Disney Studios first 2024 release: Inside Out 2
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Monday, July 29, 2024 04:26
VIEWED: 5237
PAGE 6 of 7
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Barbie had $846 Million on Day 15.
Inside Out 2 has $880 Million on Day 15.
I doubt in the end that IO2 out-grosses Barbie though. Not only did Barbie had a phenomenally long run with a really great hold throughout, but the direct competition from Universal with Despicable Me 4 next weekend is really going to take a bite out of IO2 going forward.
I do believe it will be the first to a Billion though, or more likely, if they both hit that number on the same day IO2 will have a much higher number than Barbie did the day they crossed that line.
Well... they did it.
Both movies hit a Billion on the same day, but IO2 pulled in over $14 Million more in 17 days.
IO2 (Day 17): $1,014,806,043
Barbie (Day 17): $1,000,381,413
But like I said, Despicable Me 4 comes out next weekend and is a direct competition that Barbie never had during its run. I doubt very much IO2 ends with a higher number than Barbie had despite being the first to a Billion by probably half a day.
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IO2 projected to have made $8.8 Million on Day 18 (Monday 3).
Barbie made $9,095,665 on Day 18.
Barbie was at $1.043 Million after Day 18, IO2 is at $1.045.
(Barbie caught up quickly because I'd made note that an additional $35 Million had been added to Barbie's international total early in that week when I was tracking it).
First 3 weekends for both movies (US Box Office):
1 Barbie - $162,022,044 - N/A / Inside Out 2 - $154,201,673 - -N/A
2 Barbie - $ 93,011,602 - -43% / Inside Out 2 - $101,210,550 - -34%
3 Barbie - $ 53,008,647 - -43% / Inside Out 2 - $ 57,520,208 - -43%
It's been neck and neck so far for both of them. Barbie had a bigger opening weekend than IO2 did, but the 1st weekend drop was 9% steeper than IO2, which is a big deal when you're still talking about the $100 Million range. The 2nd weekend's drop was the same percentage-wise, but Barbie had already been hurt by that extra -9% from the weekend before.
The kid's being off school now doesn't seem to be helping this movie much during the week, in comparison to Barbie. Barbie has been out-grossing IO2 during the week to make up for the lesser weekend numbers. Don't get me wrong... If the kids weren't off school now, IO2 wouldn't yet be a Billion Dollar movie. I think this is just due to inflation and the pattern's we've seen so far this year.
It's a shame for Disney that Universal is dropping Despicable me so soon after this one came out. I can't imagine that it's going to be able to keep up with Barbie's numbers once DM4 comes out on Friday.
Some pretty impressive trajectory up until that point for any movie in 2024 though.
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Inside Out 2 after 19 days: $1,073,663,717
Barbie (2023) after 19 days: $1.052 Million
IO2 is using its remaining time before Despicable Me 4 comes out to slowly whittle away at Barbie's lead.
Barbie made $9,614,345 on its 3rd Cheap Seat Tuesday. IO2 just made $11,200,000 on the same day.
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Despicable Me 4 just got $27 Million last night with an early Wednesday release.
That early release is actually unfortunate for tracking because it throws the preview Thursday meaning out the window. The only somewhat obvious competition to compare it to would be the Super Mario Bros. movie from last year. That was released on Wednesday, April 5th, and pulled in $31,702,735. On April 6th, it pulled in another $26,566,130 before the weekend began.
Kids were still in school and it managed $1.362 Billion anyway.
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I have no idea what to predict for Despicable Me 4.
One of the guys at WDW Pro who is no fan of Disney gave IO2 a 7 out of 10 after it came out. But the same guy only gave DM4 a 4 out of 10. He said the kids would still love it, but unlike the first 3 movies it was not funny for adults taking the kids to see it.
It opened early in some other territories so it already has $26 Million internationally and after a Wednesday night opening it's got $75 Million in 3 days in the US for a worldwide total of $100,715,561.
Despicable Me 4 only cost $100 Million to make though, vs. Inside Out 2's $200 Million budget.
So where Inside Out 2 needed half a billion to break even before Disney started seeing any profits, Despicable Me 4 only needs $250 million before Universal starts seeing profits.
I know it will be profitable for sure, but by how much?
Looking at the release schedule, it looks like it's going to be kind to DM4. I'm not seeing any direct competition for either of these movies up through Labor Day.
With the start it's getting, I doubt very much DM4 will outgross IO2, but since the budget was half as much, I think there's a pretty good chance it grosses more for Universal that IO2 ultimately grosses for Disney. It all depends on which movie does a better job of cannibalizing the other one.
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Worldwide total for Inside Out 2 after 4 weekends (24 days): $1,216,923,699
Worldwide total for Barbie after 4 weekends (24 days): $1.163 Million
See August 14th post here: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=36&tid=65650&p=4
IO2 only did $3 Million less in weekend 4 than Barbie did despite the Despicable Me 4 competition. It would appear that international increases a month into the run must be higher for IO2 than they were for Barbie since the IO2 lead has actually grown to $53 Million at this point in their runs.
Despicable Me 4 appears to have made $75 Million for the 3-day weekend, $122.6 Million for the 5-day weekend and has a worldwide total of $229,559,000. It's only about $20 Million from breaking even after only 5 days, and that's without the benefit of the freebie Thursday Preview cash since it was officially released on Wednesday and didn't have a preview night.
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Worldwide total for Inside Out 2 after 28 Days: $1,271,844,077
Worldwide total for Barbie after 28 Days: $1,242,650,000
It's still beating Barbie heading into Weekend 5, although the lead has diminished from $53 Million to only $29 Million.
This might not necessarily be true though. Sometimes these big movies get international bumps mid-week instead of all of that reporting dropping on Monday. I haven't bothered tracking that on IO2 right now, and there's no way I would ever remember when this happened to Barbie if I didn't document it last year.
We'll just have to wait and see if IO2 still has a lead on Barbie after Monday.
Bruce is expecting IO2 to drop to 3rd place this weekend with a stronger than expected start for Longlegs. But he's still predicting another $23 Million for Weekend 5.
It will be well over $1.3 Billion on Monday and should probably end up pretty close to $1.4 Billion on Monday if the international numbers are still coming in big.
Barbie ultimately ended up with $1,432,340,485 worldwide after 185 days in the Box Office. .
I think it would be foolish at this point not to predict that IO2 is going to outgross Barbie despite the competition from Despicable Me 4.
Hell... This one might even end up beating Top Gun: Maverick's $1.465 Billion back in 2022.
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$1,350,092,077 worldwide for IO2 after 31 days.
After 31 Days, Barbie had $1.280 Million.
Even with Despicable Me 4 coming out and stealing a bit of its thunder, IO2 is running away with that race.
Barbie still had another 151 days in theaters after this. I don't know if Disney is going to give IO2 a window like that, but it shouldn't matter. Even though the movie has slowed down considerably from opening weekend by now, I don't imagine IO2 falls short. IO2 only needs another $83 Million worldwide to beat Barbie now.
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Inside Out 2 (Production Budget): $200,000,000
Break-even point: $500,000,000
Worldwide Total after 32 days: $1,359,043,206
Current Profit for Disney: $859,043,206
Despicable Me 4 (Production Budget): $100,000,000
Break-even point: $250,000,000
Worldwide Total after 15 days: $440,250,970
Current Profit for Universal: $190,250,970
I don't think even with the budgets that Universal is going to be able to match Disney's profits on their family summer releases this year.
I'm really surprised at the lack of turnout for DM4 in comparison. I've never seen any of these movies, but even I've heard of DM and the Minions quite a bit before. I never even heard of Inside Out until this sequel came out.
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$1,389,191,939 worldwide for IO2 after 34 days.
After 34 Days, Barbie had $1.289 Million. (On page 5, August 24th of the Sound of Freedom Thread)
I honestly did not think that IO2 would continue to run away with this after Despicable Me 4 came out, but IO2 continues to widen the lead all week. We're now a a full $100 Million difference.
Barbie's total run after 185 days in theaters was $1,432,340,485 worldwide.
That's only $43 Million away for IO2 now. It should have that without any problems when the internationals come in on Monday.
IO2 is going to beat Top Gun: Maverick's worldwide take of $1,464,884,688 by next weekend, if not before then.
I'm going to try to see if I can find the highest grossing movies of the 2020's in list format and see just how high I think this one will make it on that list.
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