Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
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Russia–Ukraine War: escalation, not stalemate
The apparent stasis of Russia’s war in Ukraine rests on an unstable equilibrium that is driving escalation, not compromise. Russia’s recruitment dilemmas, Europe’s finances and China’s choices will shape its future.
Nigel Gould-Davies
Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia
25th February 2026
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2026/02/russiaukr
aine-war-escalation-not-stalemate/
The fifth year of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine has begun. It is Russia’s longest continuous major war since the 18th century (the 1979–89 Soviet war in Afghanistan was a sideshow in tempo and casualties by comparison). It is also one of the longest wars between neighbours globally since 1945. In 2025, Russia gained less than 1% of Ukrainian territory and lost over 416,000 troops. Given the length, cost and stasis of the war, how likely is it to end soon?
The driver of the war has not changed over the past four years. Russia seeks to subordinate Ukraine, and Ukraine is determined to resist this. These positions remain incompatible. Both states are materially capable of continuing to fight and judge the costs politically tolerable. The war will end only if Russia wins it or accepts that it cannot win. It cannot currently do the first and refuses to do the second. Since it will not scale back its goals, it must scale up the resources it commits to them. This is a strategy of attrition: generating sustained, superior mass and firepower to grind down an enemy. It is the opposite strategy to the initial invasion plan to seize Kyiv in days. Mass has replaced speed.
Russia’s recruitment strains
In an attritional war, the side with more blood and treasure usually wins, where commitment remains equal. But though Russia’s population is over three times larger than Ukraine’s, and its economy over ten times larger, its attrition has so far failed. Ukraine’s remarkable ingenuity and resilience cannot alone explain this, for Russia has the resources to convert into superior mass. Yet so far Moscow has mobilised only a small, though growing, proportion of its total potential strength. This reflects an under-appreciated tension in its strategy. While the Kremlin sees the war as a core interest, it implicitly understands that most of Russian society does not. Few Russians are genuine enthusiasts of the war, though more are willing to profit from it. This has forced the Kremlin to carefully calibrate the pace and means of converting resources into useable force.
This is true above all of manpower. Rather than compel its citizens to fight, Russia pays them lavishly to do so. For the first time in modern history, it is waging a major war with a contract, not a mass conscript army – topped up with criminals, foreign recruits and up to 15,000 North Korean troops. By trading the rate of battlefield progress for stability at home, it has tried to flatten the curve of social strain. The result is not merely attrition but prolonged, constrained attrition.
Russia is approaching an inflection point in recruitment. Battlefield losses have begun to exceed the number of recruits. Quality is also falling: recruiting officers now complain of alcoholics, drug addicts and the destitute. Moscow may sooner or later face the choice of ordering a compulsory mobilisation or accepting decisive failure. In anticipation, it is building a system for issuing mass call-ups. Activating this would be a moment of truth for the regime. The brief ‘partial mobilisation’ it reluctantly imposed in September 2022 provoked widespread anxiety and a large outflow of draft avoiders. The Kremlin wants to avoid repeating, let alone expanding, this precedent.
A second reason for Russia’s failure is Western financial and material support for Ukraine. This now comes overwhelmingly from Europe. By a curious symmetry, Europe’s margin of superiority over Russia – over ten times economically and over three times by population – is almost identical to Russia’s over Ukraine. It provides a much smaller proportion of
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THE PURGE: Shoigu’s "Gray Cardinal" Arrested! Ex-First Deputy Defense Minister Tsalikov in Custody
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
THGR, SECOND... I'm not arguing with hopium and bullshit bc it's impossible to argue with stupid. Either Russia will win, or it won't. I don't expect it to be soon, but I'm certain it will happen, and if it does all your outbursts and psyops will have been for nothing.
And to reiterate what I posted a long time ago: If anyone reaches for nukes first, it'll be the west.
erous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
You're beginning to change your tone a bit comrade. At one time you were all in that Russia was winning and going to win it all. You were all in that Russia controlled the Black Sea and always would. Now they don't dare go there.
This whole thread and several others were/are, about explaining to you how you were/are, wrong. Shit, I think you still post that Ukraine started the war. Some bullshit about Ukraine wanting to join NATO. The thing is, is that before Russia invaded Ukraine the first time 70% of Ukrainians didn't want to join NATO. Would you care to correct why Russia invaded?
Without you posting propaganda religiously about how Russia was/is winning, these threads wouldn't exist. SECOND and I respond to your posts by posting facts showing we are right and you were/are, always wrong.
tick tock and don't forget to hit subscribe.
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HUGE BLACK SEA KA-27 STRIKE: RUSSIA LOST CONTROL Vlog 1339: War in Ukraine
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Why was Ukraine defending Ukraine so cheap? And why is attacking Iran so expensive?
More kaboom per buck in Ukraine. ONE BILLION DOLLARS goes seven times farther in Ukraine than in Iran
Attacking Iran versus defending Ukraine
Paul Krugman | Mar 5, 2026
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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(News reporting concentrates on soldiers, but maintenance and factory workers are MORE important to winning a war. Millions and millions of Ukrainians showing up at work 5 days per week and being competent at their job is even more vital than 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers maiming/killing a few hundred Russians per day.)
How Ukraine is trying to fix a critical shortage
By Luca Léry Moffat, Dominic Culverwell
March 6, 2026 1:00 PM (Updated: March 6, 2026 3:56 pm)
https://kyivindependent.com/tinder-for-the-labor-market-ukraine-eyes-i
ts-next-generation-of-blue-collar-workers/
Since Dmytro Volynets studied mechanical engineering at university over a decade ago, he's worked in retail, call centers, and on a warehouse floor.
Unable to join the army due to a spine injury, the 35-year-old has struggled to find a coherent career path related to his studies — even as several industries offering high paying jobs face labour shortages.
In large part because of Russia's full-scale invasion, Volynets' story is typical right now in Ukraine — despite possessing some of the highest rates of tertiary education in Europe, the country faces low productivity and a persistent shortage of skilled workers.
Construction, transport, energy, and industry reported critical labor shortages in 2024 and 2025, according to Swiss development organization Helvetas — driven in part by a war now in its fifth year that has disproportionately absorbed the blue-collar workers that Ukraine needs.
Hoping to play a small role in plugging that gap, Volynets is now back in school, taking a six-week vocational training course in which he's learning to operate CNC machines — high-precision metal cutting equipment, used across industries including in Ukraine's burgeoning military sector.
"I can't protect my country as a soldier, but I can make rockets," he says.
Ukraine's skill gap
Labour shortages are not new in Ukraine, the population of which shrank year-on-year since the mid-1990s, according to the World Bank. But Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 caused a precipitous acceleration of this trend — with mobilization and emigration reducing the country's workforce by a whopping quarter, according to one recent study.
Yet paradoxically, the issue faced by businesses today is not always the lack of workers available — but a lack of relevant skills.
"The biggest gap is in blue-collar professions, like plumbers, welders, machine operators, drivers," Michael Shneider, CEO at Kyiv School of Economics, says.
According to the country's economy ministry, over 12 million Ukrainians are economically inactive, and another 1.5 million are stuck in low-productivity jobs. Simultaneously, they estimate that Ukraine will face a shortage of over half a million blue-collar workers in 2027.
That skill shortage could deteriorate further as Kyiv lifts travel restrictions for men. Already, companies like steel plant ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih have reported an exodus of young factory workers after the government revised travel rules for 18-22-year-old men last August.
The talent pool is also drained by military recruiters targeting male-dominated workplaces, like factories, making it harder for companies to find and train new employees. Now, those jobs are in high demand — with repair work necessitated by Russian air strikes and a burgeoning military industry compounding the need for that skillset.
With the country facing a $586 billion reconstruction bill, according to the World Bank, and with the military sector set to play a central role in Ukraine's future economic competitiveness, a lack of builders, laborers, tradesmen, and factory workers could be a fatal bottleneck.
What's being done?
While mobilization and emigration are hard to fix while Russia continues its full-scale invasion, the skills gap still can be.
To get a more granular picture of that gap,
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Why was Ukraine defending Ukraine so cheap? And why is attacking Iran so expensive?
More kaboom per buck in Ukraine. ONE BILLION DOLLARS goes seven times farther in Ukraine than in Iran
Attacking Iran versus defending Ukraine
Paul Krugman | Mar 5, 2026
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
Oh yeah? How long has Ukraine been "fighting" now?
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
THGR, SECOND... I'm not arguing with hopium and bullshit bc it's impossible to argue with stupid. Either Russia will win, or it won't. I don't expect it to be soon, but I'm certain it will happen, and if it does all your outbursts and psyops will have been for nothing.
And to reiterate what I posted a long time ago: If anyone reaches for nukes first, it'll be the west.
THGR:
You're beginning to change your tone a bit comrade. At one time you were all in that Russia was winning and going to win it all. You were all in that Russia controlled the Black Sea and always would. Now they don't dare go there.
You make shit up to "prove" me wrong? Quotes and links, please. You'll be looking a long time bc I never said that.
Quote:Like I said, it's hard to argue with stupid. Since when did "the people" count in Ukraine? "The people" voted for Yanukovich. He was ousted in a CIA/ State Dept coup. "The people" voted for Zelensky, they voted for his peace platform. "The people" might not want to join NATO, but the west was angling to make Ukraine part if NATO, Zelensky was hinting about getting nukes at the Munich Security Conference literally 5 days before the SMO.
This whole thread and several others were/are, about explaining to you how you were/are, wrong. Shit, I think you still post that Ukraine started the war. Some bullshit about Ukraine wanting to join NATO. The thing is, is that before Russia invaded Ukraine the first time 70% of Ukrainians didn't want to join NATO. Would you care to correct why Russia invaded?
https://x.com/DietHeartNews/status/2028837897374253108
Quote:Liar. You and SECOND post religiously whether I post or not.
Without you posting propaganda religiously about how Russia was/is winning, these threads wouldn't exist. SECOND and I respond to your posts by posting facts showing we are right and you were/are, always wrong.
Russia is winning.
Stupid.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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