behave more like Russia, that will automatically benefit the Kremlin. The more likely outcome is that Russia will see its global power projection, already weakened by its war against Ukraine, erode further at the hands of the United States.

Much more at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/not-world-russia-wants

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Thursday, May 7, 2026 11:35 PM

Russia Tells Foreign Embassies in Kyiv to Evacuate as It Warns of ‘Retaliatory’ Strikes

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/07/russia-tells-foreign-embassi
es-in-kyiv-to-evacuate-as-it-warns-of-retaliatory-strikes-a92704


. . . For Russia, this week’s ceasefire is widely seen as an effort to shield Victory Day celebrations from any disruption. Moscow is set to hold its annual military parade, though the event has been scaled back and, for the first time in nearly two decades, will not feature military vehicles because of the ongoing threat of Ukrainian drone attacks.

Authorities are also tightening mobile internet restrictions in Moscow and other cities. Russia’s Digital Development Ministry said Thursday that mobile internet will be shut down in Moscow on May 9, and only Wi-Fi and home internet connections will work.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME