The Taylor Swift and Beyonce Concert Things
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 23:21
VIEWED: 9224
PAGE 3 of 6
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (October 13th):
Per Bruce at the-numbers.com tonight:Quote:
This is the moment when I would usually hone our prediction with the benefit of Thursday’s preview numbers. I’m not able to do that this week because of the unusual nature of the previews. They were announced just a couple of days ago after most superfans had already bought tickets, and not all theaters played them. Our model would be looking at those $2.8-million in last-minute ticket sales as pointing towards a weekend around $30 million. We already know domestic pre-sales for this weekend exceed that figure. In other words, the preview number really tells us nothing about how the weekend will turn out.
Yup.Quote:
Bruce predicts an opening Domestic weekend of $130 Million for this and a final Domestic take of $293 Million.
He does not expect this thing to do anywhere near the business that Barbie did at $635 Million Domestic total after a $162 Million weekend.
His Opening Weekend prediction also includes all the Swiftie pre-sales, and I'd assume he's considering this thing to be pretty front-loaded by super-fans while he doesn't expect it to have anywhere near the staying power that Barbie had.
If the Domestic / International split for this concert thing is the same as Barbie's was (44% / 56%) and Bruce's prediction for Domestic is correct, this thing could be looking at making around $660 Million worldwide.
I think that figure is a little bit (or a lot) too ambitious.
If it hit $660 Million worldwide, that would place it at #8 on the list for 2023, beating every mega-budget Disney movie except for Guardians 3 by at least $100 Million and only being topped by Barbie, Super Mario Bros., Oppenheimer, Guardians 3, Fast X, Miles Morales 2 and a movie from China that is in 7th place.
I think this one is more front-loaded than Bruce believes it to be and it's not very likely to get the repeat viewings that the blockbusters get for two simple reasons.
1. A good majority of these overpriced tickets are being purchased by parents that are taking their daughters to see it, and many of them aren't going to be likely to spend that much money on a repeat viewing of this. (When repeat-viewings are a huge part of the revenue of most Super Hero movies, or movies like Super Mario Bros and Barbie).
2. A good deal of those parents probably aren't ultra-mega Swift fans themselves and wouldn't want to sit through another 3 hour concert documentary even if the tickets weren't overpriced.
Because of the weird nature of the pre-sales on this one, I still won't even dare putting out a prediction on this until the 2nd weekend's numbers roll in though, other than to say that I believe $660 Million worldwide is pie-in-the-sky thinking here.
Yeah. Bruce's original prediction of $293 million Domestic was insanity. It's now made just $175.3 Million Domestic.
$244.2 Million worldwide so far, although it appears to be ending its run with only $2.4 Million Domestic this weekend. I think it will probably have no problems crossing $250 Million before it exits theaters.
The Beyonce Concert Thing comes out in 2 weeks.
As I said from the beginning, I don't expect it to do half the business that Taylor Swift does, so a finish behind Shazam II and Blue Beetle is what I expect for that one. With what I assume will be a similar $10-$20 Million budget that will still be a great haul for AMC and Beyonce (assuming that her contract is the same as Taylor's was, and if her husband was involved I'm pretty sure it was at least that good).
Box Office Pro predicts a $27-$36 Million Domestic Opening Weekend and a total Domestic haul of $40-$80 Million. (Compared to Taylor's actual opening weekend of $92.8 Million)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Taylor-Swift-The-Eras-Tour-(2023)#ta
b=box-office
If that outlook for the entire run is true, whether or not it actually hits $80 Mill
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I don't know what changed (in their minds), but BoxOfficePro lowered their opening weekend projection for Beyonce's concert thing to only $14-$25 Million. They do mention that pre-sale pacing is sharply behind Taylor Swift's (which was expected) and hasn't seemed to pick up at all right before release. It must be bad, because they basically cut their prediction in half.
IMO, this tracks, because I don't hear anybody talking about this at all and I'm pretty sure that most people reading this wouldn't even know about it if I wasn't writing about it.
BOP's official prediction is $18 Million, compared to Taylor Swift's $92.8M actual opening weekend.
If they're right, I was being extremely overly generous to Beyonce here by saying it wouldn't make half of what Taylor Swift did. I'm interested in seeing what Bruce predicts later tonight.
There are a LOT of movies in the theaters right now and 5 more being added this weekend. It seems a strange weekend to decide to open her concert thing when next weekend only has one new release that doesn't appear to have much buzz around it.
Is this thing even going to make $80 Million worldwide? If it makes less than $20 Million stateside, it depends entirely on the international draw for sure.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (October 30th):
Although I think I remember hearing that they weren't going to keep it in theaters past the 2nd week of November at first, but now I'm seeing that it will get 13 weeks and won't end its run until some time in January. That being said, I think the (serious) predictions that this would make over $250 Million worldwide were correct. It's only got $47 Million to go and it's still got another 10 weekends in the theaters.
Bruce doesn't list the Eras Tour on his weekly theater counts, but he's been known to miss some movies on that before. I had to double check because Beyonce's thing is coming out this weekend and I thought that maybe they decided to end Taylor's thing so there wasn't any competition. That doesn't appear to be the case since a simple google search give me local showtimes for the next 3 nights.
I'm really not interested enough to do any deep dives and find out if it's still playing internationally or not (and where), so I'm not going to bother trying to pin down an actual final number for this one. But it does now have $248,933,887 Worldwide, and it made $2.3 Million in the US last weekend. Assuming the theater counts in the US weren't slashed to near-nothing to make room for Beyonce's thing, Swift's thing shouldn't have too much of a problem hitting $250 Million by the end of the weekend even if it's done internationally.
If it is still going to be in theaters until sometime in January, it's already got $250 Million, with or without international figures.
I was going to look into how the AMC splits were with both of the performers, but the way that everything is worded is kind of bullshit. I've read that 50% of the money is going to Beyonce, but they don't mention if the theaters get paid first and that's a 50/50 split between AMC and Beyonce after the fact. I assume that it is.
I've then read that Taylor is "splitting" the 57% leftover with AMC after the theaters get a 43% take. I guess I'll assume that "splitting" means 50/50 here as well, but I can't seem to find all the necessary data for either event to see if they got the same deal or not.
This is probably by design if they didn't.
But when I was looking for info on Taylor's split, it looks like she somehow managed to get 85% of the revenue from the tour itself, which is just insanity. Great for her. If she wasn't already a billionaire, she is in 2023. I've seen estimates stating she made anywhere from $4.1 to $6 BILLION on this tour. That's her take. Not the total.
So I guess what I'm saying is, whatever percentage she gets from the AMC deal and even the streaming when it comes out for $20 to rent in 2 weeks is basically moot. She's not even going to make enough from the theaters and streaming to cover the insane taxes she's paying the federal and state governments in April while becoming one of the richest people in the world.
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Well... That was strange...
Beyonce's thing made over $5 Million on Preview Night.
Taylor Swift's only made $2.8 Million on Preview Night.
There must have been a whole lot more walk-up business for Beyonce's thing. I'm going to leave any discussions about racial makeup and computer savvy/credit access for others to ponder.
Despite making over $2.2 Million more than Taylor's thing, Deadline only predicts $20-$25 Million for opening weekend vs. Taylor's $92.8 Million.
https://deadline.com/2023/12/box-office-renaissance-a-film-by-beyonce-
godzilla-minus-one-hunger-games-1235647651/
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Bruce doesn't have a freakin' clue what to think. His model came up with $49 Million for Beyonce's thing, but he doesn't have any faith in that and finishes up his weekly prediction article saying basically "who knows... Songbirds and Snakes could possibly win the weekend again".
He did make a mention that: " Beyoncé’s film posted excellent preview numbers last night, with $5.06 million. That’s quite a bit more than Taylor Swift’s $2.8 million in previews, but that’s not really an apples to apples comparison, as the Swift previews were added to the schedule long after her most enthusiastic fans had bought tickets for later in the weekend."
...
Which is what I noted as well, although he (probably wisely) didn't want to bring up demographics as the leading factor here.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Bruce doesn't have a freakin' clue what to think. His model came up with $49 Million for Beyonce's thing, but he doesn't have any faith in that and finishes up his weekly prediction article saying basically "who knows... Songbirds and Snakes could possibly win the weekend again".
What a disappointing weekend all around, with Beyonce's thing leading the pack.
1. Weekend projections for Beyonce: $21 Million. Bruce predicted $49.9 Million.
2. Songbirds & Snakes projected at $14.5 Million. Bruce predicted $21.2 Million.
3. Godzilla Minus One projected at $11 Million. Bruce predicted $24 Million.
4. Wish projected at $7.4 Million. Bruce predicted $13.1 Million.
5. The Marvels projected at $2.5 Million. Bruce predicted $3.95 Million.
Now Bruce had no confidence at all in his model's $49.9 Million prediction for Beyonce, and I knew that was nuts... But I did think it would probably do better than the low end of the early projections from Media sites after it banked over $5 Million on Preview Thursday which was close to double what Taylor's thing did. So only making $21 Million here for the whole 4 days is a little surprising to me.
Nobody, including the rage-bait/click-bait YouTubers is going to have this conversation, but I did say this on Friday immediately after I saw those preview numbers...
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
There must have been a whole lot more walk-up business for Beyonce's thing. I'm going to leave any discussions about racial makeup and computer savvy/credit access for others to ponder.
Call me a racist (again), which I'm sure Second will if his obsession with me leads him all the way to reading my posts on concert events in the cinema board, but I'm sure there is somebody who wears a suit everyday who noticed this trend and is planning what to do on any future concert releases accordingly. This will never be discussed in public, but they are going to be discussing it behind closed doors.
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Entertainment Weekly: Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé tops box office, stomps all over Godzilla Minus One
Uh-huh. *yawn*
Nobody thought Godzilla Minus One was going to do well.
Beyonce made $27.4 Million worldwide. Bruce said she was going to make $49.9 Million in the US alone.
Also in the EW article...
Quote:
Swift's film of her still ongoing tour broke the record for biggest debut of a concert film, beating out Michael Jackson's 2009 This Is It, with $128 million globally. Bey wrapped up her 56-show Renaissance World Tour in early October, becoming the highest grossing tour by a female artist in history — a record she'll likely cede to Swift's 151-show Eras Tour when it comes to a close next year.
Seriously EW? You wrote this article on December 3rd.
Billboard just wrote an article on November 29th stating that Taylor Swift already made $900 Million with her Eras Tour in 2023 and will likely be the most profitable tour of any act in history when it wraps up next year.
https://www.billboard.com/pro/taylor-swift-eras-tour-top-grossing-glob
al-tour/
According to another EW article from October 3rd, Beyonce's tour made quite a bit less than $900 Million:
Quote:
All in all, Beyoncé's ninth concert tour pulled in $579 million, making it the highest-grossing tour by a female artist in history, and the seventh-highest-grossing tour overall.
https://ew.com/music/beyonce-renaissance-tour-by-the-numbers-records/
It likely wasn't even true that Beyonce held that record on October 3rd, and it certainly isn't true on December 3rd. You either already knew this and you're lying, or whoever wrote these articles for you should be fired and replaced by AI.
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Beyonce's concert thing droped a staggering -75.61% from opening Friday (after removing Thursday's preview numbers).
Any early predictions of mine stating that Beyonce's thing wouldn't make half of Taylor's thing were a drastic understatement. Maybe that was some unrealized "white guilt" buried somewhere deep inside me talking or something.
This thing is pathetic.
It's only grossed $30.1 Million so far.
By this point in Swift's Eras Tour run, her concert thing had already grossed $98,788,501 in the US alone, and hers had a 71.7% / 28.3% Domestic / International split, where Beyonce's concert thing has a 81.8% / 18.2% Domestic / International split.
They might as well just take this thing out of the theaters now. It's making Disney look good.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Beyonce's concert thing droped a staggering -75.61% from opening Friday (after removing Thursday's preview numbers).
...
They might as well just take this thing out of the theaters now. It's making Disney look good.
$5 Million. That's it. It made less this weekend than it did on Preview Thursday last week.
Speaking of making Disney look good, it bumped Wish up to 5th place for the weekend. Wish hadn't seen 5th place since Tuesday.
$33,537,402 Worldwide right now. I'm sure there's some international numbers that haven't been added yet, but not much.
Beyonce is getting half of nothing here. If the thing cost $10 Million (which was the low-end figure for Taylor's thing), it already broke even and there's a few million that AMC and Beyonce are going to split.
But if it cost $20 Million (which was the high-end figure for Taylor's thing), it might not break even before it's pulled out of theaters. $50 Million is a LONG way away when you're sitting at around $35 Million Worldwide after two weekends.
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A FREE copy of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour 2023 is available from
https://yts.mx/movies/taylor-swift-the-eras-tour-2023
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour movie can be rented or purchased online for $19.89 at Prime Video.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/watch-strea
m-taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-film-online-free-1235746604/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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