The Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Failure Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Sunday, June 9, 2024 01:20
VIEWED: 5121
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Godzilla x Kong really hurt Ghostbusters and pretty much every other movie in the box office this weekend.
Variety reports that movie cost $135 Million to make, and it looks like it grossed just shy of $195 Million worldwide on opening weekend. That movie shouldn't have any problems breaking even and making some money with 144% of the production budget grossed in 3 days.
How did Godzilla x Kong only cost $135 Million to make but Argyle cost $200 Million???
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Frozen Empire has trended below the bottom line for legs ever since the weekend ended. Even over the weekend and most of last week it trended either right on the bottom of that line or below it.
With what seems to be very little help overseas, there's zero chance that this one breaks even for Sony. It is going to enter its third weekend with over a $10 Million deficit to 50% of the break even point.
Now it's not a question of whether or not this thing makes or loses money. It's a question of how much money it's going to lose.
I'm guessing it loses at least $50 Million for Sony at this point. Maybe even up to $70 Million by the time its box office run ends.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
With what seems to be very little help overseas, there's zero chance that this one breaks even for Sony. It is going to enter its third weekend with over a $10 Million deficit to 50% of the break even point.
It's at $114,963,665 now. It's $10,036,335 shy of the halfway to breaking even point going into the 3rd weekend.
Bruce predicts $8.9 Million (only a -43% drop), which until the international numbers are added in still does not bring it halfway to breaking even.
It's got a couple minor European countries that are showing it new this weekend, which will help marginally, but I don't expect much more than $10 Million additional to the global gross internationally on Monday. Maybe $12 Million more tops, which would give it an international total of $47,100,000.
It would still need $115 Million to break even, with no possible way of ever achieving that.
My guess for Frozen Empire is somewhere in the area of $175 to $180 Million worldwide total.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
With what seems to be very little help overseas, there's zero chance that this one breaks even for Sony. It is going to enter its third weekend with over a $10 Million deficit to 50% of the break even point.
It's at $114,963,665 now. It's $10,036,335 shy of the halfway to breaking even point going into the 3rd weekend.
Bruce predicts $8.9 Million (only a -43% drop), which until the international numbers are added in still does not bring it halfway to breaking even.
It's got a couple minor European countries that are showing it new this weekend, which will help marginally, but I don't expect much more than $10 Million additional to the global gross internationally on Monday. Maybe $12 Million more tops, which would give it an international total of $47,100,000.
It would still need $115 Million to break even, with no possible way of ever achieving that.
My guess for Frozen Empire is somewhere in the area of $175 to $180 Million worldwide total.
Looks like Bruce somehow got the international updates really early this weekend... I'm actually surprised at how sketchy the current international numbers are for this movie since it is a "blockbuster". I'm seeing behavior on this accounting that is usually only done with lower budget movies, so I'm not entirely sure that it's anywhere close to accurate at this point.
But that being said, we're now at $49,300,000 International. So if Bruce's reporting so far has been accurate, Ghostbuster's hold internationally and/or the money it made in the new countries this weekend were a tad larger than I expected them to be, adding $14.1 Million to last weeks total.
The US projection from Sony was $90k more than Bruce's prediction at $9 Million even.
So after 3 weekends we're at $138,164,000 worldwide, which is 55.2% of the money it would need to make to break even.
I'm still calling at least a $70 Million loss for Sony. Depending on how loose a hold it maintains, that may balloon to $80 Million or more.
I'm somewhat doubtful this can even make more than $170 Million worldwide at this point. I'll have a better feel on the final number after one more weekend.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ghostbusters-Frozen-Empire-(2024)#ta
b=box-office
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HUGE dropoff for Frozen Empire this week, aided in part because of the loss of 510 theaters showing it. Though it only showed a -42% dropoff from the prior weekend, it is now down -77% on Monday from the previous Monday and -59% on Cheap Seat Tuesday from the previous Tuesday.
Monday (Day 18) was it's first sub-million day in the US, and it dropped well below even half a million at $460 Million. Projections for Tuesday show $750k.
Worldwide it now sits at $139,376,551, or roughly $110 Million shy of breaking even.
I suspect it will make in the area of $4.5 to $5 Million over the weekend, but that's only if the theater count doesn't change substantially. With Civil War and Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's Dead needing screens this weekend, I'm sure that Ghostbusters will lose at least a hundred or two if not more. If it loses 500 or 600 or more, expect that number to be even less this weekend.
New international releases this weekend look to be Brazil, France, Italy and South Africa. I don't know how much people in Brazil like Ghostbusters, but that's the only country out of the four that I think could actually pull in any meaningful sort of profit here above what they were already going to get from countries where it was currently released.
It added $14.2 Million internationally last weekend, which would suggest that it doesn't have very good legs outside of the US, given that opening weekend was $35.1 Million and the $14.2 Million on Weekend 2 also included all the money made all week in any country that opened the weekend prior. If a movie is doing particularly well internationally, that 2nd weekend international number is usually pretty close to the opening weekend number because of that. AND it was opened in 3 or 4 additional countries last weekend and still turned in a very low 2nd weekend number.
So unless Brazil manages to pull in some huge numbers for Frozen Kingdom this weekend, my guess for the international take for Weekend 3 is somewhere in the area of $7 to $9.5 Million.
My Best Case Scenario for Weekend 3 (barring a HUGE Brazillian turnout) is an additional $15.5 Million once Bruce reconciles the international numbers by Monday. That would leave it at $155 Million Worldwide Gross.
After that, it's just watching how much attrition there is.
At 50% per week, it would look like this...
Weekend 4: $7.25 Million
Weekend 5: $3.625 Million
Weekend 6: $1.8125 Million
Weekend 7: $0.90625 Million
Weekend 8: $0.453125 Million
Our worldwide totals per week would look like this then:
Weekend 4: $162,250,000
Weekend 5: $165,875,000
Weekend 6: $167,687,500
Weekend 7: $168,593,750
Weekend 8: $169,046,875
Will it get more than 8 weeks? Maybe.
There's a lot of variables in there that the above numbers don't account for, but they should be a pretty good judge of where this is going. It won't come close to breaking even, and my earlier predictions that it loses at least $70 million look more than good. I don't think it will actually lose $80 Million or more for Sony as the numbers above suggest it will, but it is possible.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I suspect it will make in the area of $4.5 to $5 Million over the weekend, but that's only if the theater count doesn't change substantially. With Civil War and Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's Dead needing screens this weekend, I'm sure that Ghostbusters will lose at least a hundred or two if not more. If it loses 500 or 600 or more, expect that number to be even less this weekend.
It lost 485 theaters, but it still managed $5.75 Million for only a 36% drop. Much smaller than the previous two of 42% and 65%.
Quote:
My Best Case Scenario for Weekend 3 (barring a HUGE Brazillian turnout) is an additional $15.5 Million once Bruce reconciles the international numbers by Monday. That would leave it at $155 Million Worldwide Gross.
Jury's still out on what Brazil did. It's somewhere in the Rest of World figure right now. There's no way all that extra business came from Brazil alone though. Frozen Empire was at $160 Million after the weekend compared to my $155 Million prediction. About $1 Million of that was additional US Weekend Box Office. The other $4 Million was international.
That extra $5 Million could have some minor ripple effects and up the money in the coming weeks by a bit too. With our -50% model for 8 weeks, that would add an additional $5 Million after week 8.
So my figure from last weekend predicted $169,046,875 after Weekend 8. Now it looks as though that number could hit $179 Million.
That would still be in line with my $70 Million + loss for Sony, but not $80 Million or more at least.
Oddly, Bruce didn't list Frozen Empire in the Theater Count article yesterday. That's obviously a mistake. It hasn't even been in theaters 4 weekends yet and it was in 3,350 theaters this week.
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Ghostbusters is getting a huge bump by a weak box office toward the end of its run for sure.
Godzilla/Kong's impact was felt initially, but even that movie took 4th place with only $9 Million this weekend. The entire box office for the weekend was only $63 Million, which is hugely disappointing for Hollywood this far into the year.
So Frozen Empire actually had one of the lowest weekend-to-weekend drops I've seen so far at only -24% from last weekend, with another $4.4 Million in the bank, which puts last week about another $1 Million above what I figured the revised numbers should be after a better than expected showing last weekend.
It also got another $10.1 Million internationally, so I think the lack of Hollywood movies coming out is helping it overseas as well. That staggered international release date is also playing a part in keeping the week to week international drops much lower than they would have been had it been released everywhere simultaneously. International grosses by week for this movie are as follows:
Week 1: $16.4 Million
Week 2: $18.7 Million (14% Increase)
Week 3: $14.1 Million (25% Decrease)
Week 4: $13.9 Million (1% Decrease)
Week 5: $10.1 Million (27% Decrease)
Apparently, there's no way I could have accounted for that with the limited way the international numbers are presented to us. The staggered international release will ultimately end up being why my predictions for the final numbers of this movie were so off.
It's still going to be a massive failure, but the impact has been deadened quite a bit with the last two weekend's numbers.
We're already now sitting at 176,114,000 worldwide, which is only less than $4 Million below the high end of my prediction for this movie.
It will break $180 Million for sure, and it will lose less than $70 Million for Sony.
So with $10.1 Million Internationally and $5.9 Million in the US this week, that's an extra $16 Million over week 4. It looks like the new international releases are over, so there shouldn't be anymore surprises there. I'm going to play it safe and call it a -40% drop week to week from here on out instead of 50%.
Week 5 (Current): $176,114,000
Week 6: $185,714,000
Week 7: $191,474,000
Week 8: $194,930,000
Week 9: $197,003,600
Week 10: $198,227,760
Week 11: $199,974,256
Week 12: $200,422,154
Theoretically, I could see this movie now making double its production budget. I don't believe that will actually happen, but today is the first time I'm considering it a remote possibility.
12 weeks would be a LOT of screen time that it's not likely to get unless the next few months continue to be extremely soft at the box office as most of the year has been so far. This would also require only -40% drops worldwide every week from the current week total of $16 Million even. I don't think this is likely now either though since I don't think the International drop-off will be only -27% like it was in the US now that we won't be adding new countries to the schedule going forward.
I think $190 to $195 Million now is a pretty reasonable goal. It's at least $10 to $15 Million better than I thought it was going to do.
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My prediction for Week 6 totals was $185,714,000, assuming 40% weekly drops, worldwide.
The actual total after the weekend was $187,988,000.
There was only a 27% drop in the Domestic box office this weekend, so Ghostbusters continues to benefit from a very week 2024 box office.
It made about 7.5 Million internationally over the last week, roughly the same percentage drop it saw in the US this weekend.
At this point, if it gets a full 12 weeks in theaters it certainly hits $200 Million. It's only $12 Million away from that now. If weekly drops continue to amaze at less than 30%, it'll get there in only 2 more weeks.
A weak box office isn't going to save this movie from losing money, but it will lose quite a bit less than it would have otherwise. We're now looking at a loss of only somewhere between $40-$50 Million.
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Each Ghostbuster sells fewer tickets than the previous one because ticket prices are inflating. There was a 27-year hiatus between Ghostbusters II and Ghostbusters (2016). Hollywood should have a refreshing 27-year gap until the next Ghostbusters in 2051. By then Bill Murray will be an actual ghost, which is fine for the plot in that future movie.
Worldwide Box Office
$187,988,000 Mar 22, 2024 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
$203,540,177 Nov 19, 2021 Ghostbusters: Afterlife
$229,008,658 Jul 15, 2016 Ghostbusters
$215,500,000 Jun 16, 1989 Ghostbusters II
$295,582,480 Jun 8, 1984 Ghostbusters
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Ghostbusters#tab=summary
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Each Ghostbuster sells fewer tickets than the previous one because ticket prices are inflating. There was a 27-year hiatus between Ghostbusters II and Ghostbusters (2016). Hollywood should have a refreshing 27-year gap until the next Ghostbusters in 2051. By then Bill Murray will be an actual ghost, which is fine for the plot in that future movie.
Worldwide Box Office
$187,988,000 Mar 22, 2024 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
$203,540,177 Nov 19, 2021 Ghostbusters: Afterlife
$229,008,658 Jul 15, 2016 Ghostbusters
$215,500,000 Jun 16, 1989 Ghostbusters II
$295,582,480 Jun 8, 1984 Ghostbusters
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Ghostbusters#tab=summary
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Yeah. I know. I went into great detail on these numbers before.
I pointed out how Sony was afraid to try a Ghostbusters III after II only made $215 Million on a $25 Million budget.
That's $542,802,790.32 on a $62,970,161.29 budget if you apply inflation, or roughly 9 times the production budget... and they had cold feet.
Yet Afterlife only made $203 Million on a budget of $75 Million and they still went ahead with Frozen Empire. Not only that, but they foolishly raised the production budget for it $25 Million above Afterlife.
This wasn't the thread where I had that deep dive on the numbers. I don't remember what thread I was posting all of that in before I made this one. But I knew this movie wasn't going to be a success and was a big mistake from the beginning.
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