The Bad Boys: Ride or Die Success Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Monday, July 1, 2024 06:14
VIEWED: 1751
PAGE 2 of 3
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Bruce is predicting $44 Million opening weekend, with the possibility of $50 Million.
I think that's probably still too high, but after those preview numbers I knew it would do better than $30 Million.
It appears I was wrong. It appears that Bruce was probably wrong as well.
Friday's take for Ride or Die is projected at $15.725 Million after you remove the $5.875 Thursday Previews. It should make more than that today, and somewhere in between Friday and Saturday's numbers on Sunday.
This is probably a $50 to $55 Million opening weekend in the US. It won't come close to the $62 Million opening that BBFL had in 2020, right before Democrats destroyed cinema over a case of the sniffles, but that should be considered a huge win in 2024.
Quote:
Bad Boys For Life had a 48% Domestic / 52% International split of $424 Million in 2020.
If it does make at least $40 Million in the US and sees the same international split that BBFL had, we're up over $80 Million opening and we'll be somewhere between 80% and 100% of the production budget. Giving that it's 2024, that may not be enough to get it to break even territory, but being a Bad Boys movie it will probably be able to overcome that in the end.
If we hit $50 Million now and the international split remains close to 50/50, Ride or Die made its production budget back this weekend. In 2023 that would have guaranteed that the movie made decent money. I think it will probably break even with little trouble if we hit $100 Million come Monday morning.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Bruce is predicting $44 Million opening weekend, with the possibility of $50 Million.
I think that's probably still too high, but after those preview numbers I knew it would do better than $30 Million.
It appears I was wrong. It appears that Bruce was probably wrong as well.
Friday's take for Ride or Die is projected at $15.725 Million after you remove the $5.875 Thursday Previews. It should make more than that today, and somewhere in between Friday and Saturday's numbers on Sunday.
This is probably a $50 to $55 Million opening weekend in the US. It won't come close to the $62 Million opening that BBFL had in 2020, right before Democrats destroyed cinema over a case of the sniffles, but that should be considered a huge win in 2024.Quote:
Bad Boys For Life had a 48% Domestic / 52% International split of $424 Million in 2020.
If it does make at least $40 Million in the US and sees the same international split that BBFL had, we're up over $80 Million opening and we'll be somewhere between 80% and 100% of the production budget. Giving that it's 2024, that may not be enough to get it to break even territory, but being a Bad Boys movie it will probably be able to overcome that in the end.
If we hit $50 Million now and the international split remains close to 50/50, Ride or Die made its production budget back this weekend. In 2023 that would have guaranteed that the movie made decent money. I think it will probably break even with little trouble if we hit $100 Million come Monday morning.
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Trump will be fine.
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I'm just glad a non woke flick is a hit, this is a good sign for 'Deadpool'
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Bruce is predicting $44 Million opening weekend, with the possibility of $50 Million.
I think that's probably still too high, but after those preview numbers I knew it would do better than $30 Million.
It appears I was wrong. It appears that Bruce was probably wrong as well.
Friday's take for Ride or Die is projected at $15.725 Million after you remove the $5.875 Thursday Previews. It should make more than that today, and somewhere in between Friday and Saturday's numbers on Sunday.
This is probably a $50 to $55 Million opening weekend in the US. It won't come close to the $62 Million opening that BBFL had in 2020, right before Democrats destroyed cinema over a case of the sniffles, but that should be considered a huge win in 2024.
$56 Million, actually...
I don't imagine the studio had any reason to highball those numbers here since they should be very happy with them, so we might see as much as $57 Million+ when the actual numbers come in.
Quote:Quote:
Bad Boys For Life had a 48% Domestic / 52% International split of $424 Million in 2020.
If it does make at least $40 Million in the US and sees the same international split that BBFL had, we're up over $80 Million opening and we'll be somewhere between 80% and 100% of the production budget. Giving that it's 2024, that may not be enough to get it to break even territory, but being a Bad Boys movie it will probably be able to overcome that in the end.
If we hit $50 Million now and the international split remains close to 50/50, Ride or Die made its production budget back this weekend. In 2023 that would have guaranteed that the movie made decent money. I think it will probably break even with little trouble if we hit $100 Million come Monday morning.
Not as good news for Ride or Die is the muted International take this weekend, but still not bad at all, considering the higher than everyone expected US opening weekend. Currently, 53% of the gross is US, with only 47% being international.
Total projected opening weekend: $104,600,000
You've started out your run with 105% of the production budget made on opening weekend. A rare feat in 2024. You should be among the 4 or 5 big budget Hollywood flicks to break even or make some money nearly halfway into the year. You might not make a whole lot of money, but in a year where everyone is losing simply not being a loser is winning.
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
I'm just glad a non woke flick is a hit, this is a good sign for 'Deadpool'
"Hit" might be overstating things a bit, but even though I don't imagine it's going to make a lot of money for Sony Pictures, I give it about a zero percent chance of losing any more money for them.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I don't imagine the studio had any reason to highball those numbers here since they should be very happy with them, so we might see as much as $57 Million+ when the actual numbers come in.
They've already raised the projections from $56 Million to $56.5 Million. Strange, yes... but not unprecedented. My thinking in this case is that the studio is more than confident that it made more than this and by bumping the US projection by $500k it puts it over $105 Million worldwide for opening weekend headlines.
So I don't think this will in effect boost the final US opening weekend total higher than $57 Million when we get the real numbers later today. I don't think the projection number was boosted because of new data. It was simply done for the headlines today.
I still think the number will be at least $57 Million but will not cross $58 Million.
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These Profits will save the studios?
So its a hit for Columbia Pictures / Sony Pictures
Can it save the studios and how does it compare to the profits from Avengers Endgame, Titanic, Jurassic Park, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Ironman, Thor Ragnarok, Batman Begins, Independence Day, Harry Potter, Spider-Man No Way Home or foreign or low indie Paranormal Activity, FNAF, Super Size Me, M3GAN, Godzilla Minus One, Halloween.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
These Profits will save the studios?
Haha... not a chance.
I doubt that Bad Boys makes enough money to cover Sony's losses on Madame Web alone.
I have no collected data like I did for last year, but practically everything has been a loser so far save for 3 or 4 other movies and this one.
Quote:
So its a hit for Columbia Pictures / Sony Pictures
Can it save the studios and how does it compare to the profits from Avengers Endgame, Titanic, Jurassic Park, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Ironman, Thor Ragnarok, Batman Begins, Independence Day, Harry Potter, Spider-Man No Way Home or foreign or low indie Paranormal Activity, FNAF, Super Size Me, M3GAN, Godzilla Minus One, Halloween.
I think the only studio that I heard was in trouble and that would need saving is Paramount.
What we're seeing right now is failures that were planed 2 years ago playing out before our eyes. These things don't get made overnight.
I'm hoping that they were learning lessons last year and already made a switch or the outlook for Hollywood isn't going to change much until 2026 at the earliest. Only the studios can save themselves.
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Ride or Die has been a hit all week long so far.
Without Thursday's numbers included it's already up to $123.3 Million, so that was almost another $19 Million in only 3 week days. It's been a while since we've seen that, but I'm sure some of that has to do with kids being out for the summer now too.
Probably gets around another $5 Million tonight, and it will be pretty close to $130 Million entering the second weekend.
The international money announced on Monday should be close to 100% of the $48 Million it pulled in opening weekend, so my guess is that it's almost impossible for this not to have $200 to $210 Million by the end of the weekend.
They're going to make some money on this one. Nothing crazy, but it will be more than a few bucks.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (June 7th):
Extremely long story short, based off of Thursday Previews, if you predicted that Bad Boys would finish its run at 4th place in the 2024 Box Office (excluding Chinese movies and disregarding Kung Fu Panda 4's higher showing), it would make somewhere between what Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes made.
Or in other words, somewhere between $200 Million and $370 Million.
That could be good news for this movie. I don't think it would make anywhere close to what Apes ends up pulling in, but if it can split the above difference, it could walk away making in the area of $25 Million profit.
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Ride or Die is currently at $218.6 Million worldwide (Day 11).
Ride or Die surprised this weekend only loosing -45% from the prior weekend, and that's not adjusted for Preview Thursday either.
It will end up somewhere safely in the middle of that range. Pretty close to the middle, I suspect.
FYI, Ride or Die was no longer the 4th highest grossing preview night, but the 5th now that Disney's Inside Out 2 took 1st place last weekend with $13 Million. So the final place we would expect Ride or Die to end up based off the previous assumptions is also moved to 6th as well, disregarding Chinese movies and due to the behavior of KFP4.
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Bruce is predicting an almost unheard of drop of only -17% from last weekend on Ride or Die. At least I don't see it practically ever, except when a film is running on empty (like Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Bruce's -21% prediction this weekend).
But we're still talking a $28 Million+ third weekend here if Bruce is right.
$230,433,597 worldwide right now. Probably be fairly close to $300 Million by Monday morning.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Bruce is predicting an almost unheard of drop of only -17% from last weekend on Ride or Die. At least I don't see it practically ever, except when a film is running on empty (like Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Bruce's -21% prediction this weekend).
But we're still talking a $28 Million+ third weekend here if Bruce is right.
Yeah... Looks like Bruce was WAY off on this one. It had a -44% drop and only saw $18 Million in the US.
Quote:
$230,433,597 worldwide right now. Probably be fairly close to $300 Million by Monday morning.
It's at $289,111,000. If it had gotten that $28 Million Bruce predicted, it would have been less than $900k shy of $300 Million.
In any event, it's easily going to see a 300%+ return on its production budget, which means at least a $50 Million profit for Sony. Should have that before next weekend. Everything else it makes is gravy, which is good news because you know that Sony like most of the other studios started out the gates heavily in the red in 2023.
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Trump will be fine.
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