The Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Failure Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Sunday, June 9, 2024 01:20
VIEWED: 5121
PAGE 3 of 7
So I decided to finally go and reference my 2023 spreadsheets to look at performance of movies on opening weekend vs. the end of their runs to get a real comparison to gauge Ghostbusters' chances here. The following is the list of movies that had a Worldwide Gross anywhere between 50% and 99% of their Production Budget on opening weekend and what that percentage was. I then follow that up with the final percentage of the budget that it made after it was out of theaters (As of 01/04/2024... I did update my spreadsheets at the end of the year, but I don't remember if I updated the 2023 Hollywood thread).
Remember, 250% is break even. Anything less is a loser, anything more is a winner.
Fast X - 93.82% / 210.17% (LOSER)
Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story - 89.83% / 196.41% (LOSER)
The Equalizer 3 - 97.14% / 265.27% (WINNER)
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - 87.44% / 224.45% (LOSER)
Thanksgiving - 84.00% / 306.04% (WINNER)
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 - 81.03% / 195.28% (LOSER)
Cocaine Bear - 80.00% / 257.05% (WINNER)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - 72.86% 257.65% (WINNER)
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 70.56% / 217.24% (LOSER)
The Flash - 69.50% / 133.26% (LOSER)
Wonka - 65.60% / 503.20% (WINNER) *I got the current figure for Wonka since it's still in theaters.
The Little Mermaid - 65.52% / 227.34% (LOSER)
A Haunting in Venice - 61.67% / 189.33% (LOSER)
The Boogeyman - 57.14% / 235.27% (LOSER)
No Hard Feelings - 54.44% / 185.45% (LOSER)
Trolls Band Together - 53.26% / 211.46% (LOSER)
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - 52.54% / 211.71% (LOSER) *I got current data for this movie since it made a lot more after 01/04/2024.
Shazam: Fury of the Gods - 52.40% / 105.75% (LOSER)
Total list: 18 movies
Total losers: 13 movies
Total winners: 5 movies
Right now, Ghostbusters is sitting at exactly 61.40% on opening weekend worldwide. This will likely increase by $1 to $3 million because of studios lowballing projections, but I think it's pretty close since Sony Pictures just lowered their projection $200k to an even $45 Million this morning, which is never a good sign.
If it doesn't increase, this puts it over 4 points below The Little Mermaid and even a few tenths between A Haunting in Venice. Either way, there's no way they lowballed it so much that it would displace Wonka on the list.
Wonka was the only movie in 2023 that grossed 65% on opening weekend and ended up winning in the end. (And boy, did it win...)
No movie that was in the Top 100 Worldwide 2023 list at any point that made below 65% of the production budget worldwide on opening weekend ended up breaking even. The two that were closest was the low budget "The Bogeyman" and the stupid expensive budget "The Little Mermaid". [ETA: CORRECTION. Migration did at only 47.83%. See below.]
Just more evidence supporting my original argument that this was going to flop and a 3rd movie isn't likely to be made.
Sony Pictures killed themselves with that budget. Had they done the right thing and kept the budget to $75 Million like they spent on Afterlife, we'd be having a much different conversation about this right now.
In that case, it would be sitting at 81.8%, which would still be a steep hill to climb for the break-even point, but at least we'd be in a territory where there was at least some winners on the heap that started with similar openings.
ETA: OOPS! By only grabbing movies that had 50% opening weekends, I totally forgot about Universal's Migration. That opened with only 47.83% and went on to gross 400% of the budget (and it's still in some theaters today).
This really was an outlier for several reasons though. This was the little movie that could. Excellent word of mouth helped this one probably more than any other movie in 2023. It was also the benefactor of an extremely weak box office for the first 3 months of 2024 just as Wonka was.
And speaking of Wonka, at only a 65% opening we
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
So I decided to finally go and reference my 2023 spreadsheets to look at performance of movies on opening weekend vs. the end of their runs to get a real comparison to gauge Ghostbusters' chances here. The following is the list of movies that had a Worldwide Gross anywhere between 50% and 99% of their Production Budget on opening weekend and what that percentage was. I then follow that up with the final percentage of the budget that it made after it was out of theaters (As of 01/04/2024... I did update my spreadsheets at the end of the year, but I don't remember if I updated the 2023 Hollywood thread).
Remember, 250% is break even. Anything less is a loser, anything more is a winner.
Fast X - 93.82% / 210.17% (LOSER)
Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story - 89.83% / 196.41% (LOSER)
The Equalizer 3 - 97.14% / 265.27% (WINNER)
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - 87.44% / 224.45% (LOSER)
Thanksgiving - 84.00% / 306.04% (WINNER)
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 - 81.03% / 195.28% (LOSER)
Cocaine Bear - 80.00% / 257.05% (WINNER)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - 72.86% 257.65% (WINNER)
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 70.56% / 217.24% (LOSER)
The Flash - 69.50% / 133.26% (LOSER)
Wonka - 65.60% / 503.20% (WINNER) *I got the current figure for Wonka since it's still in theaters.
The Little Mermaid - 65.52% / 227.34% (LOSER)
A Haunting in Venice - 61.67% / 189.33% (LOSER)
The Boogeyman - 57.14% / 235.27% (LOSER)
No Hard Feelings - 54.44% / 185.45% (LOSER)
Trolls Band Together - 53.26% / 211.46% (LOSER)
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - 52.54% / 211.71% (LOSER) *I got current data for this movie since it made a lot more after 01/04/2024.
Shazam: Fury of the Gods - 52.40% / 105.75% (LOSER)
Total list: 18 movies
Total losers: 13 movies
Total winners: 5 movies
Right now, Ghostbusters is sitting at exactly 61.40% on opening weekend worldwide. This will likely increase by $1 to $3 million because of studios lowballing projections, but I think it's pretty close since Sony Pictures just lowered their projection $200k to an even $45 Million this morning, which is never a good sign.
If it doesn't increase, this puts it over 4 points below The Little Mermaid and even a few tenths between A Haunting in Venice. Either way, there's no way they lowballed it so much that it would displace Wonka on the list.
Wonka was the only movie in 2023 that grossed 65% on opening weekend and ended up winning in the end. (And boy, did it win...)
No movie that was in the Top 100 Worldwide 2023 list at any point that made below 65% of the production budget worldwide on opening weekend ended up breaking even. The two that were closest was the low budget "The Bogeyman" and the stupid expensive budget "The Little Mermaid". [ETA: CORRECTION. Migration did at only 47.83%. See below.]
Just more evidence supporting my original argument that this was going to flop and a 3rd movie isn't likely to be made.
Sony Pictures killed themselves with that budget. Had they done the right thing and kept the budget to $75 Million like they spent on Afterlife, we'd be having a much different conversation about this right now.
In that case, it would be sitting at 81.8%, which would still be a steep hill to climb for the break-even point, but at least we'd be in a territory where there was at least some winners on the heap that started with similar openings.
ETA: OOPS! By only grabbing movies that had 50% opening weekends, I totally forgot about Universal's Migration. That opened with only 47.83% and went on to gross 400% of the budget (and it's still in some theaters today).
This really was an outlier for several reasons though. This was the little movie that could. Excellent word of mouth helped this one probably more than any other movie in 2023. It was also the benefactor of an extremely weak box office for the first 3 months of 2024 just as Wonka was.
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Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
'Ghostbusters' may do OK because it has a fanbase, the 'Fast and Furious' films chased away their fanbase because the films got REALLY stupid, remember street racers in space? I was surprised 'Mission Impossible' flopped, I thought that would be a sure fire hit.
LOL... No. I don't remember that. The only F&F movie I ever saw was the original.
Be that as it may, Fast X still pulled in $714 Million worldwide. That's pretty much Dune: Part 2 numbers and would have it in 1st or 2nd place worldwide in 2024 depending on how well DP2 ultimately does. Their problem on that movie was the budget was an insane $340 Million.
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 did itself no favors with an equally insane $290 Million budget too. That movie still pulled in $567 Million worldwide, which would have made it #3 in the world in 2024 with DuneP2 and Fast X above it.
The new Ghostbusters will not make close to half of what Dead Reckoning made and won't even make more than the currently 5th place Chinese film so far this year. Since it had a budget of only $100 Million it will probably end up doing slightly better than the 195.28% MI made vs. its own production budget, but at this point I'm wondering if it will even make 200% of the budget or just slightly above.
Both the Fast and the Furious and Mission Impossible franchises had a much larger fanbase than Ghostbusters ever did. Even if they've lost quite a bit of them over the decades, it's still far more than Ghostbusters ever had, which is easily evidenced just by looking at the WW Gross of the last 2 entries of each series in comparison with each other.
The budget for this movie should have only been $60 Million. And they shouldn't have put in heavy hints toward a lesbian relationship between an underage girl and a ghost.
I don't see any possible future where Frozen Empire comes close to breaking even and another movie gets made.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Right now, Ghostbusters is sitting at exactly 61.40% on opening weekend worldwide. This will likely increase by $1 to $3 million because of studios lowballing projections, but I think it's pretty close since Sony Pictures just lowered their projection $200k to an even $45 Million this morning, which is never a good sign.
If it doesn't increase, this puts it over 4 points below The Little Mermaid and even a few tenths between A Haunting in Venice. Either way, there's no way they lowballed it so much that it would displace Wonka on the list.
Yeah. It didn't increase. I shouldn't have said that it was going to post $1-$3 Million more because I already noticed that it was dropped $200k on the projection before I said that, which historically has always meant that it was not going to get the usual post projection bump. It made only $4,673 more than that lowered projection in the US/Canada and lost more than a few bucks on the international projections.
So worldwide in total it only grossed 61.38% of the Production Budget on opening weekend.
$188.62 Million more is an impossible ask of this movie before it leaves theaters.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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Free download of Ghostbusters.Frozen.Empire.2024.1080p.HD-TS-3MINEM[TGx]
https://1337x.to/torrent/6037531/Ghostbusters-Frozen-Empire-2024-1080p
-HD-TS-3MINEM-TGx/
Total size 6.5 GB
For free, and no need to travel to a theater, it is a worthwhile experience.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Careful there, buddy.
Word is that Congress is looking to pass a bill taxing theft.
Right now I'm seeing it's only regarding retail theft since that supposedly accounts for $15 Billion per year in business tax revenues, not including sales taxes.
But I don't see why they wouldn't easily apply that to online piracy when it's so very easy to attribute it to you. Especially when you're always advertising how you do it on an ancient website that is completely searchable on Google without needing any login credentials to view every post.
Hope you finally got around to getting a VPN. We all know you didn't have one when I harvested your IP address.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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Quote:6ixStringJack, you know nothing but that is the way of Trumptards. Somebody with a camera copied Ghostbusters onto a memory card but they didn't steal the hundred-pound reel of film from the theater. Too bad for Hollywood, but they knew this day was coming since 2013 when Steven Spielberg and George Lucas predicted a film industry 'implosion', which implies rapid collapse. Steven and George got it slightly wrong. What is happening is more like a termite infestation slowly eating away at Hollywood's wood beams and posts of their Malibu homes on the beach.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Careful there, buddy.
Word is that Congress is looking to pass a bill taxing theft.
Right now I'm seeing it's only regarding retail theft since that supposedly accounts for $15 Billion per year in business tax revenues, not including sales taxes.
But I don't see why they wouldn't easily apply that to online piracy when it's so very easy to attribute it to you. Especially when you're always advertising how you do it on an ancient website that is completely searchable on Google without needing any login credentials to view every post.
Hope you finally got around to getting a VPN. We all know you didn't have one when I harvested your IP address.
Today's movies are in hotels two weeks after they hit theaters, Spielberg said. "There's going to be eventually day and date with movies" — when films are available on demand at home the same day they hit theaters — "and eventually there's going to be a price variance. You're going to have to pay $25 to see the next Iron Man. And you're probably only going to have to pay $7 to see Lincoln."
https://www.theverge.com/2013/6/13/4425486/steven-spielberg-george-luc
as-usc-film-industry-massive-implosion
Spielberg predicted prices between $7 and $25. If he had been less optimistic perhaps he would have predicted a range between $0 and $25.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:6ixStringJack, you know nothing but that is the way of Trumptards. Somebody with a camera copied Ghostbusters onto a memory card but they didn't steal the hundred-pound reel of film from the theater. Too bad for Hollywood, but they knew this day was coming since 2013 when Steven Spielberg and George Lucas predicted a film industry 'implosion', which implies rapid collapse. Steven and George got it slightly wrong. What is happening is more like a termite infestation slowly eating away at Hollywood's wood beams and posts of their Malibu homes on the beach.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Careful there, buddy.
Word is that Congress is looking to pass a bill taxing theft.
Right now I'm seeing it's only regarding retail theft since that supposedly accounts for $15 Billion per year in business tax revenues, not including sales taxes.
But I don't see why they wouldn't easily apply that to online piracy when it's so very easy to attribute it to you. Especially when you're always advertising how you do it on an ancient website that is completely searchable on Google without needing any login credentials to view every post.
Hope you finally got around to getting a VPN. We all know you didn't have one when I harvested your IP address.
I'm not going to get into an argument with you on the pros and cons of piracy here buddy.
But you suffer from Main Character Syndrome and you put Haken in potential jeopardy every single time you post pirated links on his wide-open to the rest of the world website.
And the Government and IRS isn't going to care one little bit about your views on piracy either. They already know everything everybody has ever downloaded illegally, whether they brag about it online or not. If they end up passing laws that tax people for the value of every intellectual property they've downloaded at their IP address, that's going to be quite the hefty bill. And trust me, they're not going to give you the sale prices when they do their figuring either. It's all MSRP, baby.
Having a VPN isn't going to help you because VPNs DO keep logs of all your traffic no matter how many youtubers will tell you that they don't when they're shilling the services, and the Privacy section of the contract that you signed and didn't read states clearly that they will share your information with the authorities if they're asked for it.
They won't even have to use the labor of one of their new 87,000 agents to do any of this either. It can all be done via computer programs in current year.
Good luck.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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Quote:From decades of experience I have learned that it is impossible to stop a stupid person from spewing nonsense that the idiot mistakes for sound advice. 6ix, you have heard the old phrase: “Opinions are like assholes. Everyone has one and most of them stink.” 6ix, you have at least two assholes. Here is an example of a stupid, stinking opinion from 6ix:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm not going to get into an argument with you on the pros and cons of piracy here buddy.
But you suffer from Main Character Syndrome and you put Haken in potential jeopardy every single time you post pirated links on his wide-open to the rest of the world website.
And the Government and IRS isn't going to care one little bit about your views on piracy either. They already know everything everybody has ever downloaded illegally, whether they brag about it online or not. If they end up passing laws that tax people for the value of every intellectual property they've downloaded at their IP address, that's going to be quite the hefty bill. And trust me, they're not going to give you the sale prices when they do their figuring either. It's all MSRP, baby.
Having a VPN isn't going to help you because VPNs DO keep logs of all your traffic no matter how many youtubers will tell you that they don't when they're shilling the services, and the Privacy section of the contract that you signed and didn't read states clearly that they will share your information with the authorities if they're asked for it.
They won't even have to use the labor of one of their new 87,000 agents to do any of this either. It can all be done via computer programs in current year.
Good luck.
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=65949&mid=11902
34#1190234
Quote:The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Trump added $8.4 trillion to the national debt and yet I didn't hear complaints from the stereotypical Trumptard about it. https://thehill.com/business/4426965-trump-added-8-4-trillion-to-the-n
ational-debt-analysis/
Yeah. You keep "forgetting" how much of that was after Democrats worked with China to unleash Covid on America because there was zero chance they were going to win the 2020 election before they derailed literally every life in the entire world for years.
And now, ever since then, we just piss away trillions every year without thinking about it and the country is falling to shit anyhow.
Whatever.
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Download a free copy of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Size: 1,000.03 MB
https://yts.mx/movies/ghostbusters-frozen-empire-2024
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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