Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Friday, August 2, 2024 09:17
VIEWED: 13031
PAGE 15 of 25
Did we really need another Willy Wonka?
Seriously... Why are people even going to this thing?
It's already made $12 Million in the UK alone before it opened here this weekend, with $43 Million on the books internationally.
And from the looks of it. 1/4 to 1/3rd of the countries its going to be showing in didn't get it until this weekend or later too.
It's going to need $312.5 Million to break even. The weak $3.5 Million on preview night has Bruce's opening weekend prediction at $32 Million.
If that's correct, there's very little chance this movie breaks even, and it will be another movie that Barbie pays for in 2023.
I haven't updated the lists for a while, but I doubt very much between Wonka and Aquaman 2 that Warner Bros. is going to come close to losing money in 2023...
But if WB ends up only banking $500 Million after destroying everybody else with Barbie, that's a pretty sad result for them.
Make new shit, Hollywood.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Wonka makes $10.9 Million on Opening Night after subtracting $3.5 Million from preview Thursday.
Considering that it's (probably) made for a young, family-friendly audience, it's probably going to end up doing better than Bruce's $31.9 Million prediction. To be fair to Bruce, he did say that "$40 Million doesn't look out of the question.".
I don't think it's making $40 Million.
I believe that its international box office should more than double from its $43 Million opening weekend outside of the US pretty easily. Most films that aren't complete failures generally tend to double their opening weekend within the next 7 days internationally, and with it opening in Australia, France, Italy Poland, New Zealand and other countries on top of that, I think an additional $50 to $55 Million is probably in the cards for the international numbers once they're reconciled.
Wonka will probably end up somewhere between $130 and $140 Million after this weekend with the new international numbers.
Not too shabby on a $125 Million budget on paper, but it had a $43 Million head start in quite a few countries, so it didn't actually gross more than its production budget opening weekend in reality... which is almost a prerequisite these days for ultimately breaking even.
No. I don't think Wonka is going to break even and hit $312.5 Million worldwide.
But it won't miss the mark by all that much. It could have been much worse for Warner Bros.
It's got a few extra chances though... It is coming out right before Christmas, so that's a full two weeks where kids are going to be off of school. And if Aquaman 2 does as bad as I think everybody pretty much expects it to, that might help Wonka leg out an actual minor win in the end.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I don't think it's making $40 Million.
Looks like $39 Million from projections. But I'm sure they lowballed it so maybe it did hit $40 Million.
Quote:
I believe that its international box office should more than double from its $43 Million opening weekend outside of the US pretty easily. Most films that aren't complete failures generally tend to double their opening weekend within the next 7 days internationally, and with it opening in Australia, France, Italy Poland, New Zealand and other countries on top of that, I think an additional $50 to $55 Million is probably in the cards for the international numbers once they're reconciled.
Wonka will probably end up somewhere between $130 and $140 Million after this weekend with the new international numbers.
$151 Million, actually. $112 Million overseas already, so wow... It pulled in an additional $69 Million internationally from last week. Apparently I underestimated how well it was going to do overseas.
Still nothing I'd ever watch, but with close to half of what it needs to break even with only 2 weekends internationally and 1 weekend here, it will probably eek out a modest profit.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Bruce disagrees with me on Wonka. I guess that musicals actually have strong legs? Really?
He's saying it could make $200 Million in the US alone based off of a $39 Million opening weekend.
I figured the fact that Christmas break is here, Aquaman 2 is going to be a massive bomb, Wonka's international numbers are pretty decent, on top of the fact nothing else is coming out to hurt its chances all looked good for Wonka made me state that it probably eeks out a win, but $200 Million+ in the US???
I dunno man. Maybe I'll eat another dish of crow here and Wonka will end up being a great success.
Personally, I can't stand musicals. The only one I could actually watch again was Little Shop of Horrors from the 80's, but I'd like to think that movie was special even though I have to admit it is a huge source of nostalgia for how many times my brothers and I watched it after I'd taped it off of cable TV when we were little.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
To add insult to injury this weekend for Warner Bros. after the embarrassment of Aquaman II grossing $2 Million less than Shazam II did in the US on opening weekend, Wonka wasn't the reason for the poor showing. With some media sites claiming such high expectations for Wonka's second weekend that it might have made more than A2 and taken 1st place two weekends in a row, it appears that Wonka fell -55% and only grossed $17.7 Million stateside on Weekend 2.
That's actually a respectable 2nd weekend showing for Wonka, if it weren't for the unattainably high expectations the media set for it.
With $246.5 Million in the bank already and international numbers still to come in for the weekend, Wonka is in very little danger of not breaking even. It only needs to gross $312.5 Million worldwide to make it there, and it did very well during the first week, grossing no less than $4.2 Million per day, and we're in the middle of Christmas break so the drop shouldn't be more than 55% next week.
Wonka WILL make money. But unfortunately for Warner Bros., it's not going to make anywhere near the kind of money it would need to offset the upcoming losses it's going to have to eat for Aquaman 2, it's fourth and final Comic Book failure of 2023.
Barbie is going to cover that one too, and that's going to leave Warner Bros. with very little to celebrate in 2023 after putting out the highest grossing movie of the year by far.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I'm not going to update the tables until after the new year, but I did update all the figures and all the new movies in my spreadsheet. Quite a lot has changed since October 31st and the places that the studios have are a lot different than they were just a few months ago.
Universal and Disney probably had the biggest changes with both of them losing quite a bit since October 31st. Disney won't make that back, but Universal should probably easily get back over $1.5 Billion in profit by the time their newest movies run their course.
It will be a while until the lists are finalized. I'm still seeing the final worldwide totals for movies 6 and 7 months old changing. For example, Super Mario Bros has added about $2 Million since the October 31st update.
Poor Lionsgate though... Even with the recent win on Songbirds & Snakes, they're still about $100 Million in the hole for 2023. They had a couple of flops this year, but Expendables 4 really killed them in the end.
Warner Bros. was just obliterated by their DC brand this year. Even though Barbie grossed nearly $1.5 Billion worldwide, their profit for 2023 is now only $365 Million.
And if you take the 4 or 5 studios that actually made a profit in 2023 outside of Universal and added all their profits up, it's just barely 1/2 of Universal's profits. And a large percentage of that non-Universal profit is Angel Studios' for Sound of Freedom.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2024
This is what 2024 is looking like, there are few that may be worth a look.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2024
This is what 2024 is looking like, there are few that may be worth a look.
Any bets on which will be the big ones?
That could be fun. Archiving that list before the new year starts and everybody give their top 10 picks for either worldwide gross or ww gross vs production budget (profitability).
We couldn't predict when new movies would break up that schedule or when movies were pushed off until 2025 or later, but with the archive backup we'd know which movies weren't on the list when we all made our guesses.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2024
This is what 2024 is looking like, there are few that may be worth a look.
Any bets on which will be the big ones?
That could be fun. Archiving that list before the new year starts and everybody give their top 10 picks for either worldwide gross or ww gross vs production budget (profitability).
We couldn't predict when new movies would break up that schedule or when movies were pushed off until 2025 or later, but with the archive backup we'd know which movies weren't on the list when we all made our guesses.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
Joker 2, Ghostbusters 4 and Deadpool 3 will likely do well, they have built in fan bases, there may be some surprises. The Fall Guy looks like fun, it may do well. BUT, 2024 is an election year, I'm sure somebody will shoot their mouth off chase off some audience members.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2024
This is what 2024 is looking like, there are few that may be worth a look.
Any bets on which will be the big ones?
That could be fun. Archiving that list before the new year starts and everybody give their top 10 picks for either worldwide gross or ww gross vs production budget (profitability).
We couldn't predict when new movies would break up that schedule or when movies were pushed off until 2025 or later, but with the archive backup we'd know which movies weren't on the list when we all made our guesses.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
Joker 2, Ghostbusters 4 and Deadpool 3 will likely do well, they have built in fan bases, there may be some surprises.
My guess is that out of the 3 of them, Ghostbusters 4 is going to be a failure.
Afterlife only made $203.6 Million on a $75 Million budget. It needed $187.5 Million to break even. Almost not even worth making another sequel, really, since it only made 108.6% of the breakeven point.
Comparatively, Songbirds & Snakes has made $303.3 Million on a $100 Million budget so far, which is 121.3% of what it needed to break even, and it will probably end its worldwide run somewhere between 130 and 135% of what it needed. So not only was Songbirds & Snakes a success in the end, but it was more successful than Ghostbusters 3 was.
There's been too much damage done to that brand. Not just the 2016 mistake, but the fact they left it dormant for decades. I was one of the biggest Ghostbusters fans in the world when I was a kid after I watched it with my old man and I remember watching every episode of the cartoon with him and my brothers growing up, but I haven't bothered watching Afterlife yet. It may have been a step in the right direction after the 2016 bomb, but to me it comes off just as cynical. Ghostbusters was never supposed to be FOR KIDS. It was something we felt like we were getting away with watching that we shouldn't have been watching. Even the first season of the cartoon was pretty adult themed most of the time before the Studio Execs got involved and made it a dumb kids cartoon.
So I guess there's my first meaningful prediction for 2024. Unless Sony managed to lower the production budget for Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire to only $60 Million or less, my guess is that it doesn't break even. At least not on its own. They could probably try to really get kids excited about the toys again, and maybe put out a new cartoon to keep them coming back for more. There probably is a big potential for merchandising the brand again after all these years if they do it right. There is a huge void left in that area by Star Wars and Marvel toys not selling. I just wonder if kids really care about playing with action figures anymore when so much entertainment is available digitally these days.
Quote:
The Fall Guy looks like fun, it may do well. BUT, 2024 is an election year, I'm sure somebody will shoot their mouth off chase off some audience members.
Yeah... I'm sure we're in for a lot more preaching in 2024.
Keep voting with that wallet.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME