2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30539
PAGE 13 of 53
Minecraft I didn t not know how to predict this, I was thinking low first maybe 500 Million maybe much much lower but then its fanbase was coming out in support and I was thinking maybe 750-880 maybe I wasn't sure about the Billion but it opened really big near Mario levels, now its $722 so it will probably beat 750 soon
What it has going for it is its a young people's movie so they usually have staying power and it has a fanbase that buy to see it more than once again 'staying power'
however a lot of people say its cinematic garbage and Sinners already has it beaten, Thunderbolts, The Legend of Ochi should finish off a lot of its earning
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I don't believe we're going to see those two lines cross again...
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
3 days later...
It's had a fantastic hold. It grossed $6.5 Million on it's 3rd Thursday night, counting Preview Thursday. $6.5 Million is more than what all but the top performing movies of the last two years get on their own Preview Thursday.
Bruce is predicting only a -26% drop this weekend, which is the lowest prediction I've ever seen for a movie since I started paying attention.
Though that would keep the lines from separating any further this weekend, that's all it would do. Even at only a -26% drop, that would be $57 Million. The Super Mario Movie had a MUCH better 2nd weekend hold than Minecraft did, so even though it dropped -35% on weekend 3, it still made $59 Million.
-26% or better is nothing short of a miracle, in my opinion, so there's no way it's going to earn enough to bring the lines back together even though it's done amazing all week.
And the percentage of the Domestic/International will slightly improve twoard the international audience after they dump their weekly numbers on Sunday, it won't change it much from roughly 53% to maybe %50. Super Mario Bros had a 57.7% international haul. So if Minecraft is not doing as well in the US as Super Mario did, it's doing even worse internationally.
It's still nowhere near a $1 Billion movie, but everyone involved should be proud of what they did in this rough market.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
I'm not seeing the $1 Billion that ClownfishTV says...
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
With a 52%/48% Domestic/International ratio, it would need to make more than $500
Million in the US, and I see any reason to believe it's going to get there.
I keep reading everywhere about "how well it's holding on", but I think they're just so
used to flop after flop this point that they forget where the real benchmarks are supposed
to be.
Weekend Drops so far: -52%, -48%
Week Drops so far: -49%
These are healthy drops, but they're nothing special. They only look really good right
now because of the company they've shared since the beginning of the year.
If we continue on this -50% drop, it makes $20 Million next weekend, and $10 Million in
the US on Weekend 5. Yeah... We're already at that point in the run of this movie.
So... How do you get from $350 Million to $500 Million when we're already looking at a great
possibility of only banking $20 Million over next weekend? Especially when the $10 Million +
weekdays, even on Cheap Seat Tuesday are well behind them. We're looking at maybe
$3 Million per week day this week. That'll be $1.5 Million the following week, and then
under $1 Million per week day the week after.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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its been a good effort by a movie with mixed feedback, its certainly not beating The Super Mario Bros film.
Ryan Coogler Reacts to ‘Sinners’ Box Office Victory in Thank You Letter to Fans: ‘Your Response to the Film Has Re-Invigorated Me’
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/ryan-coogler-sinners-box-office-tha
nk-you-letter-1236375238/
‘Sinners’: How Ryan Coogler’s Period Vampire Pic Found Salvation at the Easter Box Office - The movie toppled 'A Minecraft Movie' in a surprise upset and much-needed win for Warner Bros. movie chiefs Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/sinners-box-office-michael-b-j
ordan/
Box Office: ‘Sinners’ Scores Second Best Monday For R-Rated Horror Movie At Box Office With $7.8M, Third Best Overall For A Horror Film
https://deadline.com/2025/04/box-office-sinners-monday-1236373779/
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probably only a matter of time before they try that Pokemon crap again
THIS anime franchise is world’s highest-grossing, three times of Marvel, its earning is Rs...., not One Piece, Demon Slayer
https://www.dnaindia.com/entertainment/report-this-anime-franchise-pok
-mon-is-world-s-highest-grossing-three-times-of-marvel-its-earning-is-rs-not-one-piece-dragon-ball-3145503
Their ratings and viewership still come at the top, however, the series that has beat even their popularity regarding viewership and revenues is Pokémon. It has been 29 years, and the Japanese franchise has earned a whopping USD 100 billion
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Box Office: ‘Sinners’ Scores Second Best Monday For R-Rated Horror Movie At Box Office With $7.8M, Third Best Overall For A Horror Film
https://deadline.com/2025/04/box-office-sinners-monday-1236373779/
Only if you're not counting inflation.
X-Men Origins Wolverine is in the Top 100 action movies of all time if you look at the box office and inflation isn't taken into account.
My guess is that this really is somewhere closer to the 100th best Monday for a horror film if inflation was considered.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Minecraft is still making $2 Million + on your random week day this week, but Thursday's $2.05 Million was a -69% drop from the previous Thursday.
Bruce finally put the week 3 profits up, and they fell -48% from the previous week, after a -49% drop on the first week.
This is average blockbuster behavior. It only seems great now because there is no real competition to compare it to so far in 2025.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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-44% drop for the weekend. $22,720,000.
Worldwide Total after Weekend 4: $816,567,000
It wrapped up Weekend 3 with $695,526,515, or $121 Million for the week.
Let's be super conservative and say it only drops -40% week to week from here on out...
Weekend 5: $889 Million (+72 Million)
Weekend 6: $932 Million (+43 Million)
Weekend 7: $957 Million (+26 Million)
Weekend 8: $972 Million (+15 Million)
Weekend 9: $981 Million (+9 Million)
Weekend 10: $986 Million (+5 Million)
Weekend 11: $989 Million (+3 Million)
Weekend 12: $991 Million (+2 Million)
It gets close if we give it 3 full months and straight -40% drops from here on out.
But I don't see either of those scenarios playing out, let alone both of them.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Damn. Looks like somebody might have finally made a good movie.
Weekend projections: Sinners heads into the stratosphere with $45-million second weekend
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/259210830-Weekend-projections-Sinners
-heads-into-the-stratosphere-with-45-million-second-weekend
Quote:
Sinners will decline just 6% from its opening weekend to earn $45 million, according to Warner Bros. Sunday-morning projection. Taking out the film’s $4.7 million in previews, it’s actually up from last weekend, with Saturday’s estimated gross, $18.8 million, 14% higher than last Saturday. That’s an off-the-charts crazy performance. And there’s more…
Sinners is headed to the third-best second-weekend ever for a movie that opened over $40 million
I had no idea until today that numbers like this were even possible for a movie.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Haha! I knew they would do it and they didn't disappoint.
Tuesday's $43,887 domestic box office officially puts Snow White's worldwide gross at over $200 Million.
Do a google search for "snow white" and "milestone" and see how many articles with that headline popped up in the last 2 days.
The really funny thing about this one though is that even all the shill sites put "milestone" in their headline here, the second half of those headlines are all bad news. This movie did so bad that even the liars gave up trying to lie about it.
So... sadly, it did end up beating The Marvel's $199.7+ Million worldwide haul, but only in the eyes of fake journalists and people too dumb to do anything besides reading headlines.
Once you factor the inflation in, Snow White has no shot and grossing more than The Marvels did, even though that was only a couple years worth of inflation since The Marvels was released.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
-44% drop for the weekend. $22,720,000.
Worldwide Total after Weekend 4: $816,567,000
It wrapped up Weekend 3 with $695,526,515, or $121 Million for the week.
Let's be super conservative and say it only drops -40% week to week from here on out...
Weekend 5: $889 Million (+72 Million)
Weekend 6: $932 Million (+43 Million)
Weekend 7: $957 Million (+26 Million)
Weekend 8: $972 Million (+15 Million)
Weekend 9: $981 Million (+9 Million)
Weekend 10: $986 Million (+5 Million)
Weekend 11: $989 Million (+3 Million)
Weekend 12: $991 Million (+2 Million)
It gets close if we give it 3 full months and straight -40% drops from here on out.
But I don't see either of those scenarios playing out, let alone both of them.
Exactly a -40% drop from last weekend. (Bruce was predicting only -23%)
$873,409,000 Worldwide Gross after Weekend 5.
We saw -50% during the weekdays, and -80% on Monday from the week prior (the Monday after Easter weekend Monday). So this explains a good bit of the $15 Million shortfall from the number above, despite the perfect -40% weekend drop. The rest must be because it didn't make as much internationally at the same time.
So even with a great 5th weekend hold, it's going to be even more impossible for Minecraft to break a Billion.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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