Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
PAGE 1008 of 1104
Russian forces in April 2026 suffered a net loss of territory controlled in the Ukrainian theater for the first time since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces lost control of 116 square kilometers in April 2026, not counting areas into which Russian troops may have infiltrated. The Russian rate of advance across the battlefield has been steadily declining since November 2025 as continued Ukrainian ground counterattacks, Ukrainian mid-range strikes, the February 2026 block on Russia’s use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s throttling of Telegram have exacerbated existing problems within the Russian military.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-may-2-2026/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Why Ukraine needs Russia's terminal defeat – not just deterrence
By Lesia Ogryzko
May 2, 2026 7:55 PM
https://kyivindependent.com/why-ukraine-needs-russias-terminal-defeat-
not-just-deterrence/
Five years into the full-scale conflict, it has become clear that the model of strategic deterrence – the "steel porcupine" that Ursula von der Leyen often invokes when speaking about Ukraine – offers no guarantee of resilience and long-term peace.
The "steel porcupine" model assumes that, given Russia's significant resource advantage, Ukraine's only realistic strategy is to build a defense so strong that continued aggression becomes prohibitively costly for Russia.
However, as of 2026, this model is insufficient on its own.
It obscures the reality that Ukraine is being steadily drained of its resources while defending itself and Europe. In a technological war, even a robust defense gradually deteriorates under the pressure of drone-powered high-precision kill-webs and constant attacks, especially when one has to fight against a resource-abundant state.
More at https://kyivindependent.com/why-ukraine-needs-russias-terminal-defeat-
not-just-deterrence/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Weekend Update #183: Ukraine Taking The Initiative?
Long Range and Medium Strike; The Land War; US Boasting About Not Helping Ukraine
Phillips P. OBrien
May 03, 2026
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-183-ukraine-taki
ng
Initiative in any war is a tricky thing to discuss. It is, in a nutshell, the ability to start imposing your actions on the enemy in such a way that you are shaping the direction of and, hopefully, the end result of the war. What we are seeing more and more in this war are signs that the initiative is switching towards Ukraine.
Ukraine Taking The Initiative?
For much of the last two and a half years, Russia has had the initiative. It used masses of its own soldiers to do the vast majority of the attacking and tried to impose itself on Ukrainian civil society through the almost daily bombardment of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Russia did a great deal of damage in this period of its initiative, but also wasted a great deal. Russian casualties, for the ground taken, were out of proportion and seem to have brought the Russian army to an impasse. The ranged bombardment was brutal and destructive, but did not drive Ukraine out of the war and, crucially, was not effective in damaging Ukrainian production to the degree that the Ukrainians could not adjust.
Now there are signs that the Ukrainians are taking the initiative. The battlefront has seen Russian advances all but stop, with the Ukrainians even liberating small parcels of land. This change has been brought about with declining Ukrainian casualties and rising Russian ones, which is an indicator of an initiative change. As such, the land war is resembling more what the Ukrainians want it to be than what the Russians want it to be.
The ranged war is likely showing more adaptation and growth by the Ukrainians, with some notable signs this week. While the Russians are doing what they have been doing, the Ukrainians are broadening their range and targeting. In both long-range and mid-range strike (it's fascinating that more and more people are finally getting the importance of the latter), the Ukrainians are the ones changing things while the Russians keep doing what they have been doing.
I do not want to get too far ahead of myself, but something similar happened in the naval war a few years ago. The Russians started the full-scale invasion with dominance in the war at sea, but the Ukrainians, using newer and better systems and adapting to a changing environment, took the initiative and have since then been more imposing upon than imposed upon.
While the change in the war at sea was quite dramatic, what we see on land and air might not be so binary. However, it is still worth acknowledging. If Ukraine can continue to take the initiative, the Russians, considering the way that they have fought, might struggle to ever take it back.
Much more at https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-183-ukraine-taki
ng
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Ukraine may have invented a new way to down Russia’s 'unstoppable' Kinzhal missiles
By Kollen Post | April 29, 2026 5:27 pm
https://kyivindependent.com/patriots-or-no-patriots-ukraine-may-have-s
olved-the-problem-of-russias-kinzhal-missiles/
. . . the project has stopped a total of 58 Kinzhals from hitting their targets since last summer, including 26 in the first three months of 2026 alone. If confirmed, that would amount to a near-perfect defense against one of Russia's most infamous weapons.
It seems too good to be true. Yet Ukraine’s Air Force has tallied a sharp decrease in Kinzhal attacks in recent months, with only one of these feared hypersonic missiles seemingly making it through the night of March 28.
"In the report, before they found the Kinzhal, it was 'locationally lost' — one of those incomprehensible terms in the army," said Alkhimyk, who provided a video of the crash site they found after the Air Force's morning report. He said Limas had misdirected the Kinzhal in question to a stretch of empty field.
. . . The project is the first of its kind to show real success against advanced CRPAs, the satellite-navigation antennas Russia uses to filter out false signals, Maksym Skoretsky, head of electronic warfare for Ukraine’s Land Forces, told the Kyiv Independent.
"The system really has no analogs," Skoretsky told the Kyiv Independent. "Nobody had managed to carry out suppression of 16- and 32-channel CRPA antennas before this, much less at these kinds of distances."
Skoretsky confirmed Lima's effectiveness "in 58 of 59 applications" against Kinzhals.
Kinzhals are among Russia’s top-line weapons. They are also expensive. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated last February that they cost $15 million each, though other estimates put the price far lower. According to Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi, the cost of a Kinzhal under the latest contracts is roughly $4.5 million. As of Feb. 24, 2026, Ukraine’s Air Force tallied a total of 86 Kinzhals that Russia had fired at Ukraine in the preceding four years.
In May 2023, the entry into service of the first U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems was met by a salvo of Kinzhals, testing what Russia had previously considered an unstoppable object. While Patriot systems, particularly their PAC-3 missiles, proved exceptionally good at intercepting Kinzhals, future supplies of PAC-3 missiles to Ukraine are in jeopardy.
By contrast, Lima stations are Ukrainian-made and do not require expensive single-use hardware, such as PAC-3 interceptor missiles, making them far cheaper to use.
Alkhimyk said that Lima stations have also grown remarkably effective at dragging Shahed drones off course. A sticking point, however, remains the Iskander ballistic missile. The Iskander is closely related to the Kinzhal, but Alkhimyk credits Lima stations with a recent decline in the accuracy of Iskander strikes.
"Usually, before the change in our field, their accuracy was 10 meters. But during recent attacks, they’ve missed by anywhere from 100 meters to over a kilometer," he said.
"If you look at the whole country, if you want to close the whole country — to everything that flies, Shaheds and missiles — you need $1 billion in mechanisms," said Alkhimyk.
"If you want to add defense against ballistics, that’s another $800 million. But $1.8 billion — that’s just two Patriot systems."
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Putin begins to fear a possible assassination attempt using [Russian, not Ukrainian] drones
By Stanislav Pohorilov — 4 May, 09:16
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/04/8032994/
Russian leader Vladimir Putin is concerned about the risk of an assassination attempt on his life by members of the Russian elite using drones.
Source: Russian media outlet Vazhnye Istorii (Important Stories), citing an intelligence report from a European Union country
Quote: "Important Stories has obtained a report by an intelligence service of a European Union country on the real situation in the Kremlin and the condition of Vladimir Putin. The document was provided to us by a source close to the agency that compiled the report."
"Since the beginning of March 2026, the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin have been concerned about a leak of sensitive information and, at the same time, about the risk of a plot or coup attempt against the Russian president. In particular, he fears the use of drones for a possible assassination attempt by members of the Russian political elite."
Details: Due to this, the Federal Protective Service (FSO), whose main task is to ensure the physical protection of top Russian state officials, has significantly increased security measures around Putin.
Sergei Shoigu, former defence minister and current Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation who retains significant influence in the military command, is associated with the risk of a possible coup attempt.
The arrest of his former first deputy Ruslan Tsalikov on 5 March 2026 is seen as a breach of informal security guarantees for the elites, weakening Shoigu's position and increasing the likelihood that he himself could become the target of criminal prosecution.
Several Vazhnye Istorii sources also confirm that Putin's fears of a conspiracy or coup attempt are increasing, which is evidenced not only by strengthened security measures around the Kremlin and other places visited by the Russian leader, but also by certain indirect signs.
For example, an active Federal Security Service (FSB) officer told Vazhnye Istorii that his unit has found it much more difficult to obtain permission for surveillance in non-political criminal cases, because "all equipment has been redirected to monitor the government and other state bodies".
"The extreme level of Putin's fear of an assassination attempt or conspiracy is also indirectly indicated by the fact that this year not a single deputy of the State Duma received an invitation to the Victory Day parade on Red Square," Vazhnye Istorii noted. [Victory Day is a Russian holiday commemorating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, celebrated on 9 May – ed.]
Previously: An explosion was heard on the night of 3-4 May in Moscow about six kilometres from the Kremlin, allegedly due to a drone attack.
Background:
• On 29 April, Yuri Ushakov, an aide to the Russian leader, reported that Putin had held a phone call with US President Donald Trump during which Putin said he is willing to declare a ceasefire on 9 May.
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia does not require Ukraine's response in order to declare a ceasefire by 9 May, adding that the decision would supposedly be taken unilaterally by Vladimir Putin.
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes the Kremlin is seeking a one- or multi-day ceasefire primarily to protect its annual military Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9 May from possible Ukrainian strikes.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Ukraine declares a ceasefire starting May 6 - Zelenskyy
The President responded to Russia’s idea of a ceasefire for Victory Day
By Kateryna Shkarlat | Mon, May 04, 2026 - 22:44
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-declares-a-ceasefire-starting-
may-1777923876.html
"We believe that human life is an incomparably greater value than the celebration of any anniversary. Therefore, we announce a ceasefire starting at 00:00 on the night of May 5–6," Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized.
[ Current Local Time in Kyiv, Ukraine https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/ukraine/kyiv ]
He said that within the time remaining until then, it is realistically possible to ensure the start of a ceasefire. Ukraine will act in a mirror response.
"It is time for the Russian leadership to take real steps to end their war, if the Russian Ministry of Defense believes it cannot hold a parade in Moscow without Ukraine’s goodwill," the president noted.
Russia demands a ceasefire for Victory Day
Last week, Russian leader Vladimir Putin, during a conversation with US President Donald Trump, declared readiness to establish a ceasefire with Ukraine for Victory Day.
Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stressed that Russia is trying to secure its military parade scheduled for May 9.
Earlier today, May 4, Russia’s Ministry of Defense stated that Putin had ordered a ceasefire for May 8–9.
At the same time, the ministry threatened that if Ukraine does not agree to a ceasefire, Russia will carry out a massive missile strike on the center of Kyiv.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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202 pages of SECOND'S blah blah blah.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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A leaked European intelligence report highlights Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasing concern over his personal safety and the safety of his senior officials. Western and Russian opposition sources reported on May 4, citing the intelligence report, that Russian security forces have increased security measures as Putin fears possible assassination attempts, including targeted drone strikes.[1] The intelligence report noted that Putin spends most of his time in underground bunkers in Krasnodar Krai and has stopped going to his residences in Moscow Oblast and Valdai, Novgorod Oblast. The intelligence report also cited sources in Russia familiar with Putin as stating that the recent internet shutdowns in Moscow City were at least partially related to Putin’s security and anti-drone protection.[2] The intelligence report stated that Putin amended Federal Protective Service (FSO) regulations to provide security to 10 high-ranking generals after a December 2025 meeting of security officials in which the officials shifted blame onto each other for the December 22 assassination of Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, the chief of the Russian General Staff’s Operational Training Department, in Moscow City.[3]
ISW has observed corroborating evidence of enhanced security measures for Putin and high-ranking Russian officials. There have been numerous assassinations and assassination attempts against high-ranking Russian officials throughout the war, some of which have been credited to Ukraine, that could be pushing Putin to worry about his safety and the safety of other senior officials.[4] ISW has also observed reports between May 2023 and December 2025 of Russian authorities moving an increased number of short and medium-range air defense systems, including Pantsir-S1 and S-400 systems, near Putin’s Valdai and Moscow City residences.[5] Ukraine has also been increasing the range, intensity, and frequency of its long-range drone strike campaign, including a drone strike against Moscow City on May 4 that damaged the Mosfilm Tower.[6]
ISW has not observed independent evidence to support other aspects of the leaked intelligence report about Putin’s fears of a coup attempt in Russia. The European intelligence report portrayed former Russian Defense Minister and current Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu as “associated with the risk of a coup.”[7] CNN, which obtained the intelligence report, noted that it does not provide evidence to support these claims.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-may-4-2026/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Trump calls Zelenskyy 'tricky,' says Ukraine losing ground
The US president also criticized NATO
By Oleksandra Bashchenko | Tue, May 05, 2026 – 12:57
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/trump-calls-zelenskyy-tricky-says-ukra
ine-1777975039.html
US President Donald Trump said Ukraine is suffering losses on the front line and is holding on only thanks to weapons supplies. He called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “tricky” and recalled a tense meeting in the Oval Office in an interview with Salem News Channel.
Trump on the front: 'They are losing territory'
Trump spoke bluntly about the battlefield situation: “They (Ukraine - ed.) are losing territory,” but clarified that Russia is also taking losses.
He noted that access to weapons is what allows Ukraine to fight: “They fight — because whether the equipment is great or less than great — they're able to fight,” he said.
Weapons via NATO
According to Trump, the supply scheme looks like this: the U.S. sells weapons to NATO, and the alliance then transfers them to Ukraine.
“We sell it to NATO, basically, and they give it out. I’ll say this: they (the Ukrainians - ed.) fight — because whether the equipment is great or less than great — they're able to fight,” he explained.
The reporter added that Ukrainian forces have proven more effective than any army in Europe.
“They are better than anyone in Europe in this fight,” he said. Trump acknowledged that Ukraine’s armed forces are better than those of any US allies in NATO.
Separately, Trump criticized former US President Joe Biden’s aid to Ukraine — in his view, transferring $350 billion in weapons and funds was “just ridiculous.”
Zelenskyy a 'tricky guy'
Speaking about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump called him a “tricky guy.” He said he generally gets along with him, but recalled one exception.
“I like Zelenskyy. I always sort of get along with him, other than for one moment in the White House, which I thought was a little aggressive on his behalf,” Trump said, referring to a meeting in the Oval Office in early 2025.
Frustration with NATO
Trump also spoke sharply about NATO allies.
In his view, the alliance did not support the United States when it was needed.
“When we needed NATO — they weren’t there for us,” he said.
The US president recalled that the United States had previously fully funded NATO and suggested he does not believe in the reliability of allies in the event of a major war.
“If we ever have a big one (war - ed.) or a bigger one — I don’t believe they’ll be there for us,” he added.
Meanwhile, a dispute is flaring up in Washington over weapons for Ukraine. Republican Senator Mitch McConnell accused the Pentagon of blocking $400 million in military aid to Ukraine.
According to him, the US Department of Defense is delaying the transfer of an already approved package.
We also wrote that the United States is preparing a new stage of pressure in negotiations on Ukraine: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/us-readies-new-pressure-phase-in-ukrai
ne-1777881443.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Ukraine’s fight against Russia is going better than you might think
The war in Iran looked like a gift for Russia. It hasn’t worked out that way.
By Joshua Keating | May 5, 2026, 5:30 AM CDT
https://www.vox.com/politics/487756/ukraine-russia-war-iran-drones
. . . It’s probably too soon to say Ukraine is winning the war, but at the very least, it doesn’t appear to be losing. . . .
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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