2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30539
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JAYNEZTOWN

Friday, October 10, 2025 7:08 PM

its a bad year again for indie movies??

Looks as if One Battle After Another will be around 2 million Friday?

2nd Thursday $1,000,000 / $47,833,086

a number of cinemas continue with 'The Long Walk'

Lionsgate's The Long Walk grossed $223K on Wednesday (from 1,930 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $32.71M
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1976379041562407294#m

One Battle After Another (2025) vs. Good Boy (2025) vs. Weapons (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/One-Bat
tle-After-Another-(2025)/Good-Boy-(2025)/Weapons-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Japan toon Demon Slayer has strong Worldwide numbers it did good international but against United States comicbook movies it struggled vs Hollywood blockbusters on the US home turf. However Japanese keep their budgets very low unlike Hollywood's outrageous budgets. The Japanese movie continues to collect money.

Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Infinity Castle (2025) vs. Superman (2025) vs. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Demon-S
layer-Kimetsu-no-Yaiba-The-Movie-Infinity-Castle-(2025-Japan)/Superman-(2025)/Fantastic-Four-The-First-Steps-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

it would seem Fantastic Four First Steps was a franchise that finally did ok

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) vs. Fantastic Four (2015) vs. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Fantast
ic-Four-Rise-of-the-Silver-Surfer/Fantastic-Four-(2015)/Fantastic-Four-The-First-Steps-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

One Battle After Another (2025) vs. Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl (2025) vs. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/One-Bat
tle-After-Another-(2025)/Taylor-Swift-The-Official-Release-Party-of-a-Showgirl-(2025)/Fantastic-Four-Rise-of-the-Silver-Surfer#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Some predict Tron Ares as another financial flop? unless China saves it??

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/33204-tron-ares/

Budget reported at $180 million
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/tron-ares-box-office-opening-
weekend-projections-1236542185/

During the whole MeToo it seems Leto almost got into trouble and was accused of sexual misconduct by at least nine women
https://people.com/jared-leto-accused-of-sexual-misconduct-by-multiple
-women-denies-allegations-11750231

His Minders or Lawyers or the Representatives for Leto have expressly denied the allegations.

He was in the Dallas Buyers Club had scenes in the Balde Runner remake, a failed Vampire from the Sony movie Spider-Man verse called Morbius but as bad as his meth-head 'Joker' was it is now starting to look like a better performance compared to Joker AssRape 2 Joker Folie à Deux

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I forgot that Snow White came out this year...

an update
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/cu
mulative/released-in-2025

it looks more respectable now Detective Chinatown is knocked down to 12th and Hollywood looks stronger with Lilo and Sitch, Minecraft and Jurassic World earnings but I dont think there is any movie that can get past the Chinese 'Ne Zha' part II
Demonslayer has knocked down F1, Superman and Mission Impossible taking 6th place it is moving in the direction of 5th place

this would mean the top five are

China Beijing Enlight Pictures
Hollywood Disney
Hollywood Warner Bros
Hollywood Universal Pictures
Japan Sony Pictures / Toho

1 Ne Zha 2 China $2,000,944,213
2 Lilo & Stitch $1,037,047,143
3 A Minecraft Movie $$957,761,053
4 Jurassic World Rebirth $867,920,435
5 How to Train Your Dragon $635,759,549
6 Japan Demon Slayer $634,384,374
7 F1: The Movie $627,306,826
8 Superman $615,632,110
9 Mission: Impossible The Final Reckoning $591,353,07

JAYNEZTOWN

Saturday, October 11, 2025 12:58 AM

Hollywood looks finsihed

Could even a Tropic Thunder Les Grossman save Hollyweird?

Disney, Warner Bros. Execs Talk Facing Box Office Competition in Asia: ‘Trust Your Local Teams’
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/movies/articles/disney-warner-bros
-film-execs-180042553.html

The Rise of ‘Demon Slayers’ Coincides With Hollywood’s Box Office Decline in Asia
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/rise-demon-slayers-coincides-hollywood-19000
0971.html

X-Men MCU reboot 2028

https://www.theinsneider.com/p/last-frontier-review-jason-clarke-apple
-tv-scot-teller-burt-young-i-play-rocky-dueling-oceans-movies

6IXSTRINGJACK

Saturday, October 11, 2025 4:48 AM

I don't know if anybody actually believes that China had a movie that earned $2 Billion though.

They lied about creating Covid in a lab for years and the US media covered for them.

Who's going to argue Xi when he says that his movie made $2 Billion? Anybody who does inside of China will be murdered.

Anyhow... Avatar 3 is still coming out this year, isn't it? If that's the case, there is still a chance that Hollywood comes out on top either way. Although I'm hoping that A3 will fail and people stop watching that stupid shit.

--------------------------------------------------

For all that I've blessed, and all that I've wronged. In dreams until my death, I will wander on.

JAYNEZTOWN

Saturday, October 11, 2025 7:19 PM

Tron Ares now eyeing a three-day opening weekend in the mid-to-high $30 million range, lower than expected, and acontrast from the $45 million opening weekend projection

Warner Bros.'s One Battle After Another grossed $993K on Thursday (from 3,634 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $47.83M.

https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3m2uk7wxwh22
6

Biggest Movie Flops of All Time (1989 - 2025)

JAYNEZTOWN

Saturday, October 11, 2025 8:28 PM

TRON: ARES First Social Media Reactions Point To A Visually Stunning But Otherwise Disappointing Threequel

https://sffgazette.com/sci_fi/movies/tron-ares-first-social-media-reac
tions-point-to-a-visually-stunning-but-otherwise-disappointing-threequel-a9241

One Battle After Another (2025) vs. Pacific Rim (2013) vs. Tomorrowland (2015)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/One-Bat
tle-After-Another-(2025)/Pacific-Rim/Tomorrowland#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Tron: Legacy (2010) vs. The Creator (2023) vs. Ender’s Game (2013)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Tron-Le
gacy/Creator-The-(2023)/Enders-Game#tab=day_by_day_comparison

One Battle After Another (2025) vs. Tron: Legacy (2010) vs. Tenet (2020)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/One-Bat
tle-After-Another-(2025)/Tron-Legacy/Tenet-(2020)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Tron: Legacy (2010) vs. Oblivion (2013) vs. Tron: Ares (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Tron-Le
gacy/Oblivion-(2013)/Tron-Ares-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

One Battle After Another (2025) vs. Justice League (2017) vs. The Dark Tower (2017)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/One-Bat
tle-After-Another-(2025)/Justice-League-(2017)/Dark-Tower-The#tab=day_by_day_comparison

JAYNEZTOWN

Sunday, October 12, 2025 1:43 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Sunday, October 12, 2025 10:12 PM

‘Tron: Ares’ Stumbles With $33.5 Million Domestic Debut, Adds $27 Million Overseas For $60 Million Global Opening

https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/tron-ares-box-office-opening-
weekend-roofman-kiss-of-the-spider-woman-1236544376/

Demon Slayer, Japan Strikes Back and Rejects Everything

How Sony Completely Outsmarted Pixar

JAYNEZTOWN

Monday, October 13, 2025 12:49 AM

Disney's Tron: Ares debuted with an estimated $27.0M internationally this weekend, including debuts of $2.9M in Mexico, $2.4M in the U.K., $1.9M in France, $1.5M in Australia & $1.4M in Germany.
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/33204-tron-ares/
Estimated global total stands at $60.5M

Tron: Legacy (2010) vs. Tron: Ares (2025) vs. Black Adam (2022)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Tron-Le
gacy/Tron-Ares-(2025)/Black-Adam-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

JAYNEZTOWN

Monday, October 13, 2025 3:37 PM

nu-Tron made less than Morbius

they are going to need to huge money from Europe/China to save it

Tron Ares
1st Friday $14,300,000 / $14,300,000
1st Saturday $11,000,000 / $25,300,000
1st Sunday $8,200,000 / $33,500,000

Disney's Tron: Ares debuted with $33.24M domestically this weekend (from 4,000 locations).
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1977837567702949895#m
Daily Grosses
FRI - $14.405M
SAT - $10.923M
SUN - $7.913M

Warner Bros.'s The Conjuring: Last Rites grossed an estimated $5.8M internationally
https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3m2z2ae5ous2
f

Tron: Ares Opening Day Box-Office Is Officially Lower Than Jared Leto’s Worst Movie
https://fandomwire.com/tron-ares-opening-day-box-office-is-officially-
lower-than-jared-letos-worst-movie/

Jared Leto’s Weird-Ass ‘Tron: Ares’ Set Behavior Was Maybe His Least Weird-Ass Set Behavior
https://gizmodo.com/jared-leto-tron-ares-method-acting-disney-20006659
12

'Reaction Vids' are still around and reaction vids of reaction videos. I remember when guys like Tyrone or girls would pop up in feeds making money from the latest Marvel/DC thing

Tron: Ares is AWFUL - Another Disney Flop | Reaction!

Tyrone Magnus

Box Office: ‘Tron: Ares’ Stumbles With $33.5 Million Debut
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/tron-ares-box-office-opening-
weekend-roofman-kiss-of-the-spider-woman-1236544376

Movie Comparison
Tron: Ares (2025) vs. Black Adam (2022) vs. Tron: Legacy (2010)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Tron-Ar
es-(2025)/Black-Adam-(2022)/Tron-Legacy#tab=day_by_day_comparison

New Line Eyeing ‘Mortal Kombat III’ With Jeremy Slater Returning As Screenwriter
https://deadline.com/2025/10/mortal-kombat-iii-jeremy-slater-writing-n
ew-line-1236582473/

Anti-Hollywood movement?

Musk joins 'cancel Netflix' campaign
https://japantoday.com/category/entertainment/musk-joins-%27cancel-net
flix%27-campaign#comments

JAYNEZTOWN

Tuesday, October 14, 2025 3:52 PM

After Limp 'Ares' Opening, 'Tron' Remains in Franchise Limbo - The sci-fi series about digital worlds has become too big to be a truly “cult” series, yet not big enough to be a major cultural force
https://www.thewrap.com/after-ares-tron-remains-in-franchise-limbo/

Indie Film Distribution: Reaching Audiences Instead of Gatekeepers
https://www.indiewire.com/features/commentary/indie-film-distribution-
reaching-audiences-gatekeepers-1235153848/

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